Something I've been thinking about over the last few months is the process of trading football. I've been playing around with several markets with reasonable success (small sample size granted). I've took a strategy of playing around with aspects of a particular game that I think could occur and then using Soccer Mystic to have a look how this idea would relate in terms of price movement. I haven't however considered enough the actual price that I'm getting on a market.
Now don't get me wrong, I haven't touched a market if I think the price is wrong but then at the same time I've only used a minimal amount of statistics in actually determining my thoughts on a price. I guess my question is how important is it to actually find value in the price of a selection before we actually look to trade it? If we assume the market is efficient, does our edge come from our knowledge of how we think a game could go and the price movement associated with this (hence the value of Soccer mystic)?
I'm interested in how the football traders amongst you approach a match.
Trading Football
Bump
I understand you have your own strategies and that's cool, I obviously don't expect you to reveal them.
Could someone just tell me how deep I should be looking into the statistics of a game before I implement any strategy? Fwiw I currently look at a couple of stats sites and use a stats app for evaluating my own impression of how a game could play out.
I literally know very little about pricing a market up but then I'm looking to trade and not bet strictly for value, not sure how concerned I should be with getting a good price though.
I understand you have your own strategies and that's cool, I obviously don't expect you to reveal them.
Could someone just tell me how deep I should be looking into the statistics of a game before I implement any strategy? Fwiw I currently look at a couple of stats sites and use a stats app for evaluating my own impression of how a game could play out.
I literally know very little about pricing a market up but then I'm looking to trade and not bet strictly for value, not sure how concerned I should be with getting a good price though.
Stats are ok to a degree, and can give you an idea of how a match will be priced. There are certain events that can unfold during the lead up to the game, and the early part of the game that will show the market has the price wrong. An example:
Everton are playing Stoke. The market (which is controlled by stats in football to a certain extent) will expect a tight low scoring game. The unders will be low.
After 5 mins there have been 4 attempts on goal, it's a really open attacking game. No one saw this coming. Goals look inevitable. Take a position to back what you are seeing. There will be value in backing overs or laying unders in any of the goals markets.
The stats cannot see the game. You can
There are so many stats junkies trading football there are few mistakes if you are doing the same thing. Think outside the box, that's my advice.
Everton are playing Stoke. The market (which is controlled by stats in football to a certain extent) will expect a tight low scoring game. The unders will be low.
After 5 mins there have been 4 attempts on goal, it's a really open attacking game. No one saw this coming. Goals look inevitable. Take a position to back what you are seeing. There will be value in backing overs or laying unders in any of the goals markets.
The stats cannot see the game. You can
There are so many stats junkies trading football there are few mistakes if you are doing the same thing. Think outside the box, that's my advice.
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evertonian
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:34 am
I' m going to add my two pence worth to this debate for what it's worth.
As a profitable football trader for the last few years, in my opinion to add to the mix you need to use stop losses. For example, you're watching a game between ( let's use the example above ) Everton v Stoke. The market will be expecting a tight game, so the price for a goal will be favourable, i.e you can back the Over 1.5 goals and trade out after a goal and you will have a decent amount of time in the market, probably around 40 / 50 mins Your entry point will be down to your personal choice, but once you have entered you need to set a specific loss point, this may be a minute in the game or may be a pre defined loss.
Let's take another game - Man U at home versus a likely bottom 3 team such as Blackburn. The prices on Over 1.5 goals / Over 2.5 goals will be low ( 1.45 ish on Over 2.5 goals depending on past statistics and goal expectancy etc ) If you enter looking for a goal you will have less time in the market before your stop hits. You will be entering in a fast moving market and the price will be moving away from you quickly - you may have only 20 / 25 mins to get your goal. Yes the market expects a goal but will it come ? In fast moving markets like this what a lot of traders do is trade the movement of the market and exit after a certain time / profit. You will make a good profit , often up to 60% of your stake, if you don't hit a goal in this period.
