Carlisle 1:45 - one to oppose?

[JollyGreen]

It's a real shame this is the first race on the card because we could get a better idea of the ground conditions. The clerk of the course says Good with Good/Soft in places but my reply is "well he would say that wouldn't he!" They generally err on the good side of the ground because it attracts more horses, cynical but true IMHO based on many years of experience.

The reason my interest was raised in this race was the short price of the favourite Maybe I wont. I appreciate some of you will say that 4.2 is too large for you to lay and I do understand that point of view. In terms of price I can see this moving between 4.55-4.60 as a high and maybe 3.80 as a low. If no support comes for another runner you may see closer to 3.55-3.60 but I think money may come for Mitchell's Way.

Okay so let's look at this favourite and I'll explain why I cannot back it! They've brought this horse from the flat where it won quite a few races. If you look at these victories they were all on fast ground and IMHO on easy tracks. Nottingham does have a slight uphill finish but it is a steady climb with a small gradient.

This horse is by Kyllachy, who is basically a sire of sprinters and they generally excel on fast ground. So if today's ground was rattling fast like the M6 then his chances would be enhanced slightly. I cannot record the time of a race to get a correct assessment of the ground so that adds a small issue. However, Carlisle has a stiff uphill finish and so we have to ask if this favourite will still be going well enough to win when they hit the rising ground? If it is softer than good I would to say that is unlikely and he may be found wanting.

This is similar to a recent advice I gave where I said you could lay this in running as they turn for home. Because there is doubt about his stamina we have to think the hill may trouble him. He may travel well throughout the race and his price could shrink dramatically but if he struggles up the hill as I expect him to then you'll get a chance to trade out for a nice profit.

If you prefer to lay in running on the home turn then try placing your lay and if it is matched, queue your closing order using the profit calculator as the movement can be fast and you may not grab it manually. You may find he struggles (hopefully) and this should give you ample opportunity to get out.

As ever, small stakes and good luck.

JG

[JollyGreen]

I had a few PMs about this race mentioning the favourite's last run at Carlisle over C&D where he stayed on. That race was run in a poor time at a slow pace and the winner was more dossing in front than anything else. I am not saying that view is wrong I am saying it is more a case of it being a slowly run race which allowed him to "run on" albeit being ridden hard a long way from home.

I have already taken an each way interest in Mitchell's Way as I think he has a decent chance.

[JollyGreen]

I think a few other people agree with me as this Maybe I Wont has drifted out to 6.0 and my fancy Mitchell's Way has attracted support. I expected some money but not quite as much as this.

Having laid the fav at much lower prices I am trading out and taking a decent no risk return. I would also say he may be too big to lay for some of you? I don't mind backing drifters but when you are laying them it is actually increasing the risk and will affect long term profitability.

[JollyGreen]

I hope some of you at least caught the drift. The early price was way too low hence my interest and it seems that others saw his form/breeding, agreed and this caused a tasty drift!

Maybe I wont.png

[convoysur-2]

great call jolly .
thanks for posting
Marc

[Boing]

Thank you JG!

[JollyGreen]

great call jolly .
thanks for posting
Marc

Sláinte!

[JollyGreen]

Thank you JG!

You are very welcome Boing, very kind of you to post your thanks, I hope you made a nice profit?

JG