Well yesterday was supposed to be unlucky as it was Friday the 13th! I never bothered with that rubbish and the winners disproved it too!
Today is going to be tough at Aintree, there are some worthy favourites and I tend to be successful when I can find weakness to exploit.
1:45 Simonsig appears to be much better than his opponents today, I wouldn't bet him at the 1.51 on offer but I would not be keen to lay him either. There is no point opposing horses for the sake of it. If I was certain of the horses well being and someone forced me to bet I might take a small chance with Colour Squadron. This horse looked a real prospect but he hung left at Sandown and then he had a fall at Newbury. I think that set him back and he ran poorly at Cheltenham. You may wonder why would I be interested then? Well this horse is bred for further than 2m so the step up in trip should bring about some improvement. He ran well against Captain Conan who gave a good account of himself yesterday. When you consider those races were short of his optimum distance he did well to run to that level of form. It will be a tough job to beat the favourite but at 12/1 and bigger he should make the frame and if the favourite falters he may give him a race.
The 2:15 see the return of Sprinter Sacre who is an awesome horse, I am excited by his potential. He should win in a hack canter today but I will simply watch and enjoy. If he jumps round I cannot see anything getting near him.
2:50 Aintree. It does annoy when you get just 6 runners in a race of this calibre especially when you look at the participants. Rock on Ruby won probably the worst Champion Hurdle we've seen for years and his namesake has passed him over for Zarkandar. The media are saying this step up in trip will really suit him but you cannot be certain. He is a flat bred horse and his sire is not prolific when it comes to producing horses that definitely stay 2m4f. I would be against both of the Nicholls' runners and I prefer Thousand Stars, this horse could give a good account today and proved the trip and the course are no problem with the result last year. I also like Oscar Whisky who won this last year just holding off Thousand Stars and many said Katie Walsh was at fault on the latter. My concern would be the exertions of the World Hurdle at Cheltenham where Oscar Whisky tried to beat Big Bucks. If that hasn't taken too much out of him he should go well today.
3:25 This is a tricky race and I would have to be against the favourite Chapoturgeon. Yes he looks to be well in based on old handicap marks but he's a quirky sort in my eyes and I wonder if this return to handicap company will suit. I couldn't back him at 3.5, there will be better 3.5 shots! I'd rather have the field running for me but I think this is a race to pass on.
I have given my selections for the Grand National on another thread.
5:05 I am going to use recent Cheltenham form again for this race. Dee EE Williams won this race in 2010 off a mark of 139 and looked to be suited by the track. He sadly suffered a few setbacks and disappeared from public view. He is now back and at Cheltenham he ran well for a very long way and only dropped out in the final furlong. That was a decent performance and I'm hopeful that will have put him spot on for today. He runs prominently so you could even consider a back to lay strategy as he's around 12-13 on Betfair. This track can be okay for front runners and if he gets a decent lead turning for home he should gallop all the way to the line and be hard to catch.
That's about it from me, good luck if you play.
JG
Aintree 14/4/12 - my thoughts on today's cards
-
enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
Hi Jolly,
I have just saw your selection. Well done again.
Luckily Oscar whysky was on my selection as well but I missed Sprinter sacre. What were the SP do you know?
Regards as for Oscar whysky, I thought I was watching the race upside down when I saw Oscar whysky being available @ 3/1 with 3 fences left. I managed to place an extra 200 @ 2,5 when it looked to me the most possible winner.
Ciao
I have just saw your selection. Well done again.
Luckily Oscar whysky was on my selection as well but I missed Sprinter sacre. What were the SP do you know?
Regards as for Oscar whysky, I thought I was watching the race upside down when I saw Oscar whysky being available @ 3/1 with 3 fences left. I managed to place an extra 200 @ 2,5 when it looked to me the most possible winner.
Ciao
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Sprinter Sacre was 1/7f!!!! That's why I just watched!
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well I said it was a tough day and I was correct. Simonsig was impressive and Colour Squadron sadly fell when he looked booked for a place. He's one to keep on side in future races of >2m4f.
I couldn't for the life of me understand the betting on the Aintree Hurdle and was right to oppose the Nicholls' pair. I wish I had done the forecast with Oscar Whisky and Thousand Start, hindsight is something I do not have!
Chapoturgeon was another crazy prized horse and he showed again why is so unreliable. His head goes up and he has his own way of doing things. He was a never nearer third and easy to oppose
The National was profitable for me, my wife was jumping up and down and I was trading out in running at low prices to lock in a decent profit. Caught on the line in a desperate finish! You cannot win 'em all!
Dee EE Williams ran well again and as expected was bang there turning for home. It went to 2.5 in running so I hope it was profitable for anyone who did use a Back to Lay trade.
I'm all analysed out now so I'm taking a break.
JG
I couldn't for the life of me understand the betting on the Aintree Hurdle and was right to oppose the Nicholls' pair. I wish I had done the forecast with Oscar Whisky and Thousand Start, hindsight is something I do not have!
Chapoturgeon was another crazy prized horse and he showed again why is so unreliable. His head goes up and he has his own way of doing things. He was a never nearer third and easy to oppose
The National was profitable for me, my wife was jumping up and down and I was trading out in running at low prices to lock in a decent profit. Caught on the line in a desperate finish! You cannot win 'em all!
Dee EE Williams ran well again and as expected was bang there turning for home. It went to 2.5 in running so I hope it was profitable for anyone who did use a Back to Lay trade.
I'm all analysed out now so I'm taking a break.
JG