Good day gents...
After a quiet monday ,i like the look of todays cards and will be hanging a large hat on BE ALL MAN.Been waiting for the better ground after being withdrawn from race on march 8th,trainer is one of best ,and good jockey ,need i say more.Well e/w terms in the make up of race it looks a good bet.
Im i alone in thinking that the big bookies ,push down the prices on betfair in these smaller midweek meetings ? How can KATCHMORE be odds on? Cheekpieces ,eyeshields etc etc fitted ,horse is not straight forward ,jockeys jury is out,D PIPES horses for me are not running that well.
The main reason i would take this on is the make up of the race,Katchmore will not get its own way upfront ,it might? but there is a lot of pace and if is taken on ,attitude may come into play.So LADBROKES when u read this keep the resistance to the drift coming for the fav .Your 7,s for BE ALL MAN may look big at 3pm.
Jolly if you happen to read this ,i hope you and family are well ,any thoughts would be appreciated as always..
Good luck
John
KATCHMORE,bookmakers manipulation......
Hi John
Just had a quick look at the race.Here's my take:
In Katchmore's last race,it made all and was eased down towards the finish although it wasn't fluent over the last 2 hurdles.Basically,it won its last race easily with plenty to spare.Most of the other runners in the race are either hold-up horses or like to run just off the pace so I can't see anything giving Katchmore a lead except maybe Buckie Boy.Even then that's not certain. Katchmore is top RPR and TS rated by a long way.The RP forecast was evens but there's a non-runner.On that basis,I think this horse is justified in being odds-on. If you must lay this one,lay just before the off provided it is odds on and then trade out in-running if you get the chance.
If Katchmore runs like he did last time,it will go into the lead, stay there and win easily and trading out won't be an option.
Maybe the best option is to lay in running but only if there's other horses up with it?
Me? I'm giving this race a miss.
Just my opinion.
74.5
Just had a quick look at the race.Here's my take:
In Katchmore's last race,it made all and was eased down towards the finish although it wasn't fluent over the last 2 hurdles.Basically,it won its last race easily with plenty to spare.Most of the other runners in the race are either hold-up horses or like to run just off the pace so I can't see anything giving Katchmore a lead except maybe Buckie Boy.Even then that's not certain. Katchmore is top RPR and TS rated by a long way.The RP forecast was evens but there's a non-runner.On that basis,I think this horse is justified in being odds-on. If you must lay this one,lay just before the off provided it is odds on and then trade out in-running if you get the chance.
If Katchmore runs like he did last time,it will go into the lead, stay there and win easily and trading out won't be an option.
Maybe the best option is to lay in running but only if there's other horses up with it?
Me? I'm giving this race a miss.
Just my opinion.
74.5
Morning 74.5
Thanks for reply ,you read the races well,i value your opinion.The more i look at the race the more i cant see Katchmore getting a soft lead.Q.Why T Scudamore not riding ,If pipe was that sure ,why take 10 off its back?
Maybe he has other stuff on.D Pipe is good at getting a horse back out and 1 or 2 quick wins ,i agree .
However i dont think the stable is running well.If Katchmore leads i agree ,could win by ten lengths ,but the other jockeys ,and better jockeys are aware of the tactics,with that in mind BELLAMY could be pushed top go off a bit quick ,is he really a good judge of pace?
BE ALL MAN i think (and hope ) is a nice horse who is crying out for g/f ground.Im hoping the sun shines all day at exeter,the quicker the better.He has plenty speed.
Good luck ,trading today.
Thanks for reply ,you read the races well,i value your opinion.The more i look at the race the more i cant see Katchmore getting a soft lead.Q.Why T Scudamore not riding ,If pipe was that sure ,why take 10 off its back?
Maybe he has other stuff on.D Pipe is good at getting a horse back out and 1 or 2 quick wins ,i agree .
However i dont think the stable is running well.If Katchmore leads i agree ,could win by ten lengths ,but the other jockeys ,and better jockeys are aware of the tactics,with that in mind BELLAMY could be pushed top go off a bit quick ,is he really a good judge of pace?
BE ALL MAN i think (and hope ) is a nice horse who is crying out for g/f ground.Im hoping the sun shines all day at exeter,the quicker the better.He has plenty speed.
Good luck ,trading today.
Johnicarus121 wrote:Morning 74.5
Q.Why T Scudamore not riding ,If pipe was that sure ,why take 10 off its back?
Maybe he has other stuff on.D Pipe is good at getting a horse back out and 1 or 2 quick wins ,i agree .
