Hi Guys,
I saw quite an interesting topic on the Betfair community forum. Basically some time ago someone mentioned a plan to place 364 bets at 1.02 and putting the full balance on each match, by the end you would have £47,000. Quite rightly someone pointed out that odds of 1.02 implied that 1 in 50 would not win so picking 364 of them would be quite a challenge.
Another recent topic was backing under 6.5 goals, which averages odds of 1.02. From what I can see less than 1 in 50 matches has over 6.5 goals and picking them I think could be doable. Any thoughts?
364 at 1.02
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cloud88111
- Posts: 36
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:56 am
Obviously, before anyone mentions it, I know that at a certain point of this strategy it will be very hard to get 000s filled on a market like this.
Cant understand why people just cant create a normal strategy and develop an edge and be profitable just the same, if you have a big enough bank after one year i bet you 1.01 you will achive this Patience and the drip effect.cloud88111 wrote:Hi Guys,
I saw quite an interesting topic on the Betfair community forum. Basically some time ago someone mentioned a plan to place 364 bets at 1.02 and putting the full balance on each match, by the end you would have £47,000. Quite rightly someone pointed out that odds of 1.02 implied that 1 in 50 would not win so picking 364 of them would be quite a challenge.
Another recent topic was backing under 6.5 goals, which averages odds of 1.02. From what I can see less than 1 in 50 matches has over 6.5 goals and picking them I think could be doable. Any thoughts?
I remember on one course a tutor said forget about your balance and P&L if your trading correctly they will look after themselves
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cloud88111
- Posts: 36
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:56 am
Firstly I have no argument whatsoever that this is a gamblers strategy. I think in an earlier post I did mention I can make a nice profit from weeks of trading then throw it all away on a punt.
Interesting point about the 11 matches being over from 380. You might have noticed that 8 of these all came from the same 3 teams Arsenal, City and United. Chelsea were also involved in 2 but 1 has already been counted as it was against Arsenal so lets say 9 of these 11 matches involved 4 teams.
I would never suggest doing this blindly and I would probably ignore the higher scoring teams. Saying you ignore these 4 teams you then have 240 matches with 2 over 6.5 goals. That can be considered as 1 in 120 but you are getting odds implying 1 in 50 will be over. Just at a quick glance the numbers are fairly similar in La Liga when you discount Barce and Real.
Interesting point about the 11 matches being over from 380. You might have noticed that 8 of these all came from the same 3 teams Arsenal, City and United. Chelsea were also involved in 2 but 1 has already been counted as it was against Arsenal so lets say 9 of these 11 matches involved 4 teams.
I would never suggest doing this blindly and I would probably ignore the higher scoring teams. Saying you ignore these 4 teams you then have 240 matches with 2 over 6.5 goals. That can be considered as 1 in 120 but you are getting odds implying 1 in 50 will be over. Just at a quick glance the numbers are fairly similar in La Liga when you discount Barce and Real.