Understanding liability

[Seymour]

Could some kind trader please explain to me where I can find my exact liability on Bet Angel as there seem to be 4-5 figures on the ladder and one-click page.
I have been trading horses around 15.0 with an offset bet and auto greening. All field horses usually end up green except the frequent red figure in the trade profit column. I have just taken a hit from an Irish horse "Brassbound" and want to know how I can keep an eye on my overall liability in the future.

Is it possible to trade (with greening) without the risk of large losses or is it just a matter of 10 steps forward and eight back on an ongoing basis? Or is greening a significant risk? So far my losses tend to be a maximum of $35 (based on $20 bets) so losing $254 in one go has been a bit of a shock

Thanks

Jon

[mugsgame]

Trading horses in this price range - especially Irish racing is not a great idea - As you can see it's fraught with danger.

If you are sure that this is the way you want to trade, why not use "global settings" and choose liability in the auto staking box. You may need to look in the user manual to get this right.

The profit trade column in the ladder will show you your overall position, as will the profit trade calculator which can be undocked form the icons bar. (it's between the G+ and the one that looks like a rev counter.

[Alpha322]

Could some kind trader please explain to me where I can find my exact liability on Bet Angel as there seem to be 4-5 figures on the ladder and one-click page.
I have been trading horses around 15.0 with an offset bet and auto greening. All field horses usually end up green except the frequent red figure in the trade profit column. I have just taken a hit from an Irish horse "Brassbound" and want to know how I can keep an eye on my overall liability in the future.

Is it possible to trade (with greening) without the risk of large losses or is it just a matter of 10 steps forward and eight back on an ongoing basis? Or is greening a significant risk? So far my losses tend to be a maximum of $35 (based on $20 bets) so losing $254 in one go has been a bit of a shock

Thanks

Jon

Not being funny but if you dont understand liability and are trying to trade horses with prices as big as 15.0 you need to go back to betfair basics. If i were to put £10 on a 15.0 shot lay bet and that horse went on to win the race i would lose £150 out of my betfair bankroll,(that is my liability) if the horse lost then i would keep the backers £10, i dont think you are ready for trading so i wont explain basics of a trade
good luck

[PeterLe]

Could some kind trader please explain to me where I can find my exact liability on Bet Angel as there seem to be 4-5 figures on the ladder and one-click page.
I have been trading horses around 15.0 with an offset bet and auto greening. All field horses usually end up green except the frequent red figure in the trade profit column. I have just taken a hit from an Irish horse "Brassbound" and want to know how I can keep an eye on my overall liability in the future.

Is it possible to trade (with greening) without the risk of large losses or is it just a matter of 10 steps forward and eight back on an ongoing basis? Or is greening a significant risk? So far my losses tend to be a maximum of $35 (based on $20 bets) so losing $254 in one go has been a bit of a shock

Thanks

Jon

Not being funny but if you dont understand liability and are trying to trade horses with prices as big as 15.0 you need to go back to betfair basics. If i were to put £10 on a 15.0 shot lay bet and that horse went on to win the race i would lose £150 out of my betfair bankroll

It would be £140 not £150

[freddy]

[Seymour]

Thanks Mugsgame, what a brilliant idea. Using the Autostake switched to liability may be just what I need. I will re-read the manual to make sure I understand fully.

Alpha, I asked a question relating to the various changing figures on the one-click and ladder pages. The reason I asked was because the P/L, total liability and individual field liabilities can change very quickly, which at times can be a little confusing.
EG. Green figures produced on all other horses can change to red or zero green then perhaps back again all on the one race. Sometimes the reasons for these changes are just not that clear.

Understanding liability is not my problem. Learning how it manifests as an array of continually changing figures is what concerns me.

PS Just took another big hit on Cafe Society at Wolv. Oh yes I know what liability is.

Thank you.

Jon

[JollyGreen]

Hi Jon

Can I ask, are you trading in play, pre-race or both? The price shouldn't change that quickly pre-race but as mugsgame says, "it's fraught with danger" at those prices.

I suggest perhaps using the calculators to chose the correct price rather than clicking (or trying to hit) a moving target where your liability could be greater than you wanted.

You can also try using a lower refresh initially while you become accustomed to how quickly the odds move. As you feel more comfortable you can change the refresh accordingly.

Hope that offers something.

JG

[Seymour]

Hi Jollygreen,

I traded in-play for approx 4 months and learnt my lesson financially. It took that long for me to recognise and deal with my own greed. Now I trade pre-race and only use in-play in order to hopefully clear up the occasional loose order. I dont see why horses around 15. are so 'fraught with danger'. Surely a lay bet of $100 on a fav. at 3. is roughly equal to a lay of $20 on a horse at 15? I must be missing something here

Excellent advice regarding the calculators and as for the refresh, if you hadnt mentioned it, it never would have dawned on me. In retrospect, I guess I should have used this forum from the start (6 months ago), so any positive help I now receive makes my day.

regards
Jon

[JollyGreen]

Hi Jon

Volatility is the inverse of volume so on a favourite there will be a greater volume of money and that helps to prevent wild movements. Now before everyone jumps on me and says "what about large sums (from the mad bomber)?" let me explain a bit more.

