Hi , Your opinions please.
Let`s say the markets have been stable for a minute or so.
This question, i hope , will not get the usual response of " it depends and you`ll have to watch the markets yourself " - i don`t think i`m asking for any trading secrets here !
In general.....
1.Do prices move because one price has come in first ie a horse has been backed either on course or on Betfair , therefore forcing other prices to move out , or :-
2.Do prices on one or two horses have to drift first , forcing one of the other prices in to balance the book.
As a novice ( read - unsuccessful ) trader i believe number 1 option to be true but then again , what do i know ?
Advice always gratefully accepted ,
Thanks
In / Out / In / Out...... what`s it all about ?
The market (Betfair) is very efficient. i.e. if you convert all the odds to percentages you will get very close to 100 ( an efficient book) the closer to 100% the more efficient. Bookies work to 115-130% with everything over 100 being their profit if they have a balanced book. To convert from odds to percentage the calc is 1/(odds) x100 = %
How does this effect prices?
The book (LAY PRICES) will never usually exceed 100% (you can see the % at the top of the columns on several of the BA tabs) the Betfair cross matching bot keeps this in check.
So to keep the book efficient the whole market is like a set of balancing scales. In a 2 runner market if 1 goes up then 1 must come down. The more runners the more complex. However, the shorter the price the more influence the runner has on the market. A runner moving from 2.0 to 1.8 increases it's market share by 5.6% to put this into context an outsider would have to move from around 200 into 18 to have the same influence or 5 into 3.9 OR any combination of multiple runners moving small amounts.
The market is very complex and their is no "one size fits all" explanation. I posted somewhere in a thread called scalping for beginners that explains this in more detail. To get a better understanding of how markets behave (Racing in particular) look for a race with 2 strong runners and the rest over 30 (price) you can pretty much discount them.
Hope this helps.
How does this effect prices?
The book (LAY PRICES) will never usually exceed 100% (you can see the % at the top of the columns on several of the BA tabs) the Betfair cross matching bot keeps this in check.
So to keep the book efficient the whole market is like a set of balancing scales. In a 2 runner market if 1 goes up then 1 must come down. The more runners the more complex. However, the shorter the price the more influence the runner has on the market. A runner moving from 2.0 to 1.8 increases it's market share by 5.6% to put this into context an outsider would have to move from around 200 into 18 to have the same influence or 5 into 3.9 OR any combination of multiple runners moving small amounts.
The market is very complex and their is no "one size fits all" explanation. I posted somewhere in a thread called scalping for beginners that explains this in more detail. To get a better understanding of how markets behave (Racing in particular) look for a race with 2 strong runners and the rest over 30 (price) you can pretty much discount them.
Hope this helps.
Hi , thanks for that. If i am interpreting this correctly , this , i think , partly explains why i seem to get out with a smaller profit than i could. Say this fav comes from 2.00 into 1.80 i may to get out on the second fav which may be 3.00 for example with a couple of ticks profit as it drifts but i should be staying in the market a little longer as it should go out further to balance the books?.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The balance of the book happens almost instantly. So if you notice 1 or more horses still drifting it is likely the fav will come in more (if not a combination of other runners)JOIZZY wrote:Hi , thanks for that. If i am interpreting this correctly , this , i think , partly explains why i seem to get out with a smaller profit than i could. Say this fav comes from 2.00 into 1.80 i may to get out on the second fav which may be 3.00 for example with a couple of ticks profit as it drifts but i should be staying in the market a little longer as it should go out further to balance the books?.
Thank you.
What has constantly baffled me is this:- At the race track - mid week small meeting - let`s say all the bookies are showing 3.00 ( 2/1 ) for the fav . A punter goes in with a big bet,
( £10,000 ? )an individual bookie on course might accept the bet ... but he can`t then offer say 6/4 just to round his own book.... he will keep offering the 2/1 like his competitors.His personal book is a massive loser at that point if the horse wins.The same thing doesnot happen on Betfair - a massive bet shows at £50,000 ( eg the bomber ) and the book still shows say 101% - how or why can this happen. Therefore a i correct is saying the book overround cannot be a arket indicator?
Cheers.
( £10,000 ? )an individual bookie on course might accept the bet ... but he can`t then offer say 6/4 just to round his own book.... he will keep offering the 2/1 like his competitors.His personal book is a massive loser at that point if the horse wins.The same thing doesnot happen on Betfair - a massive bet shows at £50,000 ( eg the bomber ) and the book still shows say 101% - how or why can this happen. Therefore a i correct is saying the book overround cannot be a arket indicator?
Cheers.