Does anyone use this tool for trading.
Reason asking the predicted odds seam to be way off what is actual trading?
Example Kvitova was 3.2 before first game today If she holds tennis trader predicts price is 2.95. the price actually moved to 2.68
Eaxmple kvitova was 3.05 at start of 5th game and tennis trader predicted if she got broke would go to 5.5 ...price only moved to 4.5...
Any thoughts on this... as i had some trading ideas but predicted price was off etc
Betangel tennis trader
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sunnydevon
- Posts: 4
- Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2012 1:36 pm
Are you sure you have it set for a 3 set match and not a 5 set match
I don't have the data from just before the off on this one so I can't check. The match type must be right and you must be on the right server for the best results.
Unfortunately it can only offer a best guess using a model as it can't see the future, so when the match gets underway the markets appraisal of conditions and players may shift slightly. You can re-calibrate if this happens.
Bear in mind odds often don't offer a distorted view as they are skewed by tick size. Only a few % difference in expected vs actual probabilties can therefore look larger than it is in the actual underlying model.
Unfortunately it can only offer a best guess using a model as it can't see the future, so when the match gets underway the markets appraisal of conditions and players may shift slightly. You can re-calibrate if this happens.
Bear in mind odds often don't offer a distorted view as they are skewed by tick size. Only a few % difference in expected vs actual probabilties can therefore look larger than it is in the actual underlying model.
I understand what your saying but just think model be more accurate.
Gone on to tennis trader for final and sharapova is 1.3 tennis trader predicts price will go in 1.28 if she holds and 1.55 if she gets broken. which means if you were to do if for 100 stake you would lose 2.24 but win 14.81 if she get broken. likey to happen is price goes in to 1.21 and maybe 1.45 the other way etc
my point tennis trader is predicting a profit 4 times the other way which we know is not true...why is it doing that?
Gone on to tennis trader for final and sharapova is 1.3 tennis trader predicts price will go in 1.28 if she holds and 1.55 if she gets broken. which means if you were to do if for 100 stake you would lose 2.24 but win 14.81 if she get broken. likey to happen is price goes in to 1.21 and maybe 1.45 the other way etc
my point tennis trader is predicting a profit 4 times the other way which we know is not true...why is it doing that?