There's another take on this.If it was ridden by its normal jockey,the horse would be carrying 10 extra pounds giving it no chance.By putting a claimer in the pedals,he's giving the horse a chance of winning.OR,is that what he want's us to think?Maybe the horse has no chance and maybe he knows it.Under these circumstances,laying at odds on is very tasty.
I can't determine which - so I'm staying well clear.
As regards Be All Man - Yes, it has speed because it has run prominently early on in most of its races. Looks to me,though,it has either been improperly trained or has stamina issues and only just gets 2 miles and then only in good ground because it has faded badly in most of its races. Even when it won,it only just held on.It may place today but at its current odds,not for me.
74.5
Money seems to not be there for Katchmore 74.5,the major bookies are manipulating odds on these type of runners these days.They push down on the exchanges and price up accordingly.Dont get me wrong it may win but was never an odds on shot in my book.As for BE ALL MAN i think its run behind POPULATION in NOV gives it a big shout on better ground.The trainer knows exactly what time of day it is,i dont like second guessing but imo 2miles was always the target in hcps.We will see soon enough.What price Katchmore S.P? 2/1?
gl
gl
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well guys you beat me to it. Then again I am just so busy with family issues I have not had a chance until now to log in and it's 13:15 already!
Katchmore won very easily in his last race and on my ratings he his miles in front of this lot. I respect the comment about the 10lb claimer from 74.5 but you know what, I reckon he could beat this lot if Tom Scudamore and the claimer were on board ......only joking really
but seriously this horse is at least 10lbs better than his mark suggests when looked at in the context of this race. I have backed this horse at 2.26 and will look to trade out later.
I cannot see anything in this race to trouble him...famous last words...they all look like trees! The one who may give a decent run at around 30.00 is Osgood and I have taken a small interest at bigger prices.
Good luck if you play!
JG
Katchmore won very easily in his last race and on my ratings he his miles in front of this lot. I respect the comment about the 10lb claimer from 74.5 but you know what, I reckon he could beat this lot if Tom Scudamore and the claimer were on board ......only joking really
but seriously this horse is at least 10lbs better than his mark suggests when looked at in the context of this race. I have backed this horse at 2.26 and will look to trade out later.I cannot see anything in this race to trouble him...famous last words...they all look like trees! The one who may give a decent run at around 30.00 is Osgood and I have taken a small interest at bigger prices.
Good luck if you play!
JG
Ah JOLLY GREEN ,hope you well.
You have me sweating now
Im on at 8/1 for my max each way which will pay not far off what you got cue jumped for at chelt.Its a big enough bet for me and i will be gutted if not in first three as i took BE ALL MAN as a bet to nothing,hoping Dream Performance doesnt go on the ground.
I have a gut feeling that Katchmore has issues,and Pipe isnt 100% with his horses just now.
Have a good day
John
You have me sweating now
Im on at 8/1 for my max each way which will pay not far off what you got cue jumped for at chelt.Its a big enough bet for me and i will be gutted if not in first three as i took BE ALL MAN as a bet to nothing,hoping Dream Performance doesnt go on the ground.I have a gut feeling that Katchmore has issues,and Pipe isnt 100% with his horses just now.
Have a good day
John
I tend to agree with JG.Katchmore is pounds and pounds ahead of this field and probably doesn't need the claimer's 10lbs.If that's the case,why the claimer?It's also drifting (out to 11/10).This doesn't feel right.My feeling is that Katchmore is either going to storm home an easy winner or is going to run a shocker.This race definitely isn't for me.
Be All Man only just gets 2 miles.Today's race is 2m 1f and that may be 1 furlong too far.
Good luck to all who bet this one.
74.5
Be All Man only just gets 2 miles.Today's race is 2m 1f and that may be 1 furlong too far.
Good luck to all who bet this one.
74.5
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
It's certainly not a race to go in heavy - these could be in the glue factory next week...only joking before the RSPCA start chasing me.
74.5 - the drift is nothing new in this type/grade of race I find the smaller layers start the ball rolling and others follow suit. You then tend to find the real market wakes up and the price returns to a more sensible level. TBH I totally ignore what the market is doing if I have taken a view based on form using my ratings and/or opinion. The only way to win at that side of the game is to go against the crowd. That applies to betting when looking for value, I am not advocating someone goes against a trend in the market.
If I am trading and think a price will shorten according to my POV then I will not buck that trend if the opposite happens. In fact, I am more than happy to trade the opposite move if it will make me money.
