Short "1st run" favorite
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giulio2010
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I have the feeling that if you layed every single short favorite at their 1st start ever you may come out with profit...I have been seeing horses lately paid from 1.7 to 1.5 on their 1st start ever and lost..I may start to take a proper record of it....I understand those price are influenced by the stable, the bred and the jockey, but in my opinion I feel confident that 1.5 is way to short for a horse that never raced before..Unless the horse name is Frankel..lol
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Dublin_Flyer
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It can happen a lot in Irish meetings, people see an expensive Coolmore horse with good breeding and back it heavily, but sometimes one of it's stable mates will be better. John Oxx is known for never giving horses a hard time on their first run, if one of his horses is a short price it can be better to back it on 2nd or 3rd run.
The breeding or purchase price of a 2 year old can directly influence its price, when it is irrelevant to how good it is.
The breeding or purchase price of a 2 year old can directly influence its price, when it is irrelevant to how good it is.
Based on Adrian Massey's database (http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/ ... E0MDU0OA==), it appears you wouldn't. 
Jeff
Jeff
giulio2010 wrote:I have the feeling that if you layed every single short favorite at their 1st start ever you may come out with profit...
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giulio2010
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Hi ferru123, thanks for providing that information is very usefull...If I decided to take records about 1st run favorite I am looking to find some indications different then the % you have posted...Dubin flyer have given already an indication about irish racing...For example sometimes horses have to travel 2.6m 3.0m, it just rained and you have one short favorite that never raced before in his life at 1.6 and there 20, 15 horses to compete with..That's the kind of things I will be looking for..it's just an example....
Horse A 1.5
Horse B 1.5
same odds different potential..
Manchester united 1.5 HW
Chelsea 1.5 HW
Everton 1.5 HW
same odds, possibility of different potential but for the stats they all have the same possible outcome...
Horse A 1.5
Horse B 1.5
same odds different potential..
Manchester united 1.5 HW
Chelsea 1.5 HW
Everton 1.5 HW
same odds, possibility of different potential but for the stats they all have the same possible outcome...
Hi Giulio
Good luck, although the Betfair odds are extremely accurate overall, and IMHO unless you are a horse racing expert you won't beat them long term. And even if you are an expert, it may often be that market odds are higher or lower than the horse's form says they should be because someone knows something that isn't in the public domain.
Jeff
PS Say 'hello' to Stef from me.
Good luck, although the Betfair odds are extremely accurate overall, and IMHO unless you are a horse racing expert you won't beat them long term. And even if you are an expert, it may often be that market odds are higher or lower than the horse's form says they should be because someone knows something that isn't in the public domain.
Jeff
PS Say 'hello' to Stef from me.
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giulio2010
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I will say hi to Stef for you, it will be my pleasure ... It was her who taught me what to look for, especially in football ...
Sometimes I think that you guys are too negative and not very open-minded, "no offense", to understand that the edges exist and are not represented in the statistics .. The other day superfrank thought I had claimed to have found the holy grail in trading but in reality my statements were focused in another direction .. You guys probably more older than me and try to highlight the dangers of the business as would a person with more experience, "I really appreaciate that", but at the same time you have to put in mind that there are edges and will be discovered by new generations, especially with a good dialogue with the old mold and dialogues we can share in this forum..This business need a refreshness and we " youngest" may just deliver that...
Sometimes I think that you guys are too negative and not very open-minded, "no offense", to understand that the edges exist and are not represented in the statistics .. The other day superfrank thought I had claimed to have found the holy grail in trading but in reality my statements were focused in another direction .. You guys probably more older than me and try to highlight the dangers of the business as would a person with more experience, "I really appreaciate that", but at the same time you have to put in mind that there are edges and will be discovered by new generations, especially with a good dialogue with the old mold and dialogues we can share in this forum..This business need a refreshness and we " youngest" may just deliver that...
Hi Giulio
If you are referring to looking at market movements to gauge whether there is an insider knowledge at play or a horse has been over-backed or over-layed, I keep an open mind as regards such approaches but they are fraught with difficulty. For example, let's say that insider money backed a horse down from 3.2 to 2.8. The people doing the backing may have got value, but if you back at 2.78, there is no saying you will.
Jeff
PS Ask Stef who won when she and I played a game of 'predict the winner of the next horse race' one afternoon!
If you are referring to looking at market movements to gauge whether there is an insider knowledge at play or a horse has been over-backed or over-layed, I keep an open mind as regards such approaches but they are fraught with difficulty. For example, let's say that insider money backed a horse down from 3.2 to 2.8. The people doing the backing may have got value, but if you back at 2.78, there is no saying you will.
Jeff
PS Ask Stef who won when she and I played a game of 'predict the winner of the next horse race' one afternoon!
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giulio2010
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I will ask her...reading your P.S. it seems you have won...
However when someone is showing you everything possible and I know that I am here because of that opportunity, sex is the last thing I am thinking of ( to respond you to the other post) but i totally understand what you mean...
here an example what I mean when someone showing you the real way and what to look for..