There are various strategies that you can use. You need to learn how different markets work, whether the market is expecting a goal etc. Remember that often the people making the profit are the ones that go against the masses . The beauty of trading football in play also is that you have access to watching the game, so yes statistics may help, but if you trade watching the games then you will have a big advantage.
If you take the Euro 2012 tournament, the markets in general have been expecting tight matches, therefore the prices have been favourable for goals. Euro 2012 has been a traders dream if you have traded to a pre defined entry and exit point looking for goals, as you have plenty of time in the market , you have had options in play to reduce your potential losses, and there have been further goals to increase your profits further. The markets in the Premier League are different to the Euros in that prices in general, especially on games involving the big 4 at home, expect goals. Make of this what you will !
As a profitable football trader for the last few years, in my opinion to add to the mix you need to use stop losses. For example, you're watching a game between ( let's use the example above ) Everton v Stoke. The market will be expecting a tight game, so the price for a goal will be favourable, i.e you can back the Over 1.5 goals and trade out after a goal and you will have a decent amount of time in the market, probably around 40 / 50 mins Your entry point will be down to your personal choice, but once you have entered you need to set a specific loss point, this may be a minute in the game or may be a pre defined loss.
Let's take another game - Man U at home versus a likely bottom 3 team such as Blackburn. The prices on Over 1.5 goals / Over 2.5 goals will be low ( 1.45 ish on Over 2.5 goals depending on past statistics and goal expectancy etc ) If you enter looking for a goal you will have less time in the market before your stop hits. You will be entering in a fast moving market and the price will be moving away from you quickly - you may have only 20 / 25 mins to get your goal. Yes the market expects a goal but will it come ? In fast moving markets like this what a lot of traders do is trade the movement of the market and exit after a certain time / profit. You will make a good profit , often up to 60% of your stake, if you don't hit a goal in this period.
There are various strategies that you can use. You need to learn how different markets work, whether the market is expecting a goal etc. Remember that often the people making the profit are the ones that go against the masses . The beauty of trading football in play also is that you have access to watching the game, so yes statistics may help, but if you trade watching the games then you will have a big advantage.
If you take the Euro 2012 tournament, the markets in general have been expecting tight matches, therefore the prices have been favourable for goals. Euro 2012 has been a traders dream if you have traded to a pre defined entry and exit point looking for goals, as you have plenty of time in the market , you have had options in play to reduce your potential losses, and there have been further goals to increase your profits further. The markets in the Premier League are different to the Euros in that prices in general, especially on games involving the big 4 at home, expect goals. Make of this what you will !
I've been playing around a lot with form lab black as a means to reinforcing some of my theories about a particular game but I'm kind of struggling in getting my head around any position being profitable in the long run.
Take the Everton vs Stoke example above. Statistics tell us it will be a low scoring affair but by watching the game we determine there could be value in going against the market. Is this just not variance? If we were to repeat this process over a large sample then the times the trade goes against would cancel out the profits made when we were correct. Maybe the key is to become skilled enough to be able to consistently trade at the top range of variance and eliminate the long term evening out process.
Lol that probably makes no sense, I'm kind of just typing what comes into my head!
I've been playing around with a ton of scenarios in soccer mystic but each time I think I've found an opportunity statistics tell me otherwise and I'd actually be break even adopting the strategy.
I guess that's where my biggest problem lies at the minute, finding a strategy where statistics don't have me covered.
Take the Everton vs Stoke example above. Statistics tell us it will be a low scoring affair but by watching the game we determine there could be value in going against the market. Is this just not variance? If we were to repeat this process over a large sample then the times the trade goes against would cancel out the profits made when we were correct. Maybe the key is to become skilled enough to be able to consistently trade at the top range of variance and eliminate the long term evening out process.
Lol that probably makes no sense, I'm kind of just typing what comes into my head!
I've been playing around with a ton of scenarios in soccer mystic but each time I think I've found an opportunity statistics tell me otherwise and I'd actually be break even adopting the strategy.
I guess that's where my biggest problem lies at the minute, finding a strategy where statistics don't have me covered.
