Hi, short and to the point:-
1, Is a swing trade classified as a price that starts from a certain price , hits a high/low point then heads off in the direction to where it began or could a 5 tick move from any point just as easily be called a swing trade.
2, When people discuss " how much to risk " from a given bank on each trade , are they talking about risk at the stop loss point - ie if using a £1000 bank , using £100 back trade ( £900 NOT in use whatsoever ) , red out if losing £10 = 10% of the £100 but only 1% of the £1000 ?
I`ve read on threads traders risking 10-20% of their BANK , but this seems very high - do they mean / should i be thinking more like 10% of the trade stakes as per example so only risking 1% of my overall bank.
3, The last 1 minute seems very unpredictable with often substantial movement - at what point is it " safest " to withdraw from the market.
Thanks as always.
Clarification Frustration
1. Why does it matter if it's called a swing trade or scalp. Profit is profit.
But I would say a scalp in and out quickly for 1or 2 tick profit. A swing is a more long term view where you would hope for more ticks. i.e. I was on a horse called Dutch Masterpiece yesterday. I backed it in the morning at 4.4 and exited just before the off at 2.44. This is a swing but lasted several hours. If I was scalping I may have waited until the last 5 mins and nipped in and out of the market taking 1 tick at a time. I don't like this type of trading, but that's me personally. I find I'm not very good at it.
2. I work like this. My bank is split into 3. so in effect I have 3 banks. One of them is my working bank and is in my BF account. The other 2 are safely in my "bank". I have never had to draw on them yet, but they are set aside from my other household money.
Whenever i strike a bet I make a plan as to how much of the stake I have used I am willing to lose before I exit the trade. This very much depends on your strike rate. My exit position on Dutch Masterpiece was 4.9. That gave me a 5 tick loss if i had it wrong. Any tighter and you get caught up in the ebb and flow of the market. I set it 5 ticks because if reached that price I would have got my reasons for entering the trade wrong and there would be no point persisting with it. This is a trading reason as well as a money management one. If it was a 2.1 I would allow more ticks for the same reason. If I had staked 10% of my bank.In this trade a 5 tick loss would have given me a 10% loss on my stake. Which is a 1% loss of my bank.
To put this in simple terms: £1000 bank. £100 back bet. £10 loss.
My bank is considerably more than £1000. I would have loved to get 10% of it on Dutch Masterpiece, but that was not possible. So I got as much as i could on and managed the risk the same.
I often use my whole bank in a trade if I see the possibility of the right trade. I do have 2 other "banks" in reserve though. If you are trading it's about managing your downside and maximum loss. Not so much how much of your bank your using at 1 time. If your scalping and have a modest bank, there is no reason not to use 75% of it at a time. If you are tick trading (scalping) If you entered a back bet at 2.1 and hoped to make 1 tick (2.08) why would you let the trade go out 10 ticks? If you only hope to make 1 tick? Unless your success rate was 9/10 your in trouble.
There are some caveats here though.
If Betfair goes down get your stuffed.
If you don't manage your downside, which is the biggest mistake a
lot of traders make - let it go in play, hope the price comes back and it doesn't so your out of control and open to huge if not total losses.
I am not advocating this is how you manage your bank. Just wanted to let you see how I manage mine. I should also add that every trade I make is documented. At the end of the session I record the bets on a spreadsheet and add comments. This review process helps me to identify the mistakes I made and how to improve.
3. Simply depends on the fill rate and how long it takes to get matched. If it's a thin market and your using £20 stakes you could go right up until the last 2or 3 horses are being loaded. But I wouldn't stick in £5K behind a queue of £20k waiting to get matched with 3 horses left. You should after a while get a feel for each market and the fill rates and how quickly the money is being consumed. However, there is a lull close to the start where everybody else has exited their positions, you could end up with no one around to match your money.
My POV is safety first. protect your bank at all times.
I'm sure this will throw up more questions that it has answered. This works for me.
But I would say a scalp in and out quickly for 1or 2 tick profit. A swing is a more long term view where you would hope for more ticks. i.e. I was on a horse called Dutch Masterpiece yesterday. I backed it in the morning at 4.4 and exited just before the off at 2.44. This is a swing but lasted several hours. If I was scalping I may have waited until the last 5 mins and nipped in and out of the market taking 1 tick at a time. I don't like this type of trading, but that's me personally. I find I'm not very good at it.
2. I work like this. My bank is split into 3. so in effect I have 3 banks. One of them is my working bank and is in my BF account. The other 2 are safely in my "bank". I have never had to draw on them yet, but they are set aside from my other household money.
Whenever i strike a bet I make a plan as to how much of the stake I have used I am willing to lose before I exit the trade. This very much depends on your strike rate. My exit position on Dutch Masterpiece was 4.9. That gave me a 5 tick loss if i had it wrong. Any tighter and you get caught up in the ebb and flow of the market. I set it 5 ticks because if reached that price I would have got my reasons for entering the trade wrong and there would be no point persisting with it. This is a trading reason as well as a money management one. If it was a 2.1 I would allow more ticks for the same reason. If I had staked 10% of my bank.In this trade a 5 tick loss would have given me a 10% loss on my stake. Which is a 1% loss of my bank.
To put this in simple terms: £1000 bank. £100 back bet. £10 loss.
My bank is considerably more than £1000. I would have loved to get 10% of it on Dutch Masterpiece, but that was not possible. So I got as much as i could on and managed the risk the same.
I often use my whole bank in a trade if I see the possibility of the right trade. I do have 2 other "banks" in reserve though. If you are trading it's about managing your downside and maximum loss. Not so much how much of your bank your using at 1 time. If your scalping and have a modest bank, there is no reason not to use 75% of it at a time. If you are tick trading (scalping) If you entered a back bet at 2.1 and hoped to make 1 tick (2.08) why would you let the trade go out 10 ticks? If you only hope to make 1 tick? Unless your success rate was 9/10 your in trouble.
