Grand National April 14th 2012 - 1st draft selections posted

[JollyGreen]

Well I don't think I can repeat last year's success with the first 4 home but I will give it a try. I checked some of my old results and while last year was the best I had I have previously had 1 2 3 home. Mind you one of those was in the 80s

I have narrowed it down to just 15! Yes just 15 so now I have to trim it some more!

Keep visiting as I will post the final selections in this thread.

JG

[to75ne]

after the last couple of years, especially last year you have nothing to prove, anything else will be a bonus. im sure everyone will be appreciate and enjoy your opinion whatever it maybe, and whatever the outcome. best of luck jollyG.

[JollyGreen]

after the last couple of years, especially last year you have nothing to prove, anything else will be a bonus. im sure everyone will be appreciate and enjoy your opinion whatever it maybe, and whatever the outcome. best of luck jollyG.

Cheers Tony, I always hope for the best but if it doesn't come off then c'est la vie!

To be honest it is just a fun thing in our household and my family are already looking forward to the race!

JG

[Euler]

Bingo on legs!

[Euler]

Seriously though, why is there such a range of prices in such a competitive handicap? When are the weights announced?

[JollyGreen]

Weights have been out for some time now. Synchronised is top weight. I've put a line through him race comes too soon after Gold Cup and Jonjo always said he needs time between his races

[Iron]

JG - Do you find that part of the challenge when assessing form of horses in the National is that many of those horses will have been under-trained prior to previous races, with the aim of gaining a more favorable National handicap?

Jeff

[JollyGreen]

Seriously though, why is there such a range of prices in such a competitive handicap? When are the weights announced?

I know this may sound crazy but the Grand National isn't really competitive at all. It is only considered so based on the size of the field and the attention it receives from the general betting public.

You will not find many serious punters waging large sums on a race like this because so much can go wrong. Having said that, there has been very few shock results, even Mon Mome winning at 100/1 had the profile to win the race...NO, I didn't have it that year but I did have 2nd 3rd 4th and 6th. Here is a list of the previous 10 winners.

Year Horse Age Weight SP

2011 Ballabriggs 10 11-0 14/1
2010 Don't Push It 10 11-5 10/1JF
2009 Mon Mome 9 11-0 100/1
2008 Comply Or Die 9 10-9 7/1JF
2007 Silver Birch 10 10-6 33/1
2006 Numbersixvalverde 10 10-8 11/1
2005 Hedgehunter 9 11-1 7/1F
2004 Amberleigh House 12 10-10 16/1
2003 Monty's Pass 10 10-7 16/1
2002 Bindaree 8 10-4 20/1

You can see that three favourites or Joint Favourites won the race and only two were >20/1. I did have Silver Birch the year he won because he had the profile to win and he had been purchased and trained with the Grand National in mind. I know many horses are supposedly trained for the National but not all of them have the necessary tools to complete the job.

When I choose horses for the Grand National I put a line through horses that fail to meet the first criteria. I keep cutting them until I get a list of around 6-7 horses. Then I look at the prices on offer and I expect them to be 3/1 or higher for a place. So if possible I want ~12/1 for me to personally consider it a bet because I want to play each way. I will then consider a win bet only if the price is <10/1 if the horse is a strong contender based on my selection process.

I also have to factor in my family as they will take my list and choose the horses they like. Occasionally they will add other horses but they don't worry too much about the odds so I try and steer them away from crazy selections.

I'm still cutting runners from this year's race.

JG

[JollyGreen]

Damn! I just heard Tom Segal (Pricewise) on the BBC and he gave Treacle which is definitely one of the horses on my list! That could ruin the price so let's hope it stays around 16/1-20/1!!

[JollyGreen]

Okay so I have a list of 9 at the moment so I need to cut a few more. I am waiting on the weather as the rain may allow me to cut some and finalise my best line up.

Treacle - bloody Pricewise might tip this one!
Sunnyhillboy
Mom Mone
The Midnight Club
State of Play
Killyglen

Two horses I definitely cannot include

Synchronised - Small sort who needs rest between races. He had a hard race in the Gold Cup and I think he'll struggle. He was pulled up in the Irish National when he tried it
Shakalakaboomboom - Henderson has a dreadful record with this race and long distant chasers in general. I know he says this one has been trained with the National in mind but his record is awful and I don't think his horse will enjoy the fences or hustle bustle of the race.

Possible Organisedconfusion meets the criteria but he's a 7yo and a horse that young hasn't won since Hitler cancelled his UK Tour!

That could be it but I'll keep looking!

[Dublin_Flyer]

Scalped from Grand National website:

"8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000"

Using these I narrowed down a good number, but still have about 15 left.

One in particular I like is Alfa Beat, he won the Kerry National twice on ground from good/yielding to soft/heavy, has previous wins over 3m+ on a range of grounds, and has only fallen once, so is a quite solid jumper.
Another I like is Chicago Grey, winner of the 4m chase at Chelt previously, with another win over 3m. Wasn't at Chelt this year, not sure if he had a fault or was kept for this one the trainer has won before.

Most importantly of all, both are greys, so will be easy to spot if they are there or thereabouts on the run in!

[JollyGreen]

Well I am not sure if the ground is going to change or not so for now I am going to stick with the following list. I had others written down but my head is now spinning so much I feel giddy!!

• Treacle
  Sunnyhillboy
  The Midnight Club
  Killyglen

[/b]

I am worried about Mon Mome as he's not been firing of late and State of Play whilst likely to run close and possibly into a place seems unlikely to win.

I wish Organisedconfusion had more experience but at age 7 I have to pass him over.

The housewives of the nation will be having their bets and I can see Synchronised going into around 6/1-7/1 favourite if they really get stuck in!