Cheltenham 3:10 18/4/12 is the favourite really that price?

[JollyGreen]

Well folks it looks a tricky day today when looking at the racing and trying to find an edge. The flat card at Newmarket will probably throw up some opportunities later but they tend to be spur of the moment chances where something is wrong in the market and/or race.

I am off for yet another consultant visit so I am unlikely to be around for most of the afternoon.

The favourite in this race is The Pier trained by David Pipe. It could be a plot horse, to be honest I cannot see any other reason for it being backed from ~8.0 into 4.0 It's drifted out to around 4.3 now so perhaps it's a tipster horse, maybe the "Pipeline" premium rate service has given it?? I try and stay away from that side of things because it can cloud my judgement.

Anyway this horse was second in an Egg and Spoon race last time out and it was 40/1 that day. I know the price is not something to rely on but the slow time definitely is. This race was run 32 seconds slower than standard and they had two hurdles omitted! The stable mate beat him that day and he was rated 128, this horse runs off 127 today. So unless Mr Pipe knows the other horse is much better than 128 how can we as punters be over confident about him today?

If you watch a replay of the race you will also note this horse has a round action definitely suited to soft ground. This is where I find a conundrum and like one of the horses yesterday it would be ideal if we know the exact state of the ground. I live near the Cheltenham course and while we have had some rain, it has been showers only. They have been putting water on the course but that's because we've had very little rain of late and this course drains very quickly. If you also add in the drying wind then you would have to take a leap of faith that it will soft ground.

Is this horse a straight lay? No!
Could you trade this horse in running? Possibly.

I would be amazed if this horse could go to the front and run like a dream all the way to the line. If that looks likely then you could exit if you start to feel concerned. Will it get a soft lead and never be challenged? I doubt it. This is a hold up horse so you'd expect to see him mid division or towards the back until they turn for home. If he comes through on the bridle and wins hard held then I will be amazed as I would expect something else to challenge him. There are 9 horses within 4-5 lbs of each other in this race so I would hope they don't all bomb!

Remember small stakes and enjoy!

JG

PS Thank goodness for Chrome! I wrote this post and my PC froze totally. It needed a power down reset and Chrome managed to restore this page!!

[JollyGreen]

Based on the times of the first two races the ground is Good/soft BUT the rain is still falling in occasional showers so the ground may be starting to soften.

I'm going to watch this now as the concern about the true ground forces me to be cautious.

Furthermore the drift has come from 4.3 out to 7.0 and that is profit enough for me, I don't need to risk laying this horse at the bigger price and neither should you.

[steven1976]

Well done JG.

[JollyGreen]

Well done JG.

Thanks Steven, I wish the rain hadn't come because he would have finished even further behind. The times are all showing Good/Soft ground based on +/- seconds per furlong. If it had been true good ground I would have gone with the trade but a drift from 4.3 out to 7.0 was a nice trade

[steven1976]

Im starting to wonder whether your opinion actually can influence the odds on betfair. I know I took a position and was happy to let it run.

[JollyGreen]

I doubt I could influence the odds on Betfair although it would be nice! The price moves occasionally because other form students pick up on similar vibes and that causes a move.

Glad you made some profit, that is always the main thing!

JG