This race intrigues me as I cannot understand how the favourite is so short. It's currently priced at 2.72 and I think it may go a little bit lower. If no support comes for the others then you may get this down to 2.56-2.60 which is just
The price may settle closer to 2.64-2.66 and then if another horse(s) attract some support you may hopefully get a nice drift back out.This horse is by Beneficial and his progeny are real stayers. However, I am not convinced that really fast ground will suit him. The RP says it won a point on Gd/Fm but they can be egg and spoon races most of the time and you cannot put too much faith in form like that. I would normally advise taking this horse on but I would just add a note of caution. We cannot be certain of the going based on RP data as it's old and the Clerk of the Course always seem to get it wrong. I called the course and it's raining there currently (1:25) and had been for about 30 minutes. That means the ground may suit the favourite slightly more BUT it may also start to suit other runners.
I could not generally back a horse at ~2.70 unless there was nothing else in the race likely to be suited by conditions. If I look at this race I can give a decent chance to Soulard Counting House, Teenage Kicks and Al Co. You could also say that Orvita and Supreme De Paille are not totally out of it.
Because of the ground query I would not say lay this favourite and forget the race. If I went 2.50 then I would happily take it on all the time as long term I know I would come out ahead. The best way to play this in order to minimise your risk would be
- *Lay pre race and look to trade out in running
*Wait until they turn for home and then lay with a view to trading out
If you lay pre-race I would be amazed that this horse went to the front, ran like a dream and never came under pressure. That should mean the price will drift at some point or it would not shorten so much that you couldn't exit with a small loss. if the horse does come under pressure you should be able to exit with a good profit. If it really struggles then you may get a huge profit. This is a long race so may have to wait until the last 3-4f.
If you wait until they turn for home then the price may have drifted if the horse did struggle as described above and you'll miss the trade. If it has dropped way below 2.0 and the horse is running away with it then simply abstain and wait for another day.
I can see this horse coming under pressure at some point and there being an opportunity to grab a profit. I suggest queuing your order at your chosen point and letting Bet Angel do it for you. Sometimes it can move so quickly you can miss out.
Sorry if that all sounds a bit tentative, it is an intriguing race and one that interests me.
Good luck if you take a chance - small stakes only!
JG
