Questions of a new trader

[woohoojd]

Got a few questions for you all and would really appreciate your thoughts in relation to trading horses pre off:

(1) is it as possible to profit from trading horses pre-off as it was 2, 3, 5 years ago?

(2) when you are starting off is it a good idea to capture betfair graphs from 30 mins to 5 mins pre off for as many different races as you can (over say a six month period) and then study these for trends?

(3) do you ever act as a 'spoofer' i.e. putting money out there you do not intend to get matched

(4) do weekend races trade differently than weekend races? is it just as likely to be able to profit from weekend races as it is weekday races?

(5) are there any odds ranges you simply won't trade?

(6) do the majority of you automate your trades or do you control it manually?

I have dabbled in and out of trading on a couple of occasions and I don't view it as impossible. I think it intrigues me more than anything. On the occasions I have given it a go I seem to be able to make it work but I get bored. I think you have to live it - you can't go into it half hearted or you're just gambling. If I can get over the boredom point it could be a nice earner for me. Do any of you ever get bored with it? I think it's the constant staring and waiting and if you get bored you get a little trigger happy - patience is a virtue.

[woohoojd]

Also I'm interested to know whether you trade one sport or whether you will trade anything.

Thanks again

[Charon]

You can't bet on everything. Why not? Because you have to depent on information. And you can't get all the info you want/need for too much sports. This is the only way you can bet with profit in the end.

But...

Betting with Bet Angel isn't 100% betting, it's trading. And I think you can trade with profit even if you don't have all the info you are supposed to have.

I'm also starting with Bet Angel, but I just try to familiarize myself with trading/betting on soccer. Maybe in the future I'll expand, but for now I'm trying to understand the program. But it's still betting with the back-up of a lot of information. I've been betting over 7 years now and that didn't involve trading. So it's completely new to me.

Maybe some top traders can tell you more. I can imagine they are fully trading without a lot of info. Maybe they trade on other info like market movement and graphs instead of possible line-ups and injuries.

[woohoojd]

I don't see how you trade soccer. To me it is just betting. Scalping is too risky as goals leave you highly exposed. Swing trading essentially equates to gambling on an event occurring in the game.

[superfrank]

whether you call it professional gambling or trading doesn't matter; it's about whether you have an edge in a market, i.e. an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.

Because they [the casino and the professional gambler] don’t have to know what’s going to happen next, they don’t place any special significance, emotional or otherwise, on each individual hand, spin of the wheel, or roll of the dice. In other words, they’re not encumbered by unrealistic expectations about what is going to happen, nor are their egos involved in a way that makes them have to be right. As a result, it’s easier to stay focussed on keeping the odds in their favour and executing flawlessly, which in turn makes them less susceptible to making costly mistakes. They stay relaxed because they are committed and willing to let the probabilities (their edges) play themselves out, all the while knowing that if their edges are good enough and the sample sizes are big enough, they will come out net winners.

The bottom line is that there is some degree of sophistication to thinking in probabilities, which can take some people a considerable amount of effort to integrate into their mental systems as a functional thinking strategy. Most traders don’t fully understand this; as a result, they mistakenly assume they are thinking in probabilities, because they have some degree of understanding of the concepts.

Traders who have learned to think in probabilities are confident of their overall success, because they commit themselves to taking every trade that conforms to their definition of an edge.
...
They have learned, usually quite painfully, that they don’t know in advance which edges are going to work and which ones aren’t. They have stopped trying to predict outcomes. The have found that by taking every edge, they correspondingly increase their sample size of trades, which in turn gives whatever edge they use ample opportunity to play itself out in their favour, just like casinos.

Mark Douglas, Trading In The Zone

[woohoojd]

Frank - so here are you commenting on the fact that I am viewing soccer markets as a single 'trade' which I am assuming is equal to a gamble when really I need to view it over a much longer term, say 1000 trades, and you know that over that course of time you will win.

So I am not understanding soccer trading as I am isolating each particular trade and thinking "there is a chance this could go wrong" rather than looking over a longer term. I am emotional about it rather than indifferent.

However, I still feel that over longer terms it is hard to make soccer profitable. The only possible thing I could consider researching is time decay over something like goals scored. Say if there is only 1 goal at half time - if it gets to 60 mins and still no goal then the price on under 2.5 goals is likely to fall significantly each few minutes.... but still then a goal could go in in between the back and lay and you'd be stuffed... but I have got to see if over a much larger term than on a one off.

It's tough... I really struggle with it.

[misimiki]

I don't see how you trade soccer. To me it is just betting. Scalping is too risky as goals leave you highly exposed. Swing trading essentially equates to gambling on an event occurring in the game.

Trading football I find, is much easier that horse racing imho. I spent a good two years on the horses and found it incredibly difficult. What I learned about football is that it is an event that is "framed" in much clearer terms and that frame is basically time. A match is 90 minutes long, meaning that from the starting whistle you know that odds in certain markets are going to shorten and in other markets visa versa.

There are plenty of stats and other information available from which you can take a view on a game and the number of different markets allow for an almost infinite number of possibilities.

What I like about football is that there are plenty of insurance possibilities which means that you can protect your stake if you get it wrong and end up with a scratch position, and move on to the next match. Sure this can be frustrating at times but that is when the psychological elements come into play which are equally as important. Scratch 10 games in a row and you might become inclined to take a punt.

I think that one key aspect that you must understand is that in football, you are not always taking a position on a final result which is one mistake that people who don't understand trading make when they tell you that "you can try to explain it as trading all you want, but it really is gambling".

