Aintree 2:00 13/04/12

[JollyGreen]

I am quite surprised at how the bookies have priced this market? In my book Darlan is a 3.75 shot, that is what I would expect. If you look at the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham this horse was 2nd and was never going to win; not unless they extended the race by 2f! To be perfectly honest I think this horse needs 2m4f minimum at a strong gallop or he needs 2m6f to be seen at his best. His sire is Milan who produces real staying types so I would be worried about betting a horse at 2.68-2.72 when I cannot be assured this shorter trip around a tight course is going to suit him.

If you look at the Cheltenham race and compare the finishing positions you would struggle to rate Darlan that much better than Prospect Wells yet the favourite is 2.7 and prospect Wells is 5.3? I would price them more 3.75 and 4.3 respectively. Even the official handicapper has them a mere 2lbs apart. If you read the press they say that Darlan has more scope for improvement and I would say that's fine, but what is that based on? You would have to make a guess about that and as I have always said, "do not listen to the hype" work only on what you can measure. A lot of this hype is based on connections with JP McManus being the owner, Nicky Henderson the trainer and A P McCoy the jockey.

If you compare the two horses there is very little in it so to me the prices are crazy. I am not saying Darlan cannot win, I am merely saying his price is too low and if you bet horses like this you will ultimately go broke.

The one horse that may give them both a run for their money and that is Vulcanite who ran well for a long way in the Supreme Novices and then faded out of it. This horse is by Dubawi and IMHO I believe his progeny like flat easy tracks. I know Icarus on here has mentioned a couple of his progeny previously and I think this could be another one to watch out for. At Cheltenham he did pull a bit and was hampered as they turned for home. Despite this, he was still travelling well and when they hit the downhill section before then meeting the finishing incline he just dropped back. I think it was the same old problem, he travelled well enough across the top of the Cheltenham course but as soon as they ran downhill he lost his rhythm and that was the end of him. Well Aintree is a tight flat track that can suit these speedy types, it should certainly suit him better than Cheltenham! We have to hope Charlie Longsdon has been working on getting him to settle better and whilst that is a guess, I am much happier to take a chance at 10.0 than I am at 2.70!!

If I was making a book on this race, here is how I would price it to 100%

Darlan 27%
Prospect Wells 23%
Vulcanite 16%
Oscar Dara 12%
Captain Conan 10%
The Rest 12%

I think Vulcanite has a real shout in this race so he could be a good back to lay opportunity. He travels well and should still be going well when push comes to shove. He is currently priced at 10 but I reckon you may get 11-12 later as the punters look to smash up the front two.

Good luck in whatever you do.

JG

[enzabella2009]

My eyes are on Oscara dara. If I had to choose a horse @ higher odds, Oscara dara would be defenately on my top list.
The 9th of march 2012 still lies on my memorys, when Oscara dara won @ Sandown.
I hope I can trade well here. I am looking for a free bet to place on Oscara dara each way and a slight insurance on the favorite.
Good luck all

[enzabella2009]

Thank you Jolly.
I have 10 ticks profit on the favorite and 11 ticks profit on Vulcanite.
I have the free bet and a secure profit.
THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!