There are some caveats here though.
If Betfair goes down get your stuffed.
If you don't manage your downside, which is the biggest mistake a
lot of traders make - let it go in play, hope the price comes back and it doesn't so your out of control and open to huge if not total losses.
I am not advocating this is how you manage your bank. Just wanted to let you see how I manage mine. I should also add that every trade I make is documented. At the end of the session I record the bets on a spreadsheet and add comments. This review process helps me to identify the mistakes I made and how to improve.
3. Simply depends on the fill rate and how long it takes to get matched. If it's a thin market and your using £20 stakes you could go right up until the last 2or 3 horses are being loaded. But I wouldn't stick in £5K behind a queue of £20k waiting to get matched with 3 horses left. You should after a while get a feel for each market and the fill rates and how quickly the money is being consumed. However, there is a lull close to the start where everybody else has exited their positions, you could end up with no one around to match your money.
My POV is safety first. protect your bank at all times.
I'm sure this will throw up more questions that it has answered. This works for me.
Ditto operation and take note this didnt come overnightmugsgame wrote:1. Why does it matter if it's called a swing trade or scalp. Profit is profit.
But I would say a scalp in and out quickly for 1or 2 tick profit. A swing is a more long term view where you would hope for more ticks. i.e. I was on a horse called Dutch Masterpiece yesterday. I backed it in the morning at 4.4 and exited just before the off at 2.44. This is a swing but lasted several hours. If I was scalping I may have waited until the last 5 mins and nipped in and out of the market taking 1 tick at a time. I don't like this type of trading, but that's me personally. I find I'm not very good at it.
2. I work like this. My bank is split into 3. so in effect I have 3 banks. One of them is my working bank and is in my BF account. The other 2 are safely in my "bank". I have never had to draw on them yet, but they are set aside from my other household money.
Whenever i strike a bet I make a plan as to how much of the stake I have used I am willing to lose before I exit the trade. This very much depends on your strike rate. My exit position on Dutch Masterpiece was 4.9. That gave me a 5 tick loss if i had it wrong. Any tighter and you get caught up in the ebb and flow of the market. I set it 5 ticks because if reached that price I would have got my reasons for entering the trade wrong and there would be no point persisting with it. This is a trading reason as well as a money management one. If it was a 2.1 I would allow more ticks for the same reason. If I had staked 10% of my bank.In this trade a 5 tick loss would have given me a 10% loss on my stake. Which is a 1% loss of my bank.
To put this in simple terms: £1000 bank. £100 back bet. £10 loss.
My bank is considerably more than £1000. I would have loved to get 10% of it on Dutch Masterpiece, but that was not possible. So I got as much as i could on and managed the risk the same.
I often use my whole bank in a trade if I see the possibility of the right trade. I do have 2 other "banks" in reserve though. If you are trading it's about managing your downside and maximum loss. Not so much how much of your bank your using at 1 time. If your scalping and have a modest bank, there is no reason not to use 75% of it at a time. If you are tick trading (scalping) If you entered a back bet at 2.1 and hoped to make 1 tick (2.08) why would you let the trade go out 10 ticks? If you only hope to make 1 tick? Unless your success rate was 9/10 your in trouble.
There are some caveats here though.
If Betfair goes down get your stuffed.
If you don't manage your downside, which is the biggest mistake a
lot of traders make - let it go in play, hope the price comes back and it doesn't so your out of control and open to huge if not total losses.
I am not advocating this is how you manage your bank. Just wanted to let you see how I manage mine. I should also add that every trade I make is documented. At the end of the session I record the bets on a spreadsheet and add comments. This review process helps me to identify the mistakes I made and how to improve.
3. Simply depends on the fill rate and how long it takes to get matched. If it's a thin market and your using £20 stakes you could go right up until the last 2or 3 horses are being loaded. But I wouldn't stick in £5K behind a queue of £20k waiting to get matched with 3 horses left. You should after a while get a feel for each market and the fill rates and how quickly the money is being consumed. However, there is a lull close to the start where everybody else has exited their positions, you could end up with no one around to match your money.
My POV is safety first. protect your bank at all times.
I'm sure this will throw up more questions that it has answered. This works for me.
Hi ,thanks Mugsgame , as usual a full and clear answer.
i appreciate the time it has taken to reply.
Your answer re what a swing trade is , was what i wanted to hear , in the sense that you explained that the price went from 4.4 to 2.44 ie it DIDNOT swing back up but you still called it a swing ! i personally would have called that a steamer - 7-2 to 6-4 !!
The point of my initial question is that peoples` ( mine ) understanding of even the basics can be misunderstood / misinterpreted as in the example above.
I like the idea of recording the results of my entry points / mistakes or whatever so i`ll give that a go i think.
Thanks again.
i appreciate the time it has taken to reply.
Your answer re what a swing trade is , was what i wanted to hear , in the sense that you explained that the price went from 4.4 to 2.44 ie it DIDNOT swing back up but you still called it a swing ! i personally would have called that a steamer - 7-2 to 6-4 !!
The point of my initial question is that peoples` ( mine ) understanding of even the basics can be misunderstood / misinterpreted as in the example above.
I like the idea of recording the results of my entry points / mistakes or whatever so i`ll give that a go i think.
Thanks again.
-
smartypants59
- Posts: 34
- Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:41 am
thanks guys a very informative post and to the point iv'e done what mugsgame says not to do about letting it run into play and the trading out fOR A MASSIVE LOSS.... mugsgame you give great advice thanks again
i like reading your posts
i like reading your posts