See-saws , swings and roundabouts !

[switesh]

Thank you very much for your kind feedback Peter, and Ferru 123.

Ferru123 -

My entry points are mainly based on Technical Analysis (WOM, EMA, Vol and sometimes MACD). Though you're right, sometimes I trade with my gut (usually when I'm in trouble )

I usually cut out quickly, but sometimes the loss gets too big to handle and that's when I freeze. I've thought many times about how I could address this but of no avail yet.

Peter -

Thanks for pointing out about the jumpiness in my trading style. Absolutely True. To address the issue of cutting out too quickly within the envelope of short term volatility I'm going to work on calculating ATR (Average True Range) in the SingleMarket spreadsheet to give me a better idea of where to place Stop-Loss.

On a general note about my trading - I just realized that I'm naturally inclined toward playing drifters. I almost always find myself opening lay positions. I can't ever remember backing a steamer.

Does anyone else have this strange characteristic of being a layer?

Regards,
Switesh

[PeterLe]

Switesh
Just some comments on the second video...
Not easy to do; but try keeping an eye on the price of the second favourite too. When the price on the fav hits 1.92 you can see that there is still money on the back side of the second favourite. So you could have entered the market with a lay bet at around 1.92 with a little more security knowing that there is still money on the back side of the second horse. (Visa versa for the exit). There are enough BOTS out there that takes advantage of any errors on the book price so it will always be near 100%*, this can work well for you and serves well as another input.
This is much more difficult on thin markets too, so I would stay away from them as the price will bounce all over
Regards
Peter
PS * I say 100% above, but in reality it is a little more than 100%..and will vary depending upon how many horses there are in the race. The more runners the higher the book price on the back side.
PPS: I'm all for having a go rather than use the training mode, but why not lower your stakes until you have cracked it? (assuming you are using live mode that is!)

[JOIZZY]

Hi , if i could get back to the original points i was making.....
This week i have made a record of the movement of 100 Favs prices from 7 mins out " after " it`s first move eg 3.75 to 4.00 - what happened next.
Unsurprisingly , you might have guessed , 54 prices then went out and 46 came in. I`m sure with a longer more thorough record it would level out !
My point is the old chestnut of prediction - The Betangel Blog post today is knocking those people /services/traders who are attempting to predict the next move of the price along the lines of " it`s wrong trying to predict the next move BASED ON PROBABILITY " .
Surely that is all we have is it not?
Are we not trying to work out the most likely next move based on the evidence in front of us?
I have spent the last 2 years trying ( with limited success ) to predict the next move based on probabilities but evidently that is hogwash.
I would be very confident in saying i have read many times in the past something along the lines of " you`ve only got to tip the balance in your favour a tiny amount in order to be profitable so long as you put things in your favour - that can only mean " the likelihood of what will happen next.
Any views appreciated.

[Iron]

My point is the old chestnut of prediction - The Betangel Blog post today is knocking those people /services/traders who are attempting to predict the next move of the price along the lines of " it`s wrong trying to predict the next move BASED ON PROBABILITY " .
Surely that is all we have is it not?

No.

You don't need to predict the market - you can react to it. Let's say that you know that, at some point, the market is likely to go crazy. You don't know when or in which direction. If you repeatedly cut your losses and let your profits run, you'll eventually ride a big wave. The downside is that you'll have to put up with being wrong 50% of the time and periods where you have failed trade after failed trade (so good money management is essential).

Jeff

PS The blog article referred to can be found at http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2012/09 ... r-trading/.

[Euler]

No, you misinterpreted the blog post. It was saying that people, but mainly system, sellers (for commercial reasons) like to pursue high probability strategies.

I wouldn't consider a swing trade a high probability trade. I probably get more wrong than I get right, but when I get it right I ride it right up but I am quick to get out if I cock up. If you average profit is 3 times your loss you can afford to be mainly wrong but still be in profit. But people have great difficulty in admitting they are wrong.

