Change in behaviour

[Melsey]

The pre-race markets in horse racing this month feel not so much 'manipulated' as talked about here on a number of threads but at times completely controlled.

As more of a swing trader I have noticed that often what starts off as a potential longer term trend starts going and then gets brought to a sudden stop with someone throwing money on both sides of the book almost like ping-pong, making me more reluctant to commit larger stakes.

Interestingly enough there is the 'odd' race that gets left alone and often the evening races are producing far more swing opportunities... perhaps they are off having their supper....?

[macin]

I've had a curious afternoon today. Flying along till 4pm then it's like a switch was flicked and the market changed within a couple of races.

I've been experiencing this for some time too... Often it seems as the markets are brilliant from the first race and suddenly, "as if someone pressed a button" they become completely untradable with the stakes and strategies used up until the moment. I don't want to go as far as saying bf or some other entity does it but it's like someone letting us make some little money, get used to the ease of making it and then bang, take it back and from those who don't notice the change, even much more than they made to the point. Maybe it's just my head but it started happening this year, in Feb, April, May just for few days but July and August almost every day I traded... I blamed it to the weather, later euro 2012 and finally Olympics, ie maybe many traders moved to some other markets, but now those finished, weather seems to be ok but markets did not get back to where they were... Maybe many traders gave up bf trading full time, got back to work so they are trading from 5 or 6 pm now? So many possible causes
Also what I noticed is that some poor races may look like grade 1 (in terms of displayed volume) but as soon as I try to match my bets at limit prices, matched volume completely disappear, especially if I get on the wrong side of the move and there is nothing to close my position on apart from paying up by many ticks... This could be extremely visible in IP when many times even 20 quid stake at 1.6 cannot be matched, even though it looks like as if hundreds are being matched few tick above...
As I said, maybe those things are in my head but saw few comments confirming my observations so decided to post them here

[andyfuller]

I am intrigued to hear what Peter has noticed as of July 1st.....

We have written an app to test the market in great depth. When we can see the results of that we will know. Till then it's just conjecture about what has changed.

At the moment it's curious that some stuff seems relatively unaffected, as are volumes; so that's confusing.

After a week of testing has the app found anything yet Peter? Or is a week too short a time scale? If it is how long do you envisage it needing?

[Euler]

Nothing firm, need about a month of data TBH. Some of my thoughts resonate with what has been on the thread but when we look we can't see anything particular. We only see the effect it is having rather than the actual thing that is causing it. A bit like dark matter!

[hgodden]

That which I think you were talking about 'appeared' to happen to me then in the 15.40 at York when I had a decent amount in the market. Can't be sure of course and dont want to bang on about it but worth noting.

[andyfuller]

Nothing firm, need about a month of data TBH. Some of my thoughts resonate with what has been on the thread but when we look we can't see anything particular. We only see the effect it is having rather than the actual thing that is causing it. A bit like dark matter!

Cheers for that Peter, now that people have put forward what they have thought it is can you say what you think it is as I would have thought anyone who was going to contribute to the thread as to what they are seeing would have done so I don't think you would be influencing what anyone says now.

[mcfc1981]

i still see it as 1 person/group using different strategies, current fav being huge lay drive price up huge back drive price down

[Euler]

Andy, basically a change in fill rate. Wasn't there in June & up to the 30th, appeared from 1st July onwards. Everybody is used to the way the market changes overtime, but it usually doesn't do that overnight!

[mcfc1981]

the fill rate seems to be slow slow then bang bang bang then back to slow

[andyfuller]

Thanks for that Peter, I agree with mcfc1981 about how he describes fill rate but as i dont keep data or notes i can't say I noticed an overnight change in fill rate as you have detected peter so it will be interesting to see what you find after a few more weeks. I in recent times have relied upon just my memory and we all know how you can convince yourself xy and z has happened when in fact abc has happened.

Shows the importance of keeping detailed records if nothing else.

[James1st]

There are certainly differences when trading 2pm-4/5pm and the later (evening) races but one thing is for sure

ʎɐqǝ uo pɹɐoqʎǝʞ ɐ ʎnq ı ǝɯıʇ ʇsɐן ǝɥʇ sı sıɥʇ

[gampas]

I have to say the comment that recently it feels like "someone was always able to beat us to the click"
certainly strikes a chord with me.
Something seems to be happening, I would second or in this case third that statement.
Something has changed, it appears to be behind the scenes, "like someones got the jump on you" of that I am sure, what it is exactly and how its working I really dont know, yet.

I was told by an ex-Betfair employee recently that Betfair now trades in its own markets and he believed that their bots did not have the five-second delay. I have been told by reputable people including former directors of Betfair that they have traded in their own markets for a couple of years. I have no evidence that their bots do not have the delay, only hearsay, I should stress. But it accords with my experience of always being beaten to the click. And I have a fast lease line, and the pro API with dedicated fast software.

I stopped betting large amounts with Betfair a while ago, with the premium charge being the last straw. An average person on 3%, making 5k profit in a year in say 6 markets a week, winning 12.5k and losing 7.5k, could end up paying £375 in commission, and an additional £625 in PC, effectively meaning he is paying 7% commission. This is assuming he has used up his free £1000 and is not on the killing larger rate!

The recent advertising campaign by Betfair is misleading. It looks at the last Premiership season in England and claims that Betfair was better than Bet 365 on 178 of 250 winning outcomes better than Ladbrokes on 173 of the 250 winning outcomes and better than William Hill on 187 of the 250 winning outcomes. The false impression given is that Betfair is generally better than the high-street bookmaker. Nothing could be further than the truth.

I downloaded all the data from http://www.football-data.co.uk (a highly recommended site by the way). The average overround of the best prices of the leading bookmakers that it uses for the Premiership last year was 101%. The average overround for Betfair prices, after allowing for the 5% commission that they correctly show (as their target audience will be those that do not currently use Betfair) is 104%. On average, the Betfair price is about 5% worse than the main bookmakers (three odds 5% worse than true works out to 103.33%!). It was best in 0, yes zero, of these, so it was clearly never best price on the winning outcome either. So, the advert is a complete con, using a clever comparison to deceive the customer.

And the above is disregarding Premium Charges, which successful players incur, and other charges for using an API etc. I think that Betfair will soon have no customers, as they are never best price, and especially if "business" users might be required to have a gambling license. A large West London company which trades on soccer is using them less and less.

Betfair says "Don't Settle for Less"
I only use them under duress
Premium Charges apply
Which can reach the Sky
And they increase with every success

[superfrank]

The average overround of the best prices of the leading bookmakers that it uses for the Premiership last year was 101%.

surprised by that so just checked the overround on Man City v Liverpool and it's 100.6%.

best odds:
Man City 6/4
Liverpool 21/10
Draw 38/15

[gampas]

Yes, and at half-time in Liverpool v Man City, you could get 1.62 Liverpool on Bwin 3.9 Draw on Bwin and 8 on City with Bet365. That was a 99.9% book, with a tiny arb, while Betfair was worse on all three outcomes Betfair after commission were 1.56 Liverpool, 3.80 the draw and 7.84 City.

So, there is no real need for Betfair for in-play betting either, and that is before PC is considered!