The Perfect Betfair Swing Trading Opportunity?

[mugsgame]

DK it seems you are a little hung up with "calculating" how many ticks the market will move. This is the mathematician in you I am more seat of the pants type

As you may have read in my posts I am a big believer in understanding how the market works. You are obviously a very intelligent guy and if you are making money then you must have an understanding of the markets react. Maybe it is lost in translation. But trust me. Big swings can be calculated, not always, but in some situations.

I take issue with your assumption that "most of us scalp". This really isn't the case. You only need to read Euler's post regarding how bets are matched to realise that.

Some of us are arrogant enough to think that Betfair controls the on course market. I don't believe this is the case either. The last 5 mins are controlled by the on course bookies, and they are controlled by the big bookies. The big bookies manage their liabilities depending on what the betting shop punters are backing. The whole eco system is sensitive to many, many variables. Even down to things like jockeys who have had 2 or 3 winners previously on the card. I could go on and on boring you about how the horse racing markets are structured and different things that effect them. In my opinion of course.

There are without doubt certain markets that can me "modelled". Soccer and Tennis, definitely. Racing? No chance. That is why you get big swings. Have you heard of Barney Curley?

PW can you build us a BC model? "Barney Mystic"

[DKDaytrader]

This is definitely a good discussion. I know what you mean, and i get your point of it, but i, the mathmatician, will never agree with you. No matter how you turn it around, then people offering money, has to get out again, this will effect the market somehow.

Even if the bookies are putting a million on the races, the last 5 minutes, somebody are still offering this money. People. That needs to get out if stuck.

How a market works, was first year in my education, so i got my view on the market based on what i have learned from my professor.

We will never agree on this one, if you dont accept that a move of 10 ticks are based on intervals of max 3 ticks at a time.
And again, if i dont agree on your view on it, we are not getting anywhere. So lets leave it there. If your view works for you, and you are profitting, then thats what counts.

I dont know about the last part in your message, but is it something about math? (Havent googled it) If yes, then sure, i can help you out. Hehe.

[y4real]

After a few years trading, and trying to understand the markets, i have realized that the worst thing you can do is over think a race.
I first started out paper trading in practice mode, and i tryid to make a excel sheet that could tell me wich way the markets will go, and after 100s of attempts i think im as close as one can get with a sheet that tells me the most likely way the odds will go. But the absolute biggest turningpoint in my trading was a excel sheet a imade for my P/L, it caputures my p/l from every race during the day from every race, so in my top left side screen i can alwas see how much im up or down.
im thinking of releasing the P/L sheet here on the forum

[James1st]

Predicting swing trades at over 3 ticks is not possible. A market doesnt move 10 ticks at a time, but it moves 1-3 ticks couple of times hitting longer swings.

With that i mean that you can pretty much "predict" the market 1-3 ticks....

Any trader who operates in the BF market has their own "view" on price movements and how they themselves are able to frame those movements into a profitable conceptual view of behaviour.

In reality however the number of traders operating in the final 10 minutes pre race, irrespective of trading methodology (scalpers, swing traders etc) are, as MugsGame points out, a tiny minority and a drop in the ocean when compared to how well bookmakers "control" the BF market to ensure that their liability is managed. Scalpers (moving the market 1-3 ticks) have only a micro effect in the market and the macro direction is controlled by forces that are incomprehensible to most traders.

On the question of market movements, these are specifically controlled by news events (sweating, bolting, etc) and bookmakers liabilities and they generally use a universal system of Support and Resistance levels to determine "reasonableness" and 90% of the time these are the "turning points" in a market.

To claim that every market move is made up from 1-3 tick moves is, to put it politely, a conceptual idea formulated to allow the inventor of this theory to explain price shifts. In reality any movement in odds can be of any size, 3 ticks, 20 ticks or 100 ticks depending on how catastrophic the news item is or how much liability a major bookmaker is trying to offload.

As to the prediction of movement there are also occasions due to the distance from the current odds to the S/R values where it is perfectly possible to predict a move of up to 10 ticks (or more) especially with low odds horses and again those movements are not effected in 1-3 tick bites. A scalper may well, for his own peace of mind, frame his conceptual view from the market action where every 1-3 tick move is usually met with some resistance and there is a zig zag appearance to the linear chart.

There are many instances in all sports and in pre race movement that have sufficient momentum and that can occur within seconds to move a price many many ticks in a straight line and there is certainly no evidence that that movement is being "manufactured" in 1-3 tick bites.

[mugsgame]

Excellent post James

[3virgul14]

Interesting idea that, could be nice to brainstorm a bit over the sheet.

After a few years trading, and trying to understand the markets, i have realized that the worst thing you can do is over think a race.
I first started out paper trading in practice mode, and i tryid to make a excel sheet that could tell me wich way the markets will go, and after 100s of attempts i think im as close as one can get with a sheet that tells me the most likely way the odds will go. But the absolute biggest turningpoint in my trading was a excel sheet a imade for my P/L, it caputures my p/l from every race during the day from every race, so in my top left side screen i can alwas see how much im up or down.
im thinking of releasing the P/L sheet here on the forum