I am wondering if the best course of action is to split my trades into smaller sizes spread over a range of prices or put the whole trade on the one price ?
eg. Should i place say £50 on the Lay side at 5.00 OR split the stake into £10 units at 5.00 , 4.90 . 4.80 , 4.70 , 4.60.Obviously there are positive and negative issues with both , however , the second option gives some protection against the price moving against you as the ` Loss ` would be less if the price reduces.On the other hand the ` Win ` would be less should only part of your trade get matched - say only £30.
One of the reasons i ask is you often see a similar amount appearing over 4 or 5 price points all of a sudden and i`m asking if this is what the ` professionals are doing ` just in case `.I`m not talking about the manipulation of prices using 1,000`s , what i mean is - you can often see for example £200 on 4/5 individual Lay prices and at the same time similar amounts on the opposite Back side.
Thanks in advance.
small or large trading units?
Ok - so 70 views but no replies ! I `ll continue the discussion on the topic with myself and see if anyone agrees / disagrees with my ideas.
I have come to the conclusion that spreading the risk over several price points offers a good chance of success and would suggest this approach with new traders as a starting point to consider when trying to catch the wave. As a rule of thumb, the Fav tends not to trade outside a fairly narrow price range towards the last 3/4 minutes - rarely will a price shoot in or out , remember the Betfair graph is over the previous 24 hours and any massive price fluctuation has already occurred ( as i say , generally speaking ). If a horse has come in from say 3/1 (4.00 ) to 5/2 ( 3.50 )at 3 mins to off time it`s not going to suddenly go to 5/1 ( 6.00 ) .What i`ve found is the price hovers between a band of perhaps 5 ticks up and down depending on price if odds against - or if odds on it could be 10 up or down. Any way , the point is , even if the price moves a little against you , all you need is a slight turnaround to profit - we`ve all had the experience of being ` right` but still losing by redding out too soon.This method is not infallible and you still need to cover yourself with a stop loss as huge fluctuations can happen , however as a novice , using £2 stakes over a wide price range has netted profits over the last week.I`ve no idea if this will continue to work but so far so good.
Any thoughts now........ anyone ?
I have come to the conclusion that spreading the risk over several price points offers a good chance of success and would suggest this approach with new traders as a starting point to consider when trying to catch the wave. As a rule of thumb, the Fav tends not to trade outside a fairly narrow price range towards the last 3/4 minutes - rarely will a price shoot in or out , remember the Betfair graph is over the previous 24 hours and any massive price fluctuation has already occurred ( as i say , generally speaking ). If a horse has come in from say 3/1 (4.00 ) to 5/2 ( 3.50 )at 3 mins to off time it`s not going to suddenly go to 5/1 ( 6.00 ) .What i`ve found is the price hovers between a band of perhaps 5 ticks up and down depending on price if odds against - or if odds on it could be 10 up or down. Any way , the point is , even if the price moves a little against you , all you need is a slight turnaround to profit - we`ve all had the experience of being ` right` but still losing by redding out too soon.This method is not infallible and you still need to cover yourself with a stop loss as huge fluctuations can happen , however as a novice , using £2 stakes over a wide price range has netted profits over the last week.I`ve no idea if this will continue to work but so far so good.
Any thoughts now........ anyone ?
Smaller stakes work better than large stakes because they are easier to fill and they also can't influence the next price movement.
With regard to stakes away from your current price, price moves are limited so if you scale out a trade that sort of makes sense as well. A one tick move is much more likely than a 10 tick move so scaling your exit to match that expectation is a good idea.
With regard to stakes away from your current price, price moves are limited so if you scale out a trade that sort of makes sense as well. A one tick move is much more likely than a 10 tick move so scaling your exit to match that expectation is a good idea.
Your on the right lines JOIZZY , if that type of trading suits your personality .you will get pointed in the right direction on this forum.For me staking plan ,and patience are the key factors...Thats something for nothing to consider.
I would say good luck,but nothing to do with luck... BE CLINICAL,BE POSITIVE ,BE PATIENT.
hgd
J
I would say good luck,but nothing to do with luck... BE CLINICAL,BE POSITIVE ,BE PATIENT.
hgd
J
Hi and thanks for the replies so far.
1.Euler , Can you explain the term ` scale out a trade ` please ? Do you mean - spreading the risk evenly as in my first thoughts ie same stake on each price or do you mean increasing the stake incrementally ie £2 on 4.00 £3 on 3.90 £4 on 3.80 etc . so that when the price turns it does not need to come back as far to get your profit ?
2. Icarus , same sort of question i guess - what do you mean by ` staking plan ` - are you saying what i am suggesting in (1) above more or less ?
I a assuming you don`t mean what `punters` mean by increasing stakes after a loser !
I very much appreciate the time you have both taken to reply.
1.Euler , Can you explain the term ` scale out a trade ` please ? Do you mean - spreading the risk evenly as in my first thoughts ie same stake on each price or do you mean increasing the stake incrementally ie £2 on 4.00 £3 on 3.90 £4 on 3.80 etc . so that when the price turns it does not need to come back as far to get your profit ?
2. Icarus , same sort of question i guess - what do you mean by ` staking plan ` - are you saying what i am suggesting in (1) above more or less ?
I a assuming you don`t mean what `punters` mean by increasing stakes after a loser !
I very much appreciate the time you have both taken to reply.
Listen to EULER hes on the money with that advice.Has fogotten more than i know .Would do you a world of good spend a day reading his posts /blogs etc,follow the breadcrumbs to that pot of gold.
STAY POSITIVE ,thats something you cant pick up !
HGD
STAY POSITIVE ,thats something you cant pick up !
HGD
Hi , Euler - if you put on a successful trade for £1k and the price moves in your favour i can see the benefit of coming out the trade slowly in smaller trades as the price movement could be larger than just a tick or 2, however, as most of us new traders are probably losers , i`m trying to work out how to lose less rather than win more ! I`ve read often the first thing to do is to `not lose`. Can you suggest a way of positioning the trades outside the current prices in case the price moves significantly the wrong way ? Would you recommend gapped trades , progressively larger or smaller amounts or.... arghhhh - i can`t think any more !
I am wondering if others have found what i am finding that i`m winning when the prices stay in a fairly tight range as there are always up and downs but the situations where the prices gets hammered often goes straight through any stop loss position i have set up.
Thanks a lot so far.
I am wondering if others have found what i am finding that i`m winning when the prices stay in a fairly tight range as there are always up and downs but the situations where the prices gets hammered often goes straight through any stop loss position i have set up.
Thanks a lot so far.