Sedgefield 3:25 - crazy prices??

[JollyGreen]

I don't have too much time but in this race the favourite is the sort I like to take on. Over the years I have made decent profits laying horses that come from the flat and tackle hurdles for the first time. No amount of schooling at home can compare to a race with 8 flights of hurdles in the way! Despite this you will find people lining up to hand over their hard earned. Am I saying this horse cannot win? No, I am saying the price is crazy.

In the post about the 3:00 Carlisle yesterday where Andy (and others) were robbed I mentioned I had laid the front two in the market. Well this is another race where the front two look seriously under priced.

Loden has not shown any form yet but is priced at 4.4 This definitely looks like one to oppose and possibly trade out in running.

The 3rd favourite Bellapais Abbey is of interest because he jumps well and will like this ground. He could give the front two a real run for their money.

Lots of ways to play this so I'll leave you to choose. I think lay the favourite and looking to trade out in running offers a small risk. After 2-3 hurdles you should soon learn how he is jumping and the price will change accordingly.

Remember, small stakes and good luck!

JG

[74.5]

Pass Muster (Betdaq 2.2 back & 2.38 lay) has to be a lay at those odds.He hasn't seen a race track in 167 days.He stays 1m2f well says the Racing Post.Well,that's over the flat.How about 2m1f over hurdles?Totally agree with JG.It's odds are way low.My only concern is that it won't take much to beat the rest of the donkeys in this race because none of them,as far as I can see,stay the trip.Although Sedgefield isn't a hilly testing course,it does undulate and has some tight turns and will test stamina a little. In that case,all Pass Muster has to do to win is to be able to jump a little and stay a little. It's OK laying Pass Muster because it shouldn't win but, for the life of me,what I can't see is some realistic opposition.Therefore,lay and trade out is probably the best option or leave the race alone.
74.5

[Lagos]

Great shout JG ...as ussual

[74.5]

Yup

Good call JG.
74.5

[convoysur-2]

thanks jolly.
Marc

[JollyGreen]

Cheers to all, I hope you made some profit?

I was out so I had to watch in the bookies! I went to the same one as before so the usual comments ensued. Thankfully they did at least show this race. I watched the mugs line up with £5 win Fav £10 win Fav £20 win Fav etc. I was recognised by one of the locals who rather condescendingly asked if I was opposing the favourite? I told him I would stand it all day at that price. His reply reminded me of my Granddad, he was a mug punter too. "Evens the favourite and 5/1 the rest you must be mental" I told him horses had no toes so they couldn't count. That went straight over his head

To be fair Pass Muster jumped okay overall but as they approached the top of the hill I could see the jockey was holding onto air. I had to laugh because as the exact point I knew I was safe the commentator said "Pass Muster is still travelling well in fourth!" He quickly changed his tune and said the favourite now needs riding.

As you know it fell at the last and the local mug said "I bet that was a relief what with him falling at the last, I bet you were sweating?" Where do these people come from? The horse was never going to be better than fourth place. The guy kept chirping so I said "My only concern was Emily Pankhurst's relations jumping in front of all three!" Whoosh... straight over his head again.

Form an orderly queue at the payout window