Questions of a new trader
Been paper trading a few football games this week using multi markets. Been interesting and I think there are opportunities. You can constantly re-assess the score and time and decide whether to be more aggressive or hedge out. When they go right you can roughly make 30% on the total value of the stakes you place... if they go wrong you are usually in a 5-10% loss position. However, if you are unfortunate and 2 quick goals are scored you could be fully exposed for all your stake. It's more of a calculated gamble then pure trading.
Also anyone trade snooker? World Champs start this weekend and seems like a classic sport to trade. Lots of ups and downs just from someone getting a few pots at the table and they don't even need to win the frame for their to be huge movements. Plus lots of nerves and misses.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
pre-race trading is my b&b and financial trading 2nd preference. of the other sports cricket is preferred (not dissimilar to tennis trading but much more watchable and interesting- the only good thing about tennis is the scoring system). 'do a bit of football (great liquidity, although i don't rate much it as a trading instrument) and the golf majors.
Since I'm still learning I think this is the correct topic to post my question. This is what happened:
I've tried (practice mode) to lay the draw in the one click screen. 15 Ticks, Stop at 10 ticks, Place stop at 15 ticks. So there was one matched bet and one unmatched.
After 20 minutes it was 2-0 already and odds where way above the 10 ticks. But the bet didn't get matched. Can someone explain me that?
I've tried (practice mode) to lay the draw in the one click screen. 15 Ticks, Stop at 10 ticks, Place stop at 15 ticks. So there was one matched bet and one unmatched.
After 20 minutes it was 2-0 already and odds where way above the 10 ticks. But the bet didn't get matched. Can someone explain me that?
First main bit of trading today and it was a success... £79.31 green up. Decided to go for snooker as it's something I know a bit about and picked the Carter v Trump match tonight. I had in mind the point I was going to enter and then the point I was going to exit if it went well or if it went badly.
If Trump had not missed the pink with that ridiculous clearance he nearly pulled off I would have only been about £40 green across the board. It still feels like gambling to me though as there is no certainty in the outcome so maybe I am not actually trading. I just know that Carter is a very good player who has had a harsh few years. He seemed to be cueing well last tournament and looked good first game.
Do any of you still feel like your gambling? I want to move away from gambling but I just can't see how you can predict how events will unfold... unless you've got the Almanac like Back to the Future.
I've done other little bits of trading with £2 stakes on tennis and footy and I've come out with 10p - 20p greens. There is so much money in the footy pre off that I worry about getting matched when I am sat behind £20,000.
PS if you want any tips I think it could be Carter or Robertson who win this World Champs. O'Sullivan is playing better but is still too much a liability for me. Maguire is not good enough. Hendry is not good enough. Stevens doesn't have an all round game. Higginson is a good player but I think nerves will get to him if he makes it to the latter stages - have to see how he goes against Jones. Sorry for boring you all about snooker.
If Trump had not missed the pink with that ridiculous clearance he nearly pulled off I would have only been about £40 green across the board. It still feels like gambling to me though as there is no certainty in the outcome so maybe I am not actually trading. I just know that Carter is a very good player who has had a harsh few years. He seemed to be cueing well last tournament and looked good first game.
Do any of you still feel like your gambling? I want to move away from gambling but I just can't see how you can predict how events will unfold... unless you've got the Almanac like Back to the Future.
I've done other little bits of trading with £2 stakes on tennis and footy and I've come out with 10p - 20p greens. There is so much money in the footy pre off that I worry about getting matched when I am sat behind £20,000.
PS if you want any tips I think it could be Carter or Robertson who win this World Champs. O'Sullivan is playing better but is still too much a liability for me. Maguire is not good enough. Hendry is not good enough. Stevens doesn't have an all round game. Higginson is a good player but I think nerves will get to him if he makes it to the latter stages - have to see how he goes against Jones. Sorry for boring you all about snooker.
Yes you could be fully exposed for your stake thats why the stake should be in accordence with your capital balance and should be an amount in your plan that you accept to lose (With Football) When pre horse race trading some traders use there whole bankwoohoojd wrote:Been paper trading a few football games this week using multi markets. When they go right you can roughly make 30% on the total value of the stakes you place... if they go wrong you are usually in a 5-10% loss position. However, if you are unfortunate and 2 quick goals are scored you could be fully exposed for all your stake. .
which i find a DANGEROUS strategy, only because of BF wobbly API I only expose a certain percentage of my whole capital. If i want to make more points i top up the account not use more of the bank, the balance in the bank i use to take those managed losses
Yes calculated with a plan, without one Gamble at bestwoohoojd wrote: It's more of a calculated gamble then pure trading.
Hi all... hope everyone is doing well !
Got another question... is it possible to successfully trade the 'bounce' (i.e. the overreaction when, say, a goal is scored) or is every man and their dog doing this?
Would it be possible to automate this kind of trade to make it faster or is there a problem with the match being suspended and then getting your bets in and out?
Many thanks in advance
Got another question... is it possible to successfully trade the 'bounce' (i.e. the overreaction when, say, a goal is scored) or is every man and their dog doing this?
Would it be possible to automate this kind of trade to make it faster or is there a problem with the match being suspended and then getting your bets in and out?
Many thanks in advance
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
sure it's possible but you're right, every man and his dog and the neighbour's dog too (and plenty more waiting for the overreaction in the correction of the original overreaction). there are far better edges.woohoojd wrote:Got another question... is it possible to successfully trade the 'bounce' (i.e. the overreaction when, say, a goal is scored) or is every man and their dog doing this?
'We find that whether bettors over- or underreact to the first goal of a match depends on how “surprising” the goal is. For a goal that is “expected” (i.e., the “favorite” team scores first) or only moderately surprising, bettors tend to underreact. In contrast, bettors tend to overreact when the goal is very surprising.'
From http://ihome.ust.hk/~dchoi/Betfair_ChoiHui.pdf
Remember that the market may well have changed since this research was done, however...
Jeff
From http://ihome.ust.hk/~dchoi/Betfair_ChoiHui.pdf
Remember that the market may well have changed since this research was done, however...
Jeff
woohoojd wrote:H
Got another question... is it possible to successfully trade the 'bounce' (i.e. the overreaction when, say, a goal is scored) or is every man and their dog doing this?