I've been playing around with this using Soccer mystic and Form Lab and for the life of me I can't see how any scenario is profitable long term. The market is efficient and moves in line with what statistics would reinforce. With every scenario I've tried the potential profit would be negated by the % chance of it actually happening using statistics over the last 6 seasons in various leagues. This is driving me mad!evertonian wrote:
As a profitable football trader for the last few years, in my opinion to add to the mix you need to use stop losses. For example, you're watching a game between ( let's use the example above ) Everton v Stoke. The market will be expecting a tight game, so the price for a goal will be favourable, i.e you can back the Over 1.5 goals and trade out after a goal and you will have a decent amount of time in the market, probably around 40 / 50 mins Your entry point will be down to your personal choice, but once you have entered you need to set a specific loss point, this may be a minute in the game or may be a pre defined loss.
It all feels to me like going all in with 50% equity in poker. Sure over the short to medium term you can be at the top end of variance and run good winning say 80% of the time over 100 occasions but over the long term you will be nothing better than break even once variance catches up with you. This is my issue, I can't see any situation where statistics don't have you covered over the long term.
I'll play around some more using certain markets as insurance and see if I can see an edge there.
The market IS NOT always efficient.Consty1 wrote:I've been playing around with this using Soccer mystic and Form Lab and for the life of me I can't see how any scenario is profitable long term. The market is efficient and moves in line with what statistics would reinforce. With every scenario I've tried the potential profit would be negated by the % chance of it actually happening using statistics over the last 6 seasons in various leagues. This is driving me mad!
You gotta have an edge over the market, let this be your skills `reading the gameplay` or spotting too low odds.
Take HT 0-0 market for instance, most of the times when a game starts slow, market will hit the price 2.0, around min `18 mark.. If you suspect a goal from one of the two attacking teams, which already confirms with the stats that they have a tradition of scoring in the first half, and during the gameplay where their defensive lines are quite close to the midfield, this is a definite lay where you can watch the remaining 28-30 minutes for getting your lay stake back.
In the second half, next under or CS markets are hitting odds 2.0 around `73 minute mark, which gives you only 18-20 minutes for the goal, you can see that laying the half time 0-0 is a relatively better strategy if its run efficiently.
Remember, this is an advantageous move only if you are correctly reading the game play in the long run. One of my trading partners can spot the goal coming very well, after he says I see a goal, usually the goal comes in the following 5-10 minutes, and he successfully profits from this by laying the under odds in slowest moving markets.
Take HT 0-0 market for instance, most of the times when a game starts slow, market will hit the price 2.0, around min `18 mark.. If you suspect a goal from one of the two attacking teams, which already confirms with the stats that they have a tradition of scoring in the first half, and during the gameplay where their defensive lines are quite close to the midfield, this is a definite lay where you can watch the remaining 28-30 minutes for getting your lay stake back.
In the second half, next under or CS markets are hitting odds 2.0 around `73 minute mark, which gives you only 18-20 minutes for the goal, you can see that laying the half time 0-0 is a relatively better strategy if its run efficiently.
Remember, this is an advantageous move only if you are correctly reading the game play in the long run. One of my trading partners can spot the goal coming very well, after he says I see a goal, usually the goal comes in the following 5-10 minutes, and he successfully profits from this by laying the under odds in slowest moving markets.
Consty1 wrote:But I'm right in thinking the markets appear efficient in Soccer Mystic?mugsgame wrote:
The market IS NOT always efficient.
Soccer Mystic will give you an idea of where the markets should be. The trick is to spot where the market is NOT where it shouldn't be and take advantage of that. The market will eventually realign itself. Example:
under 2.5 goals - the odds should be 1.98 the actual odds are 2.2. Why? There is a direct free kick 20 yds out. What happens once the free kick is taken? Work on lines like these.
Consty1 wrote:But I'm right in thinking the markets appear efficient in Soccer Mystic?mugsgame wrote:
The market IS NOT always efficient.
