5:25 Newcastle - back in running?

The sport of kings.
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2047
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

The favourite Tartan Tiger is currently around 4.4 on Betfair and that is a bit too skinny for my liking. If he was 6.0 then I would take a chance on him, in fact I would probably bet each way with a bookmaker. Sadly I don't think he will drift that much :(

However, because of the running style of this horse there is an opportunity if you are willing to play in running. This horse is a stayer and his sire Flemensfirth is well known for producing progeny that stay longer than the Mother in Law! :lol:

Basically this horse struggles to keep up with the early pace and then when everything else starts to tire he is running on. Because of this, I would expect this horse's price to rise in play as he'll probably be out the back being ridden along him at some point!

So you can play one of two ways or both if you are so inclined. Lay him at around 4.4 and then look to trade out in running at a bigger price. If you feel that is a bit risky and don't like to lay at those higher odds then back him in running for a small stake and look to lay as they make their way up the long home straight. I would not be surprised to see him hit 8.0-9.0 in running, maybe double figures. Sadly I cannot predict which horses will lead or how well his nearest priced competitors will perform. For example you may find the market prices in this horse's running style so the drift may not come. You will soon know by watching the market and then it's a case of dumping the bet or perhaps dumping it and then placing a back order. In his last race he touched ~2.64 in running and never won! I have watched his last few races and it seems things are coming together for him so he may go close today.


Good luck if you play

JG
convoysur-2
Posts: 1110
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

brilliant jolly ,thanks for posting.i didnt hold my nerve but i got out with a profit.
peace from donegal ireland.
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2047
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

He touched 15 in running :o

They went a funereal pace and he was pulling his rider's arms out for most of it. He hit his customary flat spot but he outstayed them in the end.

It was very sad to see Milan's Man break down in running.
Boing
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Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:06 pm

Where do I send the cheque? ;)
Zenyatta
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Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Jolly's tipping abilities have reached Jesus level :D
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superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

i think we should get his posts in a private area of the forum and have BA pay him a retainer as the official BA tipster!

good work JG, top man.
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