Manipulation - Self Matching - What do you see?
due to x matching I thing bf changed the way money are matched and displayed as matched. If your back bet appears somewhere as a lay and is taken there it might be displayed on both runners as matched. Then they upgraded their site, and now are processing more bets per/second, more clicks etc. and markets look more lively, aggressive at times. Also in my opinion the number of traders in the market increased and the number of "real money providers decreased" so it's more like traders vs traders game. You can see more panic, more aggressive moves and more unusual behaviour. The liquidity is drying out although bf reports doesn't look like that. It is concentrated more on bigger events leaving out small races where sometimes by the way I feel there are no bots involved. Especially if there are two races at the same time. Lots of bots inplay and lots of traders. They are super acting hence we have lay 1.01 profitable strategies. Manipulation yes lots of. If the market is flat and big orders are coming in I think manipulators have same problems as all traders. I can't say anything about 25min out. As the less money are in the market the more closer to the start I will get involved. If you remember what races were strange you can buy live data from fracsoft for pennies and study them. One Sunday there were a lot o strange activity on some Irish markets and guess what? I could not find them on fracsoft. They were unavailable.
I am not sure I understand the sentiment behind this thread.
"Manipulation" of the markets has been there since day 1. By using such a word you are attaching a negative to a type of activity just because it makes it harder for you to trade.
You must stop seeing activity in the markets as right or wrong.
A strategy that used to work may not work any longer as new participants enter the market. These markets are contantly evolving.
As traders we must not be emotionally attached to the market (easy for me to say!!) and adapt to the changes to become successful.
We all play the markets - some react to activity, others create the activity, (some do both). Neither is "wrong". There are successful traders on both sides of this coin.
"Manipulation" of the markets has been there since day 1. By using such a word you are attaching a negative to a type of activity just because it makes it harder for you to trade.
You must stop seeing activity in the markets as right or wrong.
A strategy that used to work may not work any longer as new participants enter the market. These markets are contantly evolving.
As traders we must not be emotionally attached to the market (easy for me to say!!) and adapt to the changes to become successful.
We all play the markets - some react to activity, others create the activity, (some do both). Neither is "wrong". There are successful traders on both sides of this coin.
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steven1976
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Spreadbetting - "I think you'll find the majority of people with a strong view of how the markets are being 'steered' will have the same view".
Possibly but who knows until they post.
Chuck - You didnt seem off in your first post. Yes, I agree, edges can be had from them for swing trades. Very short term you can also play against it with small amounts. I think self matching benefits very short term gains with the possibility of creating swing trades as long as you have enough funds to do it.
Guatamai - "real money providers decreased" . This along with PC i believe is one of the main reasons manipulation is also increasing. If you still want to earn the big dollars per race you need to be more aggressive than say 2 years ago. Its clear betfair are not attracting new customers and at the moment its levelled off or dropping. They really need to think about how to expand it and somehow get to Beijing and talk the government over there into allowing gambling through betfair!
Bots - My personal feeling is that bots will soon get found out/spotted by people who collect data say from fracsoft. The bot that repeats an action could easily put a bot in a loosing positions if you could identify it doing the same thing over and over again. Even if it is only putting it in a loosing position short term (20-30 sec to move the price to a level and sell out). Some of the guys like Peter Le who does a lot with bots could probably answer better if he thinks bots can be consistantly efficient in pre-race markets.
Yantraman - "I am not sure I understand the sentiment behind this thread."
"Manipulation" of the markets has been there since day 1. By using such a word you are attaching a negative to a type of activity just because it makes it harder for you to trade"
I was asked to put up my understandings of manipulation a few months back when Euler said he would examine data and look into it. I never got round to posting it at that time and then recently I was asked again to post up when i commented in a thread where some 60% PC posters were frustrated about selfmatching. Therefore I hope this explains the sentiment of the thread.
Looking at the number of views this thread has had in the past couple of days it is one of the most viewed topics in the past 5 weeks in horse racing so whilst for some it means nothing, others must be taking something from it. Although you personally know that manipulation has been around from day 1 in one form or another it doesnt mean everyone else will know.
If possible, is there any chance of expanding on the type of manipulation you see and how it works which is also a big part of what the thread is about? If its an edge you use, i understand you wont share it but if its something you see then it could be worth sharing.
If i missed anyones reply sorry.
Possibly but who knows until they post.
Chuck - You didnt seem off in your first post. Yes, I agree, edges can be had from them for swing trades. Very short term you can also play against it with small amounts. I think self matching benefits very short term gains with the possibility of creating swing trades as long as you have enough funds to do it.
Guatamai - "real money providers decreased" . This along with PC i believe is one of the main reasons manipulation is also increasing. If you still want to earn the big dollars per race you need to be more aggressive than say 2 years ago. Its clear betfair are not attracting new customers and at the moment its levelled off or dropping. They really need to think about how to expand it and somehow get to Beijing and talk the government over there into allowing gambling through betfair!
