I have no doubt that many of you will see this as a ridiculous thread but I am curious to see how other people view odds.
My basic point is do you value the same odds differently in different circumstances? As a example say you have a football match with odds H 2, D 4, A 4. Logically you a 50% likelihood of a home win a 25% for the other 2. Now say you have a horse race with 6 runners, fav is 2 and the other 5 are all 10s. Similarly you have a 50% likelihood of the fav winning but 10% for all the others.
Would anyone argue that the football 2 is less valuable than the horse 2? Also maybe consider a fair coin toss? Is there any difference there?
My thinking behind this is that while they have the same likelihood of occurring one is clearly the favourite, the other is but not by as much and the coin does not have a favourite.
As a mathematician I can not dispute that each has the same chance and therefore there is no difference. As a sportsman, however, I would suggest that a runner when compared against its competitors and is so clearly viewed above them that is more of a benefit. Look at it another way,if I am a sprinter running against 1 other who runs the exact same pb as me I might win or lose. If I run against 9 and my pb is 0.1 seconds better than the rest and they all run the same time then I might still be 2s but by all accounts am the fastest. Now any of those 9 might best me on the day but it is mine to lose, where with 2 runners it is stiffer competition.
What are your thoughts?
Value of odds
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
Hi Cloud88111,
I am not an expert but I d like to add my thoughts about your questions.
When I look at the odds on for football and Horses I always feel that the 2/1 odds for horses has more value then 2/1 odds for football. Logically and with a bit of research this is not correct. The odds of football games are generally correct, the horses varies according to the information they have used to calculate the odds and here comes the beauty of horse racing. The informations can be read in a different perspective. If you understood the mechanisms of tactical, this also happens in football, but here statistics play an important role and are extremely efficient in a long-term ... If you do your own research often you reliaze that the odds on favorite on horses don't worth backing it. In football the home team has an advantage and when a Home team is odds on rarely becomes second favorite before kick off. In horses the on odds favorite can drift and became 2nd favorite. In Europe the average is 47% for the home team at all odds, I am not familiar yet with the correct stats for odds on home favorite.
The horses are more complex then football. you need to evaluate the type of race ( Stakes and Handicaps-Maidens-Conditions Races-Group Races-Listed Races-Auction races- Claiming races-Selling races for flat turf and AW) ( Steeplechases (Chases), Hurdles, point to point, handicaps and non handicaps, Novices, ect for Jump)
On each one of this above the odds on favorite has value of backing it or laying it. The big question is why the horse is odds on? Is it because of the stable, Is it because it won the previous race? Did the previous race-track had the same conditions of this one? is the opposition weak? However if you lay odds on favorite on handicap race you will be in profit over time. The odds on favorite suggest that the horse will win once every 2 races but on some of the above conditions the odds on favorite won only once every 4 races. Obviously you can't generalize, you need to pick the right conditions for laying the odds on favorite or the right conditions for backing it. When a football team is odds on favorite there is not much questions about it, you just know the price is correct and can drift of steam but never move out the favorite position and over time there will be one win out of 2 games. If you pick a single team you will find exceptions, Man City last season was 5 times odds on home-favorite and won 5 times, while Man Utd out 3 times won 2 and Arsenal out of 5 times won 2, if we checked the premier league in general we will probably find 50%, more or less, of odds on home-favorite wins...
I am not an expert but I d like to add my thoughts about your questions.
When I look at the odds on for football and Horses I always feel that the 2/1 odds for horses has more value then 2/1 odds for football. Logically and with a bit of research this is not correct. The odds of football games are generally correct, the horses varies according to the information they have used to calculate the odds and here comes the beauty of horse racing. The informations can be read in a different perspective. If you understood the mechanisms of tactical, this also happens in football, but here statistics play an important role and are extremely efficient in a long-term ... If you do your own research often you reliaze that the odds on favorite on horses don't worth backing it. In football the home team has an advantage and when a Home team is odds on rarely becomes second favorite before kick off. In horses the on odds favorite can drift and became 2nd favorite. In Europe the average is 47% for the home team at all odds, I am not familiar yet with the correct stats for odds on home favorite.
The horses are more complex then football. you need to evaluate the type of race ( Stakes and Handicaps-Maidens-Conditions Races-Group Races-Listed Races-Auction races- Claiming races-Selling races for flat turf and AW) ( Steeplechases (Chases), Hurdles, point to point, handicaps and non handicaps, Novices, ect for Jump)
On each one of this above the odds on favorite has value of backing it or laying it. The big question is why the horse is odds on? Is it because of the stable, Is it because it won the previous race? Did the previous race-track had the same conditions of this one? is the opposition weak? However if you lay odds on favorite on handicap race you will be in profit over time. The odds on favorite suggest that the horse will win once every 2 races but on some of the above conditions the odds on favorite won only once every 4 races. Obviously you can't generalize, you need to pick the right conditions for laying the odds on favorite or the right conditions for backing it. When a football team is odds on favorite there is not much questions about it, you just know the price is correct and can drift of steam but never move out the favorite position and over time there will be one win out of 2 games. If you pick a single team you will find exceptions, Man City last season was 5 times odds on home-favorite and won 5 times, while Man Utd out 3 times won 2 and Arsenal out of 5 times won 2, if we checked the premier league in general we will probably find 50%, more or less, of odds on home-favorite wins...