PUNCHESTOWN FESTIVAL Day 1..newbie pointers..

The sport of kings.
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icarus121
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:07 pm

Morning Gents..


Busy day ahead what ever your trading style i guess!

The Punchestown festival being at the end of a long season proper will throw up a few shock results im sure with some horses having had a long hard season.
My trading style has evolved of late although i have a long way to go ,(still a newbie) my take on trading options has improved.There are many opportunities every day,,(cant always be right though,its a numbers/probability game)that can be harnessed with some good feedback/help from some good savy individuals on the forum.

Anyways here are a couple of thoughts that may kick off a busy day/weeks trading ,nice to play with the markets money yes?

Punch 15.40 BOXER GEORGE, 2/1 ,trading 3.2 .18 runners ,3miles chase,am jockeys,soft ground.Yes it has the best form on offer but surely will need abit of luck in running giving the running style.ENOUGH SAID,for me has to trade alot bigger in run,but might win.
Punch 16.20 TRIFOLIUM ,4/7, trading 1.61.Cant do a lot of damage with this one,and ill be getting stuck in. A Mullins has a few in race that may mix it up a little tactically,expect Mccoy to try to go off in front.Had a long old season ,its not a machine! Well it could pull away and win by 8 lenghts and that arguement would be shot ,but for me 1.6 is short ,especially at this time of year.

Good luck if you play,and remember patience is the key,(and staking plan of course),its a numbers game,all newbies like me you have been advised,listen to the guys that have got the t shirt maybe one day we will be half as good as them...... 8-)

HGD
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74.5
Posts: 102
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:43 am

Hi Icarus

My take is this:

Boxer Georg is now 85/40.It's a decent enough horse but not that much better than some of its rivals.It could win but 3 miles on soft is a long way and much could happen,especially as there's 17 other horses to consider.In that context,85/40 is low and a lay to back seems a good option.In some ways,85/40 is high and a lay to back isn't a good option.On balance,I think waiting to see what the price does is probably what I'll do.I have a feeling that it could trade lower before the off.A lay to back is then a lot more appealing.

As for Trifolium (now 4/7).I think you are spot on.4/7 is way too low.It's a decent horse but doesn't deserve to be 4/7,IMHO.

As for Alderwood (McCoy's mount).McCoy doesn't often go into the lead.He likes to get his horse settled first. Then,he starts pressing to see if the horse has an engine that is capable of winning.If not, he let's the horse come in in its own good time and saves it for another day.If it has an engine,he'll push it to just off the pace and lay up to give it a rest.Then, he starts to press the horse for an effort.If it responds,he keeps pressing for the win.If the horse doesn't respond,he'll ease off and let it coast in.At 3/1,Alderwood is a big price.

These are just my opinions.
74.5
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icarus121
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:07 pm

AFTERNOON ALL!!! Weather is bad here in scotland ,i wonder how much of this rain has got into the ground at PUNCH?..

74.5,i agree with you with regard to Boxer,STARTING TO DRIFT ,i will be out if goes over 4.0 with a nice green :mrgreen: the more a look at the 16.20 the more i feel like filling my boots.(might even throw caution to the wind on this one).I disagree with you about MCcoy today ,he has to go from the front after his last ride on the horse.He got a feel for ALDERWOOD 2 runs ago ,and im thinking he told the trainer how the horse should be ridden.
p.s Have a look at both trainers form as well,,interesting.

Im not big fan of mccoy but respect he is a top judge and horseman.Davy Russell for me,the jury is out..the race could be bent anyways!!! ;)
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74.5
Posts: 102
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:43 am

Icarus

Gonna be interesting watching - whoever is right.
Luck.
74.5
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74.5
Posts: 102
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:43 am

Boxer Georg out to 3.9. I'm leaving this one alone.Had it been around 3.0 a lay to back would have been just the ticket.
74.5
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icarus121
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:07 pm

Great start to the day,hope the next race is that easy...I got a feeling it wont be,didnt get a certificate that said it would be either..Damm 8-)
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74.5
Posts: 102
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:43 am

Good start Icarus.
74.5
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icarus121
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:07 pm

Hedging on the side of no trade,Punch 5.30 unless SIZING EUROPE drifts which it may do after that last shorty getting beat.1.65 ish and lay at half odds could be a play .

P.S WISH MCCOY WAS ON THIS ONE...

HGD
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74.5
Posts: 102
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 9:43 am

icarus121 wrote:Hedging on the side of no trade,Punch 5.30 unless SIZING EUROPE drifts which it may do after that last shorty getting beat.1.65 ish and lay at half odds could be a play .

P.S WISH MCCOY WAS ON THIS ONE...

HGD
Then it would be easy and where would the challenge be?
74.5
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