Bots - My personal feeling is that bots will soon get found out/spotted by people who collect data say from fracsoft. The bot that repeats an action could easily put a bot in a loosing positions if you could identify it doing the same thing over and over again. Even if it is only putting it in a loosing position short term (20-30 sec to move the price to a level and sell out). Some of the guys like Peter Le who does a lot with bots could probably answer better if he thinks bots can be consistantly efficient in pre-race markets.
Yantraman - "I am not sure I understand the sentiment behind this thread."
"Manipulation" of the markets has been there since day 1. By using such a word you are attaching a negative to a type of activity just because it makes it harder for you to trade"
I was asked to put up my understandings of manipulation a few months back when Euler said he would examine data and look into it. I never got round to posting it at that time and then recently I was asked again to post up when i commented in a thread where some 60% PC posters were frustrated about selfmatching. Therefore I hope this explains the sentiment of the thread.
Looking at the number of views this thread has had in the past couple of days it is one of the most viewed topics in the past 5 weeks in horse racing so whilst for some it means nothing, others must be taking something from it. Although you personally know that manipulation has been around from day 1 in one form or another it doesnt mean everyone else will know.
If possible, is there any chance of expanding on the type of manipulation you see and how it works which is also a big part of what the thread is about? If its an edge you use, i understand you wont share it but if its something you see then it could be worth sharing.
If i missed anyones reply sorry.
I just don't understand why anyone would be surprised by the existence of the types of activity you write about in what is an open market.
For a long as betfair users can fund their accounts with limitless amounts of cash, a limitless number of differing types of activity/strategies will be played out.
Its just that some are more obvious that others.
For a long as betfair users can fund their accounts with limitless amounts of cash, a limitless number of differing types of activity/strategies will be played out.
Its just that some are more obvious that others.
I think the problem with observations about the market is that's easy to over-interpret, a la the blind men feeling the elephant: http://www.noogenesis.com/pineapple/bli ... phant.html
Jeff
Jeff
gutuami wrote:there's no sentiment for me for this tread. The topic is ... what do you see? So everybody put in his views and opinions.
i totally agree with the post
most of my losses have come about because i kept walking into scams and traps set by the smart guys
i believe that the majority of the learning proccess involves dodging scams
the trading is a zero sum game and i always found the idea that traders are providing useful service ridicious
betfair trading is a sporting contest someone wins means others have to lose
most of my losses have come about because i kept walking into scams and traps set by the smart guys
i believe that the majority of the learning proccess involves dodging scams
the trading is a zero sum game and i always found the idea that traders are providing useful service ridicious
betfair trading is a sporting contest someone wins means others have to lose
WoM has long ceased to be a reliable market indicator, at least for much of the time. If the volume of money matched is now to be taken with an equally large bucket of salt, we're not left with much to go by.
What's far worse, if the OP is correct, is that this manipulation technique is not available to all. I may not want to join the ranks of manipulating B'stards, but I certainly want those who do to be able to beat the worst of them at their own game.
It seems that as time goes by, Betfair bears less and less of a passing resemblance to an exchange.
What's far worse, if the OP is correct, is that this manipulation technique is not available to all. I may not want to join the ranks of manipulating B'stards, but I certainly want those who do to be able to beat the worst of them at their own game.
It seems that as time goes by, Betfair bears less and less of a passing resemblance to an exchange.
I disagree. They provide liquidity for bookies and punters, as well as for each other.
Whilst I've no doubt that some traders manipulate the market (or try to!), I suspect that most don't have large enough accounts (or balls!
) to be able to do so effectively.
Also, whilst someone might be able to manipulate the market for a moment, I imagine there aren't many people can continually boss the market about. So if you set your exit strategy so that you don't exit due to a slight bit of market 'noise', it might not matter if there are manipulators about...
Jeff
Whilst I've no doubt that some traders manipulate the market (or try to!), I suspect that most don't have large enough accounts (or balls!
) to be able to do so effectively. Also, whilst someone might be able to manipulate the market for a moment, I imagine there aren't many people can continually boss the market about. So if you set your exit strategy so that you don't exit due to a slight bit of market 'noise', it might not matter if there are manipulators about...
Jeff
Zenyatta wrote:i always found the idea that traders are providing useful service ridicious
Thats just traders trying to rationalize their own bad behaviour.I disagree. They provide liquidity for bookies and punters, as well as for each other.
In fact, for all but the big feature races manipulation is rampant right up until the final couple of minutes before the off. To quote another poster "Something fishy is going on on almost every runner"Whilst I've no doubt that some traders manipulate the market (or try to!), I suspect that most don't have large enough accounts (or balls!
