hi, im new to this although i did some reaserch before venturing into the markets. Im using minimum stakes till i find something that works for me. I have found the market generally drops on the off so as soon as it does i exit, can anybody tell me if im going about it the right way as i know in-play trading can be dangerous. Any help would be greatly appreciated,
Thanks
Dean
In-play trading
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delboy11123
- Posts: 17
- Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:56 pm
wow lots of views but no reply, thankyou. 
Hi Dean
If you have a backround of betting and can judge the likely shape of the race and how it will be run then in-play can be a good strategy. You will need to know each horse in the race and it's racing characteristic - some front run, some come from behind and just as important if the horse is a bridle horse, races lazily, a trier or held up for a burst of speed - I could go on as there is alot to it.
For instance if you know that there is a lone front runner in a race with a small field (8 or less) a back to lay strategy would work well.
However, if you have no experience of betting on horse racing why would you expect to make money if you have no advantage?
If you are completely new to trading (and the horses) learn pre-race trading first and when you are successful use it as a platform to try other things.
If you have a backround of betting and can judge the likely shape of the race and how it will be run then in-play can be a good strategy. You will need to know each horse in the race and it's racing characteristic - some front run, some come from behind and just as important if the horse is a bridle horse, races lazily, a trier or held up for a burst of speed - I could go on as there is alot to it.
For instance if you know that there is a lone front runner in a race with a small field (8 or less) a back to lay strategy would work well.
However, if you have no experience of betting on horse racing why would you expect to make money if you have no advantage?
If you are completely new to trading (and the horses) learn pre-race trading first and when you are successful use it as a platform to try other things.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Inplay trading has higher risks but also higher rewards. I disagree you need to know about the horses etc. I know an inplay trader who doesn't even have pictures let alone know anything about horses. However, I would be surprised if many people could make money that way.
I think it is possible to trade i/r it is somethign I am starting to do more and more of however I do use my knowledge of racing to a degree and would be far from an expert at i/r stuff I am only just finding my feet.
I did read or was told an interesting stat about horses odds i/r and shortening and it was that a large number did trade lower than their prerace price however you should also remember that all bar one will hit 1000.0 in most races!
I think it is possible to trade i/r it is somethign I am starting to do more and more of however I do use my knowledge of racing to a degree and would be far from an expert at i/r stuff I am only just finding my feet.
I did read or was told an interesting stat about horses odds i/r and shortening and it was that a large number did trade lower than their prerace price however you should also remember that all bar one will hit 1000.0 in most races!
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billyford1
- Posts: 39
- Joined: Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:31 pm
In play trading is something i do quite often and can not stress enough the importance of doing your homework beforehand.
Knowing how a horse is ridden and travels though a race is of huge importance when it comes to thinking how a race will unfold and deciding where your exit point should be which you should have a fair idea of before the race starts.
In short do your homework,have a plan and stick to it.
p.s stay away from sprints!
Knowing how a horse is ridden and travels though a race is of huge importance when it comes to thinking how a race will unfold and deciding where your exit point should be which you should have a fair idea of before the race starts.
In short do your homework,have a plan and stick to it.
p.s stay away from sprints!
Hi all,
I've done a lot of work looking at backing the field just before the off & then saving a field lay bet to be reintroduced in-play.I have collected data on historical betfair in-running lowest priced match to see if there is a strategy that is profitable.
So I have played with adjusting stakes dependant of betfair tick size,i.e staking all runners to win a fixed amount per race(say a nominal £10) & then seeing if a lay at -5 ticks or -10 ticks works best.Obviously a -5 tick lay would need 2X the stake of a -10 tick lay.
I've collected data on around 1000 races to see if race type or distance or number of runners is significant.
I'll put up an example of a profitable race to explain further.
Ben
I've done a lot of work looking at backing the field just before the off & then saving a field lay bet to be reintroduced in-play.I have collected data on historical betfair in-running lowest priced match to see if there is a strategy that is profitable.
So I have played with adjusting stakes dependant of betfair tick size,i.e staking all runners to win a fixed amount per race(say a nominal £10) & then seeing if a lay at -5 ticks or -10 ticks works best.Obviously a -5 tick lay would need 2X the stake of a -10 tick lay.
I've collected data on around 1000 races to see if race type or distance or number of runners is significant.
I'll put up an example of a profitable race to explain further.