Soccer Mystic will give you an idea of where the markets should be. The trick is to spot where the market is NOT where it shouldn't be and take advantage of that. The market will eventually realign itself. Example:
under 2.5 goals - the odds should be 1.98 the actual odds are 2.2. Why? There is a direct free kick 20 yds out. What happens once the free kick is taken? Work on lines like these.
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evertonian
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:34 am
http://technical-analysis-addins.com/de ... thesis.php
That is a defintion of an efficient market. As you see there are many differing opinions on what an efficient market actually means. If you take the quote " an efficient market that adjusts rapidly to new information ", then this happens in a lot of football games.
Many games that have starting prices of odds under 2.0 on Under 2.5 goals go Over 2.5 goals. If you have a price on a Under 2.5 goals game of 1.8, this implies that it has a 56 chance of it going Under 2.5 goals. Therefore there's a 44% chance of it going Over 2.5 goals. Over 10,000 games, 5600 will go Unders, 4400 will go Overs. Long term if you look through the markets this happens, making the market efficient ( especially with the introduction of Betfair )This is why long term if you just bet these games at random you will eventually lose due to Betfair charging comission.
However, there are points during games in football where the price differs to Soccer Mystic, but the markets are still efficient in that it is still "reflecting" the information that is available to people. Many games have quick starts where a team is getting lots of shots on target and they don't score. Look how the market reacts to this. Is there a point where you can trade in a short amount of time to make a decent profit ?
Different games will always have different things happening in play. Some 0 0 games will have loads of shots on target, others will have few shots on target and will end up with a couple of goals. Where you will make your money is where you can assess what's happening while you're watching the game and taking account of what's happening in front of you. There is no magic answer to making money in play on football.
It's how you look at and process the information - has the market over reacted to a goal ? Is the other team sitting back after scoring ? Is the team that has scored pushing for another goal ? There are many different variables during a game of football that statistics alone can't answer.
That is a defintion of an efficient market. As you see there are many differing opinions on what an efficient market actually means. If you take the quote " an efficient market that adjusts rapidly to new information ", then this happens in a lot of football games.
Many games that have starting prices of odds under 2.0 on Under 2.5 goals go Over 2.5 goals. If you have a price on a Under 2.5 goals game of 1.8, this implies that it has a 56 chance of it going Under 2.5 goals. Therefore there's a 44% chance of it going Over 2.5 goals. Over 10,000 games, 5600 will go Unders, 4400 will go Overs. Long term if you look through the markets this happens, making the market efficient ( especially with the introduction of Betfair )This is why long term if you just bet these games at random you will eventually lose due to Betfair charging comission.
However, there are points during games in football where the price differs to Soccer Mystic, but the markets are still efficient in that it is still "reflecting" the information that is available to people. Many games have quick starts where a team is getting lots of shots on target and they don't score. Look how the market reacts to this. Is there a point where you can trade in a short amount of time to make a decent profit ?
Different games will always have different things happening in play. Some 0 0 games will have loads of shots on target, others will have few shots on target and will end up with a couple of goals. Where you will make your money is where you can assess what's happening while you're watching the game and taking account of what's happening in front of you. There is no magic answer to making money in play on football.
It's how you look at and process the information - has the market over reacted to a goal ? Is the other team sitting back after scoring ? Is the team that has scored pushing for another goal ? There are many different variables during a game of football that statistics alone can't answer.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
+1mugsgame wrote:There are so many stats junkies trading football there are few mistakes if you are doing the same thing. Think outside the box, that's my advice.
this guy must be a genius!3virgul14 wrote:One of my trading partners can spot the goal coming very well, after he says I see a goal, usually the goal comes in the following 5-10 minutes, and he successfully profits from this by laying the under odds in slowest moving markets.
i'm looking at trading football in the new season.
question... after a market is suspended after a goal and comes back in in-play how come people can get their money in the market so quickly (seemingly beating the delay)?
same thing happens in racing when the market re-opens to trade a photo finish.
Cheers for the responses again fellas. Still struggling to pick up a lot of concepts but the underlying opinion seems to be having a good grasp of game flow etc which I feel I have so I'll keep working on reading price movement and see where it gets me.