Sadly, my health has prevented me from posting my mental rambles! Today is pretty much the same but I've been awake since 05:00 with pain and I've been having the odd look at the racing today.
This race caught my eye because the favourite is possibly just the best of a bad bunch! I will talk in Betfair prices and 2.20 is mental! Before you reach for the lay button please read all of my ramble!
I looked at this race after answering the "lay the field" question. Listowel, pleasant as it may be is actually a pretty low grade course IMHO. The ground is supposedly heavy today and that always grabs my attention.
The Racing Post comment for the favourite Johnny Lynch is "Claims are boosted by state of the track even though they weren´t clear to start with" That sounds like complete clap trap to me...who the hell wrote that garbage? You would assume from the comment that this going would suit, would you agree? My first check was his debut run which was on heavy at Leopardstown. That was back in June but nothing in that race suggested he enjoyed the ground. So I looked at his pedigree but nothing in that suggests he will act on Heavy ground. I looked at his action and that also does not lend itself to heavy ground suitability.
So why is he 2.20 and a warm favourite? Beats me,
I could not have this at 2.20 in my book and in fact I would have him at 3.00 at best and if I wanted to back him I would want 3.50 - 3.75 minimum.There are quite a few non-runners which is presumably down to the heavy going and this has altered the shape of the race and the structure of the market. I just feel this is the best of a bad bunch. I have looked at the others and none of them has a pedigree to suggest this ground will suit or an action that may act on this going.
Obviously something has to win but backing horses of this ilk at 2.20 would send you to the poor house pretty quickly.
It may be a lay to back opportunity or a lay the field chance - it's a poor race, I know that and I would not invest my money to find out if Johnny Lynch can win.
