20/4/12 Fontwell 2:00 - lay to back opportunity

The sport of kings.
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JollyGreen
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Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

The favourite in this race is Ninfea and she was priced around 2.76 which is way too short IMHO! She's drifted out now to around 2.90 which I feel is still a little on the skinny side. I would want to back this horse at around 3.50, that would seem fair if someone forced me to bet. The market may agree with me later, we will have to wait and see. If no support comes for other runners then we may get 2.60 about this horse which would be crazy to me! :shock:

She won her last race but she didn't really beat anything at all, the eventual second is yet to win and the time was nothing special. The ground was definitely good although the report at the start was good/soft. I am not convinced this horse wants any soft in the ground to be seen at her best. I feel she gets this trip but in a true run race over 2m2.5f on good/soft I think it would be the limit of her stamina.

Sadly the rest are al a bit disappointing but on form thus far Rydalis, Mollyow and Hurricane Milly would have a squeak. The former looked promising but then ran over 2m5f at Plumpton in definite Good/Soft ground. I don't think the ground was the problem but 2m5f most probably is. Dropped back to this trip I can see this horse travelling well. Hurricane Milly is trained by Alan King and he is now in form. This horse may need further being by Milan but I can see this horse setting a decent pace. Mollyow was a plater by Flat standards but on her hurdle debut she was running on at the finish over 2m so this extra distance should give her a squeak.

That is three horses with a chance against the favourite and whilst this is not a straight lay there is a chance of laying and backing in running. I cannot see this horse getting it all her own way and last time despite winning she touched 8.0 in running.

If you are happy to lay then aim for <3.0. If the price touches 3.50 then do not lay at those odds unless you intend to trade out in running. 3.50 is about the right price for this horse.

Small stakes, good luck and enjoy!

JG

PS If the rain comes then it should aid us as I am not convinced about this horse on soft going.
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convoysur-2
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Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

Hi Jolly
thanks for your thoughts on it .
i sent you a pm about something ,have a look please if you get time .
Marc
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icarus121
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:07 pm

Good work JG..

Im sure the black stuff will be flowing for MARC if we get this one beat!alot of pacey horses in race,ill be keeping my eye on them going a litte quick and one sneaking up from off the pace.


HGD
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JollyGreen
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Cheers guys

I have made some good profit out of this race already catching the move on Rydalis and the movement on Ninfea. The money for the former is interesting because as I said this horse looked to have prospects so perhaps she's well and this track/ground/distance will suit.

The price on Ninfea seems to get stuck between ~2.80 and 3.00 at the moment but more money for Rydalis and it could push above 3.0

Good luck to all
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CaerMyrddin
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And way we go ;)
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JollyGreen
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They're crawling...need to pick up the pace!!
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74.5
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Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:43 am

Hi Jolly

My calculations,for what they are worth,puts Ninfea's value odds at about 3.9. At < 3.0, it has to be a value lay.
74.5
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icarus121
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Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:07 pm

GREAT START TO THE DAY :D
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convoysur-2
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and marc gets free black stuff.
nice post jolly .
thanks
marc
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JollyGreen
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Wow!

In running they traded 1.01 Lastchanceforlisa 1.08 Mollyow 1.54 Rydalis and Ninfea 1.9!!!
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74.5
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Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:43 am

So Lastchanceforlisa drifts like the proverbial (10/1 > 16/1 at the track) and wins anyway.

Questions need to be asked.

Good call JG.
74.5
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JollyGreen
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74.5 wrote:So Lastchanceforlisa drifts like the proverbial (10/1 > 16/1 at the track) and wins anyway.

Questions need to be asked.

Good call JG.
74.5

Sometimes questions need to be asked but on this occasion I do not think there was anything wrong. You couldn't back the winner as she'd only won a PTP and had no form to go on. It would take a leap of extraordinary faith to put much on her so that would account for the drift. I thought the 2nd and 3rd had a chance hence including them in my OP. I think Hurricane Milly must have a problem because her pedigree suggests stamina and she went out like a light before push came to shove.
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74.5
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Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:43 am

Hi Jolly
Thanks for the reply.

I have to beg to differ,good sir.

If you look at the pre-race betting at the track, yes there were odds movements on the other horses, but nothing major. About the worst offenders were Champagne Flora (9/1 > 11/1) and Rydalis (7/2 > 11/4).Therefore,it seems unlikely that Lastchanceforlisa's drift was caused by collateral odds changes. It has to be that it drifted because no one wanted to back her.That's not unsurprising given that she's only been running in points.Having said that,she won her last race and was twice second in her last 5 efforts.Not only that, when she won her last race,it was over 3 miles so we know she stays - especially as today's race was over 2m 2f. I know points are often low class affairs but even so, there was a little form there and she couldn't be discounted as we saw.

So why the drift?

Had she run badly - no problem. Then I totally agree with you. The drift was justified. But, she drifted barge-like and still won.Then, I ask questions.

Not only that, she should have opened at nearer 16/1. Yet, she opens at 10/1.

Now do you see why I'm a tad puzzled?
Nothing adds up.
74.5
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JollyGreen
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I think you answered your own question. As I said in the earlier reply, she's only won a PTP so it would be a leap of faith for anyone to back her. I just rang a good friend of mine at the track and he said there wasn't a penny going in the satchels. She drifted because nobody was backing her I think we both have said and agree on that. I will call a bookie mate of mine between races and see if he's at Fontwell today, he'll tell me if there was any activity. He may not have gone today though, he may be at Newbury.

I'll get back to you.

JG
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74.5
Posts: 102
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:43 am

Thanks for that JG.Much appreciated.
I've learned a lot from looking at races with unexpected outcomes - far more than I've ever learned where the race outcome was totally expected.Hence the interest.

I totally agree, it would have taken a big leap of faith to back her.In that case,why did she open at the track at 10/1 instead of about 16/1 as she should have?

Early money for her this morning,maybe? If that was the case,if it took a leap of faith to back her,someone must have taken it.
74.5
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