Ben
Here's an example,
BFSP LTP 5ticks 10ticks 5stake 10stake 5p/l 10p/l
3.7*** 0***** 3.45** 3.2*** 40**** 20
1.93** 1.6*** 1.88** 1.83*200***100
14**** 9***** 11.5** 9***** 4***** 2
22**** 12**** 17**** 12**** 2***** 1
42**** 42**** 32**** 22**** 1***** 0.5
12.5** 11**** 10**** 7.5*** 4***** 2
1000*1000**950***900***0.2***0.1
****************************251.2***125.6**4.8**7.4
So this would have been a profitable race for both 5 & 10 tick strategy.
I don't think I'm the only one looking at this type of thing but would be interested if anyone else has done any work on this?
Ben
BFSP LTP 5ticks 10ticks 5stake 10stake 5p/l 10p/l
3.7*** 0***** 3.45** 3.2*** 40**** 20
1.93** 1.6*** 1.88** 1.83*200***100
14**** 9***** 11.5** 9***** 4***** 2
22**** 12**** 17**** 12**** 2***** 1
42**** 42**** 32**** 22**** 1***** 0.5
12.5** 11**** 10**** 7.5*** 4***** 2
1000*1000**950***900***0.2***0.1
****************************251.2***125.6**4.8**7.4
So this would have been a profitable race for both 5 & 10 tick strategy.
I don't think I'm the only one looking at this type of thing but would be interested if anyone else has done any work on this?
Ben
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delboy11123
- Posts: 17
- Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:56 pm
Thankyou for the advice its much appreciated, i have also said in another post that i cant open the BA manual on my pc for some reason anyone know any alternatives?
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I would contact [email protected] sure they will sort it for you.
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nachtwacht
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 6:19 pm
delboy:
Do you have the Adobe Acrobat Reader installed ?
If so and that is not opening it, you might try out foxit reader.
http://www.foxitsoftware.com/pdf/reader/
All you need is the free viewer.
Do you have the Adobe Acrobat Reader installed ?
If so and that is not opening it, you might try out foxit reader.
http://www.foxitsoftware.com/pdf/reader/
All you need is the free viewer.
To Ben
I did some work on this. Any strategy like backBSP then lay InPlay or the opposite don't work if you would do it on every single race. You have to find an edge. Either by picking your races carefully or working with progressive stakes ect. It's not so easy as it seems but is NOT impossible.
I did some work on this. Any strategy like backBSP then lay InPlay or the opposite don't work if you would do it on every single race. You have to find an edge. Either by picking your races carefully or working with progressive stakes ect. It's not so easy as it seems but is NOT impossible.
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rogerpalmtree
- Posts: 97
- Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2009 3:56 pm
I was going to add a new post for this but this seems a good a place as any to put it. Just something I've been observing recently that in-play horses often seem to get matched at highly speculative prices. For example 3 or 4 days ago a horse was trading at no more than 10's both pre-race and in-play, but looking at the chart after the race there was some money matched at 80's seemingly at random, (i.e it was only one order match at this price then the price came into 10's again). The horse went on to win as well.
It seem to me, (anectdotally anyway), that this happens or a fairly frequent basis. Maybe 2 or 3 times a day. Has anyone got any experience of asking for speculative prices in-play? I understand that in reality it is no doubt harder than I have made it out to be to impliment this stratergy but it still seems to me there may be something in it. Of course you would have to get on the horse in question, and make sure you didn't get into situations where the price you are offering became "fair" or even "value" for others, among other issues. But maybe there is something in this???????
It seem to me, (anectdotally anyway), that this happens or a fairly frequent basis. Maybe 2 or 3 times a day. Has anyone got any experience of asking for speculative prices in-play? I understand that in reality it is no doubt harder than I have made it out to be to impliment this stratergy but it still seems to me there may be something in it. Of course you would have to get on the horse in question, and make sure you didn't get into situations where the price you are offering became "fair" or even "value" for others, among other issues. But maybe there is something in this???????
Hi gutuami,gutuami wrote:To Ben
I did some work on this. Any strategy like backBSP then lay InPlay or the opposite don't work if you would do it on every single race. You have to find an edge. Either by picking your races carefully or working with progressive stakes ect. It's not so easy as it seems but is NOT impossible.
Yes I have found that also & it is the horse that doesn't get matched that kills it of course.
I am currently playing with saving both back & lay bets at + & - 3 ticks to be reintroduced after 1 sec of in-play just before the off.
Still work in progress though.
Ben