You've been conned my friend. In fact, many features of the Betangel software are targetted and exploited by scammers. For example, its very clear that prices are being deliberately pushed in and out to try to trigger stop-losses and trick bots into firing. The scams in operation are many and various and all-pervasive.Also, whilst someone might be able to manipulate the market for a moment, I imagine there aren't many people can continually boss the market about. So if you set your exit strategy so that you don't exit due to a slight bit of market 'noise', it might not matter if there are manipulators about...
Jeff
Last edited by Zenyatta on Fri Aug 10, 2012 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Zenyatta -
I've no doubt manipulation happens. But I don't accept image of the puppetmaster being portrayed - one ring to rule them all, one ring to find them, and in the darkness bind them, etc.
Call me naive, but I don't really buy into conspiracy theories like that.
Scammer A might want to push the market one direction. But what if Scammer B wants to push it the other direction? Or what if Scammer B thinks 'I can have a bit of fun with Scammer A and relieve him of some of the contents of his wallet'?
I really think you are oversimplifying things...
Jeff
I've no doubt manipulation happens. But I don't accept image of the puppetmaster being portrayed - one ring to rule them all, one ring to find them, and in the darkness bind them, etc.
Call me naive, but I don't really buy into conspiracy theories like that.Scammer A might want to push the market one direction. But what if Scammer B wants to push it the other direction? Or what if Scammer B thinks 'I can have a bit of fun with Scammer A and relieve him of some of the contents of his wallet'?
I really think you are oversimplifying things...
Jeff
And yes, I dont doubt that there is an arms race between manipulators who end up cannibalizing each other.But Zenyatta, what evidence do you have for your theories?
I was down on the beach earlier, and observed the movement of a kite. One moment it went slightly to the right. The next it took a sharp turn to the left. Its next move was utterly unpredictable, and it struck me that it was like the market in that respect.
People come up with all sorts of theories about what the market is and how it operates. However, the fact is that the market often defies our theories, and it's easier to blame a malevolent force than to consider that, in arriving at said theories, we may have been fooled by randomness.
Jeff
I was down on the beach earlier, and observed the movement of a kite. One moment it went slightly to the right. The next it took a sharp turn to the left. Its next move was utterly unpredictable, and it struck me that it was like the market in that respect.
People come up with all sorts of theories about what the market is and how it operates. However, the fact is that the market often defies our theories, and it's easier to blame a malevolent force than to consider that, in arriving at said theories, we may have been fooled by randomness.
Jeff
Zenyatta wrote:Jeff,
I in turn think you being naive...its not paranoia when they really are out to get you
Am totally with Jeff on this one. I have been trading the Betfair markets for more than ten years, and yes there are big players who influence the market at times - just as the big power houses in the international financial markets do when they move into a market. But overall it is a market pure and simple and a remarkably efficient one at that.
Anyone who watches these markets day in day out knows that manipulation does take place, but it's only a small part of the picture.
It's too easy to blame the market for losses. Anyone who does that will always be a loser. The market is what it is, and it's up to the trader to find a way of profiting from the obvious manipulation or keeping clear of any market which he or she believes is being artificially influenced.
And there are plenty of markets which simply cannot be manipulated at all for any length of time. I trade a lot on tennis and cricket in running, and for the vast majority of the time the only thing that influences those markets is what happens on the field.
Look for over reactions in those markets and there are rich pickings available, and no one can manipulate those markets for more than a few seconds at a time or they would lose their stakes very quickly.
So, in short, stop blaming the market or outside influences for your losses; they are your responsibility and no one but no one ever forces you to enter a trade. If you never learn to accept your losses you will never learn to be a winner.
Anyone who watches these markets day in day out knows that manipulation does take place, but it's only a small part of the picture.
It's too easy to blame the market for losses. Anyone who does that will always be a loser. The market is what it is, and it's up to the trader to find a way of profiting from the obvious manipulation or keeping clear of any market which he or she believes is being artificially influenced.
And there are plenty of markets which simply cannot be manipulated at all for any length of time. I trade a lot on tennis and cricket in running, and for the vast majority of the time the only thing that influences those markets is what happens on the field.
Look for over reactions in those markets and there are rich pickings available, and no one can manipulate those markets for more than a few seconds at a time or they would lose their stakes very quickly.
So, in short, stop blaming the market or outside influences for your losses; they are your responsibility and no one but no one ever forces you to enter a trade. If you never learn to accept your losses you will never learn to be a winner.
Fooking hell Jeff you have cracked it!!!!!!!Ferru123 wrote:But Zenyatta, what evidence do you have for your theories?
I was down on the beach earlier, and observed the movement of a kite. One moment it went slightly to the right. The next it took a sharp turn to the left. Its next move was utterly unpredictable, and it struck me that it was like the market in that respect.