[James1st]

Joizzy, I have read and re-read that article but cannot find your quote nor can I relate the article to your other comments in your post. The article, well explained, is highlighting the difference between high probability trades (that can still produce a net loss) and low probability trades that may or may not actually be a better option, even if it isn't a sexy idea.

Leaving the article aside for now, and on the question of "prediction". It is always true that a trader attempts to predict the market direction for the simple reason that when a trader lays he is "predicting" a rise in the odds and when he backs, he is "predicting" a fall. Even those who enter on either side of the book are making a prediction; that being that the market will range between predicted values. It is also true, as Ferru says that you can choose to "react" to a market move but if you followed every market moves direction without consideration of whether this move is reasonable/expected/predictable then you may find this strategy difficult to make profitable.

Predicting is good; it is the only way you can profit from the market

[JollyGreen]

Predicting is good; it is the only way you can profit from the market

I would agree this is the way to be more successful. Yes, there are occasions when you can react to a market but they are usually large moves that are obvious. They can be caused by a horse bolting for example and everyone can catch them. You can catch other moves but long term I don't believe they would offer sufficient opportunities to make them a reliable strategy unless you had other methods to supplement your profits.

There is already a delay in what you see so reacting to old data puts you at a disadvantage. The person(s) that caused the move did so for a reason so they have the drop on anyone trying to react to what they did. How many of us have joined a trade on a drift only to find it then stops, reverses and we all shout aaarrggghhh??!!?

[JOIZZY]

Hi , interesting responses and thanks for contributing :-
I get the blog post and wasn`t trying to directly relate to it specifically and didn`t quote from it , only pulling together various strands of thought i have experienced.
This is where us "also rans" get very confused!
So here goes...
1.Ferru , your general advice seems to be reacting to the market - perhaps jumping on the trend and attempting to ride a wave ? Take a few hits along the way and HOPE to catch a wave " eventually ".
2.Euler , be a contrarian trader , attempting to get in at the top /bottom of a trend which is coming to it`s conclusion and about to turn.
3.James1st and JollyGreen , Predicting is where it`s at .....
The fav is being well backed so perhaps lay the 2nd fav as we are predicting it SHOULD drift in the near future.
4. I`ve also read recently a post from a prominent forum member , talking about setting up his spreadsheet for the day on his holidays before the family got up and coming back later in the day to count up his profits - this clearly indicates a fixed rule " system " is being utilised - something we are constantly advised DOES NOT work - do this , do that and you will profit i.e. all us newbies come on forums and want to be told about the secret winning formula that does not exist.
I know all of you are successful traders and i have read many posts from you all and respect your judgements.
I guess it comes down to what many have said before. Find a style that fits your personality / tolerance levels , do your own thing , take all advice with a pinch of salt.
I have personally tried all of the above styles of trading , am very analytical by nature and come from 35 year of punting but still make Zero.
I can confidently predict i will trade 20/30 races today , win some , lose some , using $50 stakes and if i`m lucky i make $5 !!!
God knows how you all do it.
ps - No sign of those videos yet.....

[freddy]

I can see where you coming from it's a total mine field for beginners.

There are 5 types of people on here imo

1. Successful trader's who know what there doing,
There advice is valuable, but it's also important to remember that their way is not the only way, two pro's can have two totally opposing views .

2. People who can’t make money, but have read all the textbooks.

3. Fantasists who say they make money when they don't.
Or newcomers who have made a profit for a day or two and think that they know it all .

4. Newcomers like yourself keen to learn

5. Newcomers that think the world owes them a living
And want a click and win strategy.

My advice is to listen to what’s been said in this thread and to realize that there are many many ways’s of being profitable, this should be a very encouraging sign to everyone.

Then go away and put in the hours and hours of work in and serve your apprenticeship.
after this then there is a good chance you will find your niche and slowly start to profit.

good luck

[CaerMyrddin]

this clearly indicates a fixed rule " system " is being utilised - something we are constantly advised DOES NOT work

And well, it doesn't. Ask that forum member how many times he has had to tweek and finetune his strategies.

