Could i ask for your views on which is better to trade for a new trader ?
My experiences / knowledge from a general betting background are :-
1. On the face of it , handicaps SHOULD be more volatile , however it appears there is often a steamer in , for example maiden races . EG fav around 6/4 , 2nd fav 3/1 and the 3rd fav steamS in from nowhere from 8/1 to 4/1? Or perhaps there is a massive fav / 2nd fav drifter. Often non handicaps are priced with just 3 or 4 horses as having a realistic chance of winning.
2. On the other hand , if the everyday punters have decided they don`t like a particular horse in a handicap or a commentator says it`s badly handicapped for example , this can cause a big drift too.
3. Does it really matter anyway and we should just trade what you see regardless of race conditions ?
4. In other words , are there particular races and their ` set ups ` which are better than others ?
5. Are small fields better than large for example.
Thanks in advance , J.
HANDICAPS VERSUS NON HANDICAPS
Any trader will tell you mate , you'll get a better understanding of which markets to trade after youve watched them over and over for ages , they put in a lot of hours and wont give this info up for free. They,ll give you advice on how to dig, but they wont show you where the treasure is my friend, but one things for sure you spot a horse steaming in from 8/1 to 4/1 ... jump on and fill your boots 
There are differences between markets for many handicaps and non handicaps, but more depends on the quality of the race and the horses running in it. A group one race for instance is not likely to produce a volatile market, because pretty much everything is known about the ability of all the horses running in it. Some of the most volatile markets occur in Bumpers (National Hunt Flat races) because the horses are very inexperienced generally and any whispers can bring about huge surges. Lower your stakes and look for sudden swings.
Hi and thanks for advice so far.
I`m more than aware that no ` secrets ` will be revealed , however that is not what i`m asking !
I`m simply enquiring what people think generally and perhaps be given some direction along the way - it is the newbie section after all.
I`ve a big shovel and am prepared to work , having been on the forum for 2 years and still trying to crack it.
Thanks Fuzzer - that makes a lot of sense re top quality racing and i`ve read that before , but with the bread and butter stuff i` trying to ask on my and others` behalf - should we for example ONLY concentrate on handicaps ( or whatever ) to begin with ?.
Cheers
I`m more than aware that no ` secrets ` will be revealed , however that is not what i`m asking !
I`m simply enquiring what people think generally and perhaps be given some direction along the way - it is the newbie section after all.
I`ve a big shovel and am prepared to work , having been on the forum for 2 years and still trying to crack it.
Thanks Fuzzer - that makes a lot of sense re top quality racing and i`ve read that before , but with the bread and butter stuff i` trying to ask on my and others` behalf - should we for example ONLY concentrate on handicaps ( or whatever ) to begin with ?.
Cheers
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
This is a subject that seems to crop up in posts and conversations so here goes.
Basically there are three types of horse. There are more but in order to keep things simple I'll stick with three.
We have mediocre horses who will never amount to much. They will be seen running at low grade tracks and low grade races. They will mainly run in selling races and claimers or very low grade handicaps (Grade 5 for example)
We then have medium grade horses who will run in semi-decent handicaps, Grade 3 and the odd Grade 2. They will never be top class but the odd one does improve and made the step up. You occasionally see these dropped into lower grade races in an attempt to win with them or to perhaps sell them off. You will often see a comment "dropping in class" when this occurs.
You then have the top grade horses who will compete in the top races where horses generally carry level weights. On the flat the very best will contest Group 1 races and the odd Group 2 if the prize money is there. Over the jumps it will be the Gold Cup at Cheltenham and the Champion Hurdle to name but two. You will have some which just fall short of top class but are too good for medium class. They tend to run in Pattern or Listed races on the flat or the top races like the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. They cannot quite compete with the elite but they're not far off.
For a serious punter to bet there must be something on which a judgement can be made. The top punters will base this on form. Yes, I know many people will claim it is more based on "inside information" but trust me that is very rare.
It has already been mentioned that the top grades will always be the most stable. Why? Well they attract the most money and that ensures more stability. So if you look at the types of horses I mentioned above it then helps you to make an assessment of how the market is likely to behave.
1. Low grade - form is unreliable as are the horses. You could run the same 8 horse race 8 times and potentially have 8 different winners! This means serious punters will stay away and volatility will be high.
2. Medium Grade - some decent form to go on and serious punters can risk more capital. This means you will get some movement but it shouldn't be so volatile you will get caught by a massive move. Yes it happens but you should break even over time.
3. High Grade - plenty of decent form on offer and horses generally run close to their mark. This means serious punters can wager larger stakes. The markets become very stable and movement is compressed.
Just to finish. Form is important so in races like Maidens on the flat or Novice events over jumps there will be very little to go on. A lot of punters will back horses from powerful yards or with a top jockey booked. On the flat, horses bred in the purple will attract support. However, serious punters will not be going mad so you can and will get volatility in these markets as another rumour hits the media. "My mates's brother's boyfriend delivers parcels to the stable and he told me the stable lad said this is a flying machine!" You know what I mean and it is this rubbish that can cause crazy moves only for the horse to finish last!