In the first at Exeter I laid Edgeware Road but it was being backed. I was in at 3.70-3.75 because in my book it could not win and should've been priced at 5.0 if I was creating the tissue. That doesn't mean I was right and the market was wrong, it simply means over the years I know laying a horse at 3.75 when it should be 5.0 is going to make me money in the long term.
I could not think for the life of me why the money was coming for it but I simply laid it for more at lower prices. Despite its biggest rival not finishing it could still only finish 2nd!
The same happened with the Mark Johnston horse Always Eager at Southwell as the mugs/lemmings piled into it again. They backed it at Lingfield over 10f from around 2/1 into 6/4f and it ran no race at all. The sire screams dirt/fast surface and 7/8f but they run it at Southwell over 8f on the deep fibresand!! I mean come on is it only me?
Despite it running over the wrong trip based on the wrong surface there was still money pushing it back towards ~3.0 on the exchanges and 15/8 with the bookies. They must have been rubbing their hands as the mugs lined up to hand over their hard earned while I was laying it win and place for as much money as I could get matched.
It was yet another example of sensibly going against the crowd.
JG
74.5 - the drift is nothing new in this type/grade of race I find the smaller layers start the ball rolling and others follow suit. You then tend to find the real market wakes up and the price returns to a more sensible level. TBH I totally ignore what the market is doing if I have taken a view based on form using my ratings and/or opinion. The only way to win at that side of the game is to go against the crowd. That applies to betting when looking for value, I am not advocating someone goes against a trend in the market.
If I am trading and think a price will shorten according to my POV then I will not buck that trend if the opposite happens. In fact, I am more than happy to trade the opposite move if it will make me money.
In the first at Exeter I laid Edgeware Road but it was being backed. I was in at 3.70-3.75 because in my book it could not win and should've been priced at 5.0 if I was creating the tissue. That doesn't mean I was right and the market was wrong, it simply means over the years I know laying a horse at 3.75 when it should be 5.0 is going to make me money in the long term.
I could not think for the life of me why the money was coming for it but I simply laid it for more at lower prices. Despite its biggest rival not finishing it could still only finish 2nd!
The same happened with the Mark Johnston horse Always Eager at Southwell as the mugs/lemmings piled into it again. They backed it at Lingfield over 10f from around 2/1 into 6/4f and it ran no race at all. The sire screams dirt/fast surface and 7/8f but they run it at Southwell over 8f on the deep fibresand!! I mean come on is it only me?
Despite it running over the wrong trip based on the wrong surface there was still money pushing it back towards ~3.0 on the exchanges and 15/8 with the bookies. They must have been rubbing their hands as the mugs lined up to hand over their hard earned while I was laying it win and place for as much money as I could get matched.It was yet another example of sensibly going against the crowd.
JG
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Osgood did run a good race and I traded out at 5.0 having taken 36 so it was a nice result. I also backed Katchmore at 2.50 as that was simply the wrong price, for me he was a 2.0 shot. That's what happens when a drift starts, others get greedy and jump the queue. That's fine if you're trading but it is easy to keep an open lay in the belief it has drifted therefore it cannot win.
Sorry with your bet Icarus - you need to back Be All Man on a flat easy track. I am not sure horses by Dubawi enjoy undulating tracks IMHO. He was certainly a horse that seemed to enjoy flat tracks and a decent surface and never looked happy at Epsom. Perhaps somewhere like Taunton or Hereford when the sun is shining, I think that would give him his best chance.
Sorry with your bet Icarus - you need to back Be All Man on a flat easy track. I am not sure horses by Dubawi enjoy undulating tracks IMHO. He was certainly a horse that seemed to enjoy flat tracks and a decent surface and never looked happy at Epsom. Perhaps somewhere like Taunton or Hereford when the sun is shining, I think that would give him his best chance.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
My advice, please don't take this the wrong way. Look at the card again and think about what brought you to your conclusion. I make mistakes all the time and when I do, I always go back and look at everything again, including the race video. Perhaps you missed something and when you see all the info again you'll spot something. This can make it easier for you when assessing a race the next time.icarus121 wrote:Won easy .
Good call JG,back to the drawing board for myself.Such is life....
GL
Good advice JG.Looking at Be All Man's past race reports,it has always struggled,even on good ground,to get the 2mile trip.Perhaps it's better run on the flat over 1m6f or even 2m?
74.5
74.5
Last edited by 74.5 on Tue Mar 20, 2012 4:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.