Questions of a new trader

[mugsgame]

I was going to give you some advice and the benefit of many years professional experience.
However, after reading the thread after you asked for some imput from experienced traders you are trying to disagree with what they are telling you, and telling them why it doesn't work.
Well, that's how I read it anyway. Bizarre.
So good luck, but as they say........"I won't be investing (my time). I'm out."

[woohoojd]

Thanks musgame. Sorry if I had a difference on opinion on some of the responses. I thought this was a forum for debate and discussion. You have obviously taken exception to some of my comments and that was not my intention.

Enjoy your day.

* I would like to apologise to any posters who took offence to any of my responses. Your comments are appreciated and I enjoy having the debate.

[Alpha322]

Alpha - I think you misunderstood what I was trying to say. I think that trying to trade soccer markets is too much like betting. I don't see the trading opportunities. Scalping is risky as goals / sending offs can leave you heavily exposed..

Yes i totally agree, i trade football using timming swing methods depending on the odds of the match, equal playing field for goals etc

Same as these people who lay the draw and back 0-0... the profit you can make from laying the draw no where near equates to the risk in my opinion.

I find laying the draw a non profitable strategy over the long term.

[Charon]

@Alpha:

I don't need complete tactics/rules etc; but what can be a long term profitable soccer market? None? (I don't understand this comment: "timming swing methods depending on the odds")

[icarus121]

Woohoojd
Judging by your reactions and response to some feedback/help ,im thinking things may run a little deeper. Im with you on this one Mugs,maybe a troll?there is a few around..


HAGD

[Euler]

I can confirm he isn't a troll. Just showing some frustration I think.

[Euler]

(1) is it as possible to profit from trading horses pre-off as it was 2, 3, 5 years ago?

Yes. A few things have changed, such as the introduction of cross matching. This made it a little harder for certain strategies. But the strategies I use a few years ago and more or less the same.

(2) when you are starting off is it a good idea to capture betfair graphs from 30 mins to 5 mins pre off for as many different races as you can (over say a six month period) and then study these for trends?

I'd say not really but others may disagree on that. It's useful to watch the markets and learn but I'd say that its better to do so by getting stuck in. Data mining or looking at things backwards doesn't always give you any insight. It's better to know what to do when the market goes wrong.

(3) do you ever act as a 'spoofer' i.e. putting money out there you do not intend to get matched

No, I try and stay off the radar. But you regulary see people holding up prices in the market. If I see that I try and guess their net position and oppose it.

(4) do weekend races trade differently than weekend races? is it just as likely to be able to profit from weekend races as it is weekday races?

We are about to start the evening racing. So before long you will get masses of races everyday. My advice is to find a tactic you are good at, practice like hell, learn what markets it works best on then wait for those to appear. Don't try and force money out of each market.

(5) are there any odds ranges you simply won't trade?

Every market has a suitable strategy. You just need to match the market to the strategy.

(6) do the majority of you automate your trades or do you control it manually?

You can both as well or either, in isolation or together. If you are starting out, creating an automated script is a good way of learning about the market and keeping your emotions out of it. You probably wont make any money, but you will learn a great deal about how the markets work and you will also start to refine entry and exit points. Recommended.

Do any of you ever get bored with it?

Frustraded occasionally, bored, never!

[Iron]

Hi Misimiki

Let's say that the true odds of Arsenal winning were 1.01. For it to make sense to lay Arsenal, you have to assume that either:

A. Arsenal are a value lay at 1.01, due to market over-reaction.

And/or

B. Newcastle would be a value back at 1.05 if they were to score, due to market over-reaction.

Otherwise, no long-term edge exists.

If a team have odds of x, you might think 'There's a good chance that the opposition will pull one back'. But if we assume that the market is efficient, then the odds of x will factor into account the chances of that happening.

Jeff

As an example, last season when Arsenal went up to Newcastle and scored 4 goals within 30 minutes most people would have thought that it was game over and that there was nothing of value to find in the match from a betting point of view. A shrewd trader probably would have taken an opposite view based on certain criteria. Yes, the price of Arsenal to win might have been 1.01 and there certainly is no value in that, however there are certain things that you could summize and find some value with. For example St James' Park is a tricky place for many teams to win. the team would have had a HT bollocking from the manager, changes could have been made etc etc and NUFC would at least try to score a goal. Nevertheless If you had Layed Arsenal for 100quid at 1.01 you are taking a 1 pound risk, but not on a risk that NUFC would win. A single early goal might have lifted Arsenal's price to 1.05.