I've had to adjust my style and have found and lost so many edges so many times since my adventure started, one would be surprised. Things are constantly changing...

[Iron]

1.Ferru , your general advice seems to be reacting to the market - perhaps jumping on the trend and attempting to ride a wave ? Take a few hits along the way and HOPE to catch a wave " eventually ".

If you knew in advance when waves were going to arise, you'd be extremely rich. But as you don't, you have to settle for opening trades in conditions where they are likely to arise. To carry on the wave analogy, if you are waiting for a wave and the water is as flat as a mill pond, it might be worth taking your surfboard to a beach up the road.

2.Euler , be a contrarian trader , attempting to get in at the top /bottom of a trend which is coming to it`s conclusion and about to turn.

I'm not sure whether that is Peter's approach, or if it's more about riding the short-term counter-trend momentum in the hope that it becomes longer term. Peter- Could you clarify please?

3.James1st and JollyGreen , Predicting is where it`s at .....

I think a distinction needs to be drawn between predicting which direction the price will go in next and predicting less specific things like the market volatility, or the fact that the market repeatedly demonstrates certain patterns of behavior. I'm fine with the latter, but I'm not sure anyone knows for sure whether the price will be higher than it is now in a minute's time...

As an aside, I was listening to an interview yesterday with trading author Alexander Elder. One of the things he said is that market behaviour in one nation is indistinguishable from market behaviour in another nation, as crowd behaviour is pretty constant throughout the world. It's that mob psychology that you need to exploit.

I`ve also read recently a post from a prominent forum member , talking about setting up his spreadsheet for the day on his holidays before the family got up and coming back later in the day to count up his profits - this clearly indicates a fixed rule " system " is being utilised

I've no doubt at all that it's possible to design a spreadsheet that can profit long-term from Betfair. If computers can beat Gary Kasparov at chess, I'm sure they are capable of extracting an edge on Betfair...

something we are constantly advised DOES NOT work - do this , do that and you will profit i.e. all us newbies come on forums and want to be told about the secret winning formula that does not exist.

There isn't a single winning formula exists, but if you knew exactly how a pro approaches his trading then in time you could replicate his results (assuming that you didn't fall into any psychological traps). Whether or not we humans like to admit it, we basically follow a series of algorithms, only some of which we are consciously aware of. I don't believe trading is like golf, where to emulate Tiger Woods you'd need not only to understand his calculations but also to have his unconscious ability to judge how much force to use to get a golf ball to a particular point on the course. As Peter once wrote in this forum: 'I have some well defined strategies in hand and deploy them if the time is right.'

I am very analytical by nature and come from 35 year of punting but still make Zero.

You may be over-analysing the market. I once read that, as a group, traders are in the top 10% of the population intelligence wise, yet most lose money constantly. Go figure...

Jeff

[JOIZZY]

Hi Ferru , thank you very much for a full blown reply and the details therein.
Yes , i feel you are perhaps correct in your final comment re over-analysis - i spent 3 to 4 years playing/learning on-line poker and whilst i know all the percentage calls and what to do in each seating position etc still could not win as you are constantly being called by players with mathematically poorer hands who still seem to win even though they were not " playing correctly " - just playing for the fun of it!!
For now , i will continue trying new ideas and see where that takes me. I must have learned something over the past 3 years after all.
Cheers.

[Iron]

Hi Joizzy

The psychological side of trading cannot be underestimated.

An analogy. Losing weight is very simple in terms of the mechanics of it. The difficult part comes in remaining disciplined - in avoiding that chocolate cake when you're tired, stressed and hungry and there is a voice inside your head giving you a dozen reasons why you should eat it. The same challenges exist in trading - you need to see what the market is doing and respond accordingly, rather than letting your wishes affect your perception of what's happening in the market. Easier said than done...

Jeff