I hope that helps.
JG
Basically there are three types of horse. There are more but in order to keep things simple I'll stick with three.
We have mediocre horses who will never amount to much. They will be seen running at low grade tracks and low grade races. They will mainly run in selling races and claimers or very low grade handicaps (Grade 5 for example)
We then have medium grade horses who will run in semi-decent handicaps, Grade 3 and the odd Grade 2. They will never be top class but the odd one does improve and made the step up. You occasionally see these dropped into lower grade races in an attempt to win with them or to perhaps sell them off. You will often see a comment "dropping in class" when this occurs.
You then have the top grade horses who will compete in the top races where horses generally carry level weights. On the flat the very best will contest Group 1 races and the odd Group 2 if the prize money is there. Over the jumps it will be the Gold Cup at Cheltenham and the Champion Hurdle to name but two. You will have some which just fall short of top class but are too good for medium class. They tend to run in Pattern or Listed races on the flat or the top races like the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. They cannot quite compete with the elite but they're not far off.
For a serious punter to bet there must be something on which a judgement can be made. The top punters will base this on form. Yes, I know many people will claim it is more based on "inside information" but trust me that is very rare.
It has already been mentioned that the top grades will always be the most stable. Why? Well they attract the most money and that ensures more stability. So if you look at the types of horses I mentioned above it then helps you to make an assessment of how the market is likely to behave.
1. Low grade - form is unreliable as are the horses. You could run the same 8 horse race 8 times and potentially have 8 different winners! This means serious punters will stay away and volatility will be high.
2. Medium Grade - some decent form to go on and serious punters can risk more capital. This means you will get some movement but it shouldn't be so volatile you will get caught by a massive move. Yes it happens but you should break even over time.
3. High Grade - plenty of decent form on offer and horses generally run close to their mark. This means serious punters can wager larger stakes. The markets become very stable and movement is compressed.
Just to finish. Form is important so in races like Maidens on the flat or Novice events over jumps there will be very little to go on. A lot of punters will back horses from powerful yards or with a top jockey booked. On the flat, horses bred in the purple will attract support. However, serious punters will not be going mad so you can and will get volatility in these markets as another rumour hits the media. "My mates's brother's boyfriend delivers parcels to the stable and he told me the stable lad said this is a flying machine!" You know what I mean and it is this rubbish that can cause crazy moves only for the horse to finish last!
I hope that helps.
JG
Thanks JG , you are one of the most helpful on this site and i appreciate it. An excellent , in depth piece.
This is the point i was trying to make , a little direction / guidance is all most people want and this level of suggestion is just right - no secrets asked for /none given . No one needs spoon feeding but a few crumbs are nice !
It always amazes me that everyone and his dog will tell you what they fancy and why , give tips for free etc etc , but as for trading advice ......
I only hope one day i`m in a position to give advice back to others ( you can always hope ).
Thanks once again.
This is the point i was trying to make , a little direction / guidance is all most people want and this level of suggestion is just right - no secrets asked for /none given . No one needs spoon feeding but a few crumbs are nice !
It always amazes me that everyone and his dog will tell you what they fancy and why , give tips for free etc etc , but as for trading advice ......
I only hope one day i`m in a position to give advice back to others ( you can always hope ).
Thanks once again.
Hi , could i resurrect this one again based on the blog entry on Betangel today ?
As well as looking at if the meeting is top class like Goodwood this week or lower class like Catterick for example , it now seems even the the poorer tracks ` like Bangor and Thirsk ` can be sub catagorised as good or bad trading tracks.This can`t be right.
It`s accepted higher grade tracks offer stability whereas lower grade tracks are more volatile.
Surely this is not a million miles away from a tongue in cheek comment today about wearing lucky green underpants on certain days of the week or if favs have a better chance on Thursdays or Saturdays.
Bangor is good ..... Exeter is bad....i can`t buy that one unless there is a clear explanation.
Every race is different, handicap , non handicap , containing different horses , on different ground etc etc .
You can only trade what is in front of you we are consistently told by those who know....
Bangor or Thirsk cannot possibly be worse (or better) than say Carlisle or Taunton.
If they are ..... i`d love to know why.
Cheers.
As well as looking at if the meeting is top class like Goodwood this week or lower class like Catterick for example , it now seems even the the poorer tracks ` like Bangor and Thirsk ` can be sub catagorised as good or bad trading tracks.This can`t be right.
It`s accepted higher grade tracks offer stability whereas lower grade tracks are more volatile.
Surely this is not a million miles away from a tongue in cheek comment today about wearing lucky green underpants on certain days of the week or if favs have a better chance on Thursdays or Saturdays.
Bangor is good ..... Exeter is bad....i can`t buy that one unless there is a clear explanation.
Every race is different, handicap , non handicap , containing different horses , on different ground etc etc .
You can only trade what is in front of you we are consistently told by those who know....
Bangor or Thirsk cannot possibly be worse (or better) than say Carlisle or Taunton.
If they are ..... i`d love to know why.
Cheers.