As an example, last season when Arsenal went up to Newcastle and scored 4 goals within 30 minutes most people would have thought that it was game over and that there was nothing of value to find in the match from a betting point of view. A shrewd trader probably would have taken an opposite view based on certain criteria. Yes, the price of Arsenal to win might have been 1.01 and there certainly is no value in that, however there are certain things that you could summize and find some value with. For example St James' Park is a tricky place for many teams to win. the team would have had a HT bollocking from the manager, changes could have been made etc etc and NUFC would at least try to score a goal. Nevertheless If you had Layed Arsenal for 100quid at 1.01 you are taking a 1 pound risk, but not on a risk that NUFC would win. A single early goal might have lifted Arsenal's price to 1.05. Again no value in a Back of Arsenal to win, but on the Lay you have some green. As it happens the match ended 4-4 with NUFC getting 2 penalties so your 1 pound risk would have netted you 100 quid on the result (minus commission of course). But having said that, most traders on that match would probably have taken the view that a 1 pound risk is 1 pound, a quick goal might net me some green, and if scored you could then offset your 1 pound risk with some of that green and put yourself in a no lose situation. A couple of quick-ish goals might see the Arsenal price jump out to 1.15 or so whereby you could take that green and say job done.

Also by using BA (which I love) doesn't magically make you a trader. You can trade perfectly well simply by using Betfair. BA just makes it easier especially the mathematics side of things.

I hope this helps your understanding of trading.

[woohoojd]

Yeah I understand your comments in relation to that game. The other one like that was Angola v Mali. I understand you don't need to trade to the end of the game. I still think it is very very hard to find any kind of edge out there. I am interested in using other markets to offset risk but everyone is surely at this and I just can't seem to figure it out. Are there situations where one market will shoot down further than another shoots up and you can use that to your advantage? I see people take advantage of the over reactions when goals go in... but you have to be rapid to do that plus there is still a chance another goal goes in inbetween placing those two bets. It just seems very very stressful. I simply can't figure it out. What are the typical markets that most traders operate in?

- match odds
- correct score
- under over

... is that it?

Interesting how I asked a lot of pre off horse questions but only got back answers about other sports? Is that because most people trade the other sports and not horses?

[superfrank]

i rarely trade football in-play because i find that others have faster pictures or are "courtsiding" and get to the money faster (which makes trading the time decay edges more difficult). also it seems that others can sometimes beat the delay because Betfair are too slow to suspend which is an added risk i don't like.

my bread and butter is pre-race trading btw - many say it's the most difficult thing to trade and they may be right, but only because it is a bit of a black art which takes several thousand screen hours to get any good at for most (and is subject to much market manipulation).

to answer some of your questions... i don't think it is as "easy" as a few years ago (i think it is more competitive these days) and Betfair cross-matching takes money out of the markets and has also negated some edges. i trade manually and don't use spoof money, not my style, but i know others do it routinely.

[woohoojd]

Thanks Frank - I think I would like to put the hours in and look into pre off horse trading.

[Alpha322]

I don't see how you trade soccer. To me it is just betting. Scalping is too risky as goals leave you highly exposed. Swing trading essentially equates to gambling on an event occurring in the game.

BIG dissagree, i would never return to betting on an outcome of an event, i would rather be able to read what otheres are making the market do and profit of their guesing.With trading you have to have a skilled mindset, its gambaling at first in those first few seconds (well for me) and a set amount that you accept to lose (managed), you keep doing this, by the end of the month you see what you have achieved (if you have stuck to a profitable plan and strategy) When you are all green its a great feeling to sit back or move on and not care who wins or loses the event, them days are over for me and most on here

[woohoojd]

Alpha - I think you misunderstood what I was trying to say. I think that trying to trade soccer markets is too much like betting. I don't see the trading opportunities. Scalping is risky as goals / sending offs can leave you heavily exposed. Swings rely on events happening... i.e. the same as placing a bet on something to happen like a goal.

I can see an opportunity if you can cover multiple markets - for example back under 1.5 goals, back both teams to score, back 2-0 each team... you risk losing if it's 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 etc to a team. But I just think that there is no profit in this as the markets are so efficient. Same as these people who lay the draw and back 0-0... the profit you can make from laying the draw no where near equates to the risk in my opinion.

[Charon]

...Same as these people who lay the draw and back 0-0... the profit you can make from laying the draw no where near equates to the risk in my opinion.

I heavily doubt that. The only thing you need is great match selection. You can create good criteria and find some good matches then. The trade is on the point where the goal is scored. As you all probably know/understand: you don't sit out the whole match.

But still odds/probabilities are important. Traders/Bettors can't win in long term if they are wrong about the %-chance.

IMO Laying the Draw is a hybrid form of betting and trading.

[woohoojd]

The trade is at the point the goal is scored. Agreed but the profit you will make will be minimal. If the dog scores first you won't even have any profit. If another goal goes in whilst you are trying to trade out you will also be in trouble. If no goes in at all do you leave it then? No you probably trade out at 60-70 mins and take another big hit. Just a massive gamble and ain't for me at all.

[CaerMyrddin]

If you had Layed Arsenal for 100quid at 1.01 you are taking a 1 pound risk

Still not worth the risk, surely on 100 games with the scoreline at 4-0 you will have less than 1 that will be a comeback, on average. Peter posted on the blog about this and Frank has also referred to it on this thread. It's something most people fail to understand. I know that on certain occasions the market will come against my position, but I try to make sure that on average it won't, and make a profit out of it. Knowing this is also crucial to take losses. Take it on the chin and move on.