However when someone is showing you everything possible and I know that I am here because of that opportunity, sex is the last thing I am thinking of ( to respond you to the other post) but i totally understand what you mean...
here an example what I mean when someone showing you the real way and what to look for..
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It was quite a narrow victory, in fairness!giulio2010 wrote:I will ask her...reading your P.S. it seems you have won...
Why was The Obvious Choice the obvious choice to bet on? Sorry, couldn't resist the terrible pun!giulio2010 wrote:here an example what I mean when someone showing you the real way and what to look for..
Seriously, though, if you're confident in your methods, why bet such low stakes? Why not start with a small bank and bet x% of it on each bet? If you have an edge and if your method gives you plenty of bets, then your bank will grow very quickly.Jeff
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giulio2010
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These are just tryals...in 6-12 months I can tell you if our researches and data will work in trading and laying or backing horses...last Friday we have had some outstanding results...but still too early to say...
P.S. making 4.95 out 0,92P investiment on the favorite, I personally think is cracking result...If happens very often I can only be positive about it...But I must not lower the guard...
P.S. last 2 races at wolv...obvious choices ofc but with un unbelievable ROI...
P.S. making 4.95 out 0,92P investiment on the favorite, I personally think is cracking result...If happens very often I can only be positive about it...But I must not lower the guard...
P.S. last 2 races at wolv...obvious choices ofc but with un unbelievable ROI...
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Historical data can provide indications of possible market inefficiencies, but it has its limitations. The problem is that the market can correct its historical inefficiencies (sometimes as a result of people trying to exploit those inefficiencies).
Have a look at this page: http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2012/04 ... revisited/. Someone could have done lots of data crunching covering 8,000 football matches, and then applied what the historical data told them was a winning system, but lost a fortune! As Peter writes:
'Anybody can be a ‘god’ for a short period of time, or in this case over 15,000 matches. But doing that over many, many years is much harder.'
Jeff
Have a look at this page: http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2012/04 ... revisited/. Someone could have done lots of data crunching covering 8,000 football matches, and then applied what the historical data told them was a winning system, but lost a fortune! As Peter writes:
'Anybody can be a ‘god’ for a short period of time, or in this case over 15,000 matches. But doing that over many, many years is much harder.'
Jeff
giulio2010 wrote:These are just tryals...in 6-12 months I can tell you if our researches and data will work in trading and laying or backing horses
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
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In total fairness historical data " in terms of statistics" means not much to me perhaps to us...If I lay the draw in every single games I would lose money.... If I lay the draw in specific games I may have an edge.That is the historical data you need to look for ..Ferru123 I understand excatly what are you talking about but please do more researches on the possible outcomes perhaps you may find an edge too....ofc no offence...
P.s. ask to your self lucky again????
P.s. ask to your self lucky again????
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None taken.giulio2010 wrote:Ferru123 I understand excatly what are you talking about but please do more researches on the possible outcomes perhaps you may find an edge too....ofc no offence...
I was a professional gambler for two years, so I don't believe that the quest for an edge is futile. As for why I'm no longer a pro gambler, it's a long story, but I suspect I may have given up on my system too quickly. If the bookies hadn't shut down my accounts, I'd still be betting from home when I wasn't at work. I really can't be bothered spending my evenings and weekends sat in a pub finding bets on my laptop using a wireless connection, and walking over to the bookies every time I do!
You are comparing apples with oranges, given that the screenshot illustrates profitable trading, when what we are talking about is profitable betting.giulio2010 wrote:P.s. ask to your self lucky again????
Jeff
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giulio2010
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It was closed in PLAY.. it was profitable betting...I can also show you from next monday profitable trades based on our researches... Monday to thursday TRADING....friday, saturday and sunday BETTING...Ferru123 wrote:You are comparing apples with oranges, given that the screenshot illustrates profitable trading, when what we are talking about is profitable betting.
P.S. have you ever thought to come over Italy? we may change your mind...
Why close it in play? If you have value on your side, does it not make sense to let the bet run, unless you're confident that you're laying in-play at a value price?giulio2010 wrote: It was closed in PLAY..
Are you recording your bets on a spreadsheet? If so, do you know what your ROI is, ie for every euro you risk, what your profit is?giulio2010 wrote:it was profitable betting...I can also show you from next monday profitable trades based on our researches... Monday to thursday TRADING....friday, saturday and sunday BETTING...
Thank you for the kind offer, but as Stef hasn't corresponded with me for something like 9 months (despite me emailing her), I'm not sure I'd be welcome!giulio2010 wrote:P.S. have you ever thought to come over Italy? we may change your mind...
I'd love to know why Stef isn't speaking to me. I thought she and I were mates. I even put something she wrote in my profile on a dating site! I made a jokey comment in the forum about corruption in Italy which she didn't like, but I wouldn't have thought that would have caused her to break off communications permanently! Oh well, it's her choice...
Jeff