Trading books

[Photon]

Jeff,

I didn't say trend following is not successful. In fact, I'm of the opinion that most successful people on betfair as well as financial trading are trend followers. You're following trend on horse racing pre-off even if you see put your offset bet by a single incremenet on the basis that you can tell which direction has a better force. The point I was making was that knowing David Harding makes millions is neither here nor there. In order to replicate his success you need to spend time and effort in understanding how, why and when market moves and profiting from placing trades that profit from that. You may not be able to predict what the market will do as long as you confidence that you will be on the right side of the market move on more occasions than not than that will be generate profit.

In terms of making 5% on his hedge fund is nothing of significance to anybody apart from himself.

[Iron]

In order to replicate his success you need to spend time and effort in understanding how, why and when market moves and profiting from placing trades that profit from that.

You don't need to understand the why markets move or when they move (although those things do interest me on an intellectual level).

All you need to understand are the simple techniques needed to exploit market inefficiencies (and equally importantly, the psychological strength to remain disciplined!).

You may not be able to predict what the market will do as long as you confidence that you will be on the right side of the market move on more occasions than not than that will be generate profit.

Pure trend followers don't predict - they react. Their long-term strike rate is below 50%.

But if you lose 1 tick every time you're wrong, and make 5 ticks every time the market goes in your favour, it doesn't matter... Those are purely hypothetical numbers, btw.

I know one highly successful guy who goes counter-trend on Betfair, and his strike rate is 40%, but his winners more than pay for his losers.

In terms of making 5% on his hedge fund is nothing of significance to anybody apart from
himself.

There's a reason why Harding grew his business fund from having £100 million under management a few years ago to being the seventh richest hedge fund manager in the Sunday Times Rich List (http://www.therichest.org/nation/sunday ... list-2011/).

My guess is that the performance of his fund over the years has been of significance to people other than just himself...

Jeff

[Groovyelms]

I have been rereading "come into my trading room" by Dr alexander Elder in an attempt to get my head round an overview of financials. There is also a very handy and informative study guide with Q & A that test you on your knowledge as you progress...

BUT this is all therectical and a bout of "Analysis Paralysis" (not my quote) biffed my me on the noggin (Damon Runyon guys and dolls)..metaphorically..

Taking 6 months off whilst I used various demo modes and and observed and read around the subject was great. BUT, it has been the last three months sports trading live that have exposed the areas I need to work on, to really progress and get confortable..
Financials remain for now, in the future
Groovy

[Groovyelms]

Hi All,
If you fancy a laugh and a good read about wall street in the mid eighties, and some of the back ground behind the banking crisis... "Liars Poker" by Michael Lewis is excellent..
groovy