It is still a question of how much volume is in the market compared to the size of an order hitting said market. So if the average amount of money on each price is ~£500 and a £5000 order hits it then it will react violently. Quite simply the order is too much for the market to absorb. If however you look at a strong market like Cheltenham Festival where there is £3000 on each price that same order of £5000 will cause a small move but it shouldn't be violent.

I know you will always get an exception so I am just trying to explain the principle.

If you then look at a horse priced at 15 then it's implied probability is 6.67% so in a perfect 100% book/market it should attract 6.67% of the volume. That is only theoretical and in reality it isn't likely to happen. If you look at the real figure it will be much lower perhaps 1-2% dependent on the market. This takes us back to the volatility/volume relationship and our runner at 15 will not have too much in terms of volume. So if a player decided to back that runner with a sum out of line with the market then it will not be able to support the amount and you'll get a violent spike. Admittedly, the market may recover but you'll have a sphincter moment as you watch your position go pear shaped!

As most punter/players/traders, call them what you will tend to concentrate on the favourite, you will find most of the money there. Use the Market Overview feature and it will give you a readout of implied probability volume traded etc, this will help you to see where the money is.

So remember, the higher the volume, the lesser the chance of a violent spike. Yes, you will still get crazy moves but they are part of trading and given enough time they should even out for you.

Hope that helps

JG

[Seymour]

Hi JG,

I am so glad I took Mugsgame's advice and left the Irish races at Limerick alone last night. Your explanations have been both enlightening and confidence boosting!

I am not hell-bent on horses at 15. so with my new skills and knowledge I am going to trade favourites for a while and see what happens. I must admit I had concluded volatility to be part of the course particularly as the local Aust. markets are obviously lacking.

If a new trader with 6 intensive months up his sleeve has sound BA skills, do you think it is possible to break out of the 'random effect' Peter talks about?
My records show my scalping ability has improved considerably but I have yet to be able to recognise an 'edge' as such. If I do have an edge I suggest it is purely based on neurological hand/eye/brain development, but is this enough to succeed I wonder?

Thanks again for taking the time to help.
Jon

[Alpha322]

It would be £140 not £150

Oh yes the £10 Stake is the backers

[Alpha322]

Alpha, I asked a question relating to the various changing figures on the one-click and ladder pages. The reason I asked was because the P/L, total liability and individual field liabilities can change very quickly, which at times can be a little confusing.
EG. Green figures produced on all other horses can change to red or zero green then perhaps back again all on the one race. Sometimes the reasons for these changes are just not that clear.

Understanding liability is not my problem. Learning how it manifests as an array of continually changing figures is what concerns me.

PS Just took another big hit on Cafe Society at Wolv. Oh yes I know what liability is.

Thank you.

Jon

Appologies i thought you were just starting out and didnt understand and was laying those horses at those prices because they were easy losing prey. One of my early day hicups on betfair (before i got into pre horse race trading) was laying rags with £25 and thought this is easy money done 5 which gave me a nice £100 for the day the last one was a 14.0 shot which went in, my whole profit and bank of £400 went down the pan well £350 of it, i was in shock how can that happen, well how many times do we see a 50/1 shot go in and win races and the commentators call it a shock result, i dont belive that, what i believe in now is trading, as IMHO all horses in a field have a chance of winning. Odds are a guide to probability not certainty.
Very best of luck enjoy the profits and laugh at the losses as long as they are within your limits

[Seymour]

Thanks Alpha I appreciate that.

I had to laugh at your laying longshots in the early days But I am not sure if it beats my furiously stabbing the $100 and $1000 buttons near the winning post on the first day I used Betfair. And yes I did eventually get a 150 to 1 winner that came back from the dead! So I kept doing it hoping it wouldnt take all my bank which of course it did Nowdays I can laugh because I know I should be able to repair the bank.

See you out there

Jon

[JollyGreen]

A final little story to end this thread, I am glad everyone gained something from it. This is what sets our forum and I do mean "our" forum apart from others. We can disagree which is fine but never let matters become personal. If there is a misunderstanding I like the way people can clarify their remark, apologise if necessary and then move on.

Many years ago someone asked for my advice on creating a BOT to back horses that touched 1.01. He was firmly of the belief that whilst the profits would be small they would be guaranteed. I warned him of the dangers and how one day he would get caught out. Sometime later he sent me an email saying he'd managed 87 consecutive winners. I replied and said quit now whilst you are still ahead to which he replied he was happy to continue.

The next day I had another email from him, I am sure you know the content!

JG

[mugsgame]

My point of view is when you are learning the ropes you should steer clear from bigger prices. Concentrate on the favs, certainly below 3 is where it is safest.

Where the problem lies on prices like 15, especially in the thin markets you appear to be trading. (Irish / AW/ Aus) is when you want to get out of a trade and there is no money to take. You could end up losing an amount bigger than you expect. I can see you understand the liability aspect now. But getting quickly out of a bad position is important. I never get into a trade I cannot see a clear exit out of. Trust me if you do you'll lose in spectacular style.

The only time I get involved in these type of markets is on long term bets (early morning to pre race) and only then on big handicaps at festivals and some Saturdays where there is lots of liquidity.

There is an old saying that sort of rings true in lots of cases here.
"If it seems too good to be true. It usually is"
If you think you have found a little niche that you can exploit, be rest assured that there are plenty of others that have spotted it too, This is the nature of the beast that is Betfair.
MG