[woohoojd]

Euler initial post - thanks for your support - I am not frustrated I was just disappointed with the reaction I received from mugsgame and thought discussion / debate was a key ingredient in any forum but he / she obviously thinks differently.

Icarus - your comments are neither constructive nor helpful so unfortunately I cannot find a positive thing to say about them.

Alpha - yeah I think swing trading is the only way to go and maybe using multi markets to hedge some of the risk - I hear some people will scalp under 2.5 goals for a whole match (or move on to under 3.5 at some point) which just seems far too risky to me. The key thing I really need to look at is the affect of time.

Euler second post - thanks for your comments in relation to my initial questions. I think that highlights that trading horses is still a viable option and it is possible to do so at week nights and on weekends. Although it is more difficult than in the early days.

I thought that trading horse races pre off was going to be the only way I was going to go but I am starting to notice other potential opportunities in both football and tennis.

Do any of you trade tennis as no one has really mentioned this one?

[Alpha322]

@Alpha:

I don't need complete tactics/rules etc; but what can be a long term profitable soccer market? None? (I don't understand this comment: "timming swing methods depending on the odds")

Am sorry that isnt true. Football believe it or not can be more profitable than trading PRE horse race off. This method was taught to me by another top trader like Peter and it is profitable, but you can only be profitable if you

1 You have a down to earth TRADING PLAN (not a Gambling plan) that you stick to religously even when it seems like its not working (having a drawdown), i went through this last week (Red week it does happen)

2) Dissconnect from the P.N.L of your account and focus on operating that plan (when 30 days is up have a look at it then you will be shocked if you have been trading at a 60/40% win ratio (cutting your losses Faster than a Farrari)

3) Accept the planed 1%, 2% ETC loss and when you come to it move on, dont sit there fighting a bum trade for profit

4) Have a planed exit when in profit and get out there and move on, yes you can get good swings, go for them BUT PROTECT your planned exit profit with a STOP LOSS (the Bomber cant get me)

5) Be a trader not a Gambler even in football, you cannot wait out the whole game (Madness)

[woohoojd]

Alpha - I think I am starting to understand that football trading can be profitable but there are a lot of unusual strategies. You really need to monitor the market at the same time and I think you advice about rules is probably vital i.e. if it hits X price trade out... if a goal is scored trade out... if its a certain score at half time trade out... etc.

Football trading is another option but still not sure it is for me. I am just researching all options for now.

[mcfc1981]

preferred sports to trade in order horseracing,cricket,football,golf,tennis

[woohoojd]

mcfc that's really interesting - heard few people like cricket and get up real early to trade. Read a few people get really statistical on golf and record stroke index etc. Surprised tennis so low down.

[Euler]

My order of preferance is Horse racing, football, tennis. I don't do Cricket but I can see it's trading potential. It's just I have my hands busy enough as it is and I can't really work any harder. I have to say, I will trade anything with suitable volume as a lot of trading techniques can be transplanted across markets. All you need is volume.

Key points on each market: -

Racing - Shed loads of markets each day and over the year. Tons of opportunity and another one along in ten minutes. Perfect trading fodder. The only market you can trade for big numbers at zero net risk of the underlying sports event. (If you don't take it inplay)

Football - Big market and growing. Very well defined boundries to the market. You knwo you upside and downside before you place a trade. Downside, you often can't get enough trades through the market.

Tennis - Perfect position taking market as matches can go on forever. Downside, markets can go on forever! Again, reasonably well defined boundries so that makes it good for limiting risk.

Criciket has similar tendancies to Tennis. But often Cricket clashes horribly with other stuff I am working on so I don't drop them in preferance for a sport I am not an expert on (yet).

[Alpha322]

Alpha - I think I am starting to understand that football trading can be profitable but there are a lot of unusual strategies. You really need to monitor the market at the same time and I think you advice about rules is probably vital i.e. if it hits X price trade out... if a goal is scored trade out... if its a certain score at half time trade out... etc.

Football trading is another option but still not sure it is for me. I am just researching all options for now.

I Understand what you mean but i prefer pre horse race trading, its a win win if you read the market right and if you can do that 60% of the time you will profit, 50% of the time break even but cutting the trade fast even at 50% can still give a good profit Overtime.