Hello experts,
my name is Chris, I'm from Cologne / Germany and quite new to betfair. In my normal business I work for a consulting company in the software-industry. I started using betfair with football / soccer which works quite fine for me.
But when betting on horse-racing, I often experience that the quotes dont't lower a few minutes before the race. I've seen the guardian example on betangel.tv, which works fine if the markets play your game. If they don't, I don't get my lay-bet filled.
Today I experienced this with the Wolv. 19:45 race. The market raised from 3.8 to 6.x when the race began.
What are indicators for this behaviour? Normally, the first horse is the one with the highest probability to win and so the markets / price should come down.
Unfortunally the november-classroom has been canceled and I hope not to burn all my money until the december-classroom starts...
Maybe one of the experts has an idea what I forget to look for?
Kind regards from Cologne / Germany
Chris
what is markets don't come down before start?
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Hallo Chris willkommen
The market is all about supply and demand so the price will move up and down accordingly.
Just because a horse has the highest probability of winning based on the price, does not mean it will win or that it will be shortened in price. As the money flows into the market the horse that attracts the money will shorten and as Betfair is a closed loop market something else generally lengthens in price. So in your example, I would venture the original favourite was not fancied at 3.8 and as there was no demand for the price it simply started to drift out. This drift will continue as others join the trend and start to force the price bigger and bigger.
At the same time I would also venture another horse was being supported so as one came down the other went up (closed loop again) to balance the market.
This can happen if the horse misbehaves in the preliminaries, sweats up badly, looks in poor condition. It can happen if there is a "word" for a horse and many players will simply try and follow the trend.
Naturally there is a price where players will no longer be interested so if a price shortens from 3.0 to 2.64 for example, you may find a layer who decides the price is now low enough and starts to lay at the new low price. If others agree and join the market to lay then the price will stop and probably reverse. If however there are still people willing to back the horse at 2.64 then it will continue to shorten. So it is back to supply and demand to determine the correct price as perceived by the market where the market is made up of backers and layers with the dominant side winning the battle but not necessarily winning the war i.e. they may not end up with the result they expected.
I hope that helps
JG
The market is all about supply and demand so the price will move up and down accordingly.
Just because a horse has the highest probability of winning based on the price, does not mean it will win or that it will be shortened in price. As the money flows into the market the horse that attracts the money will shorten and as Betfair is a closed loop market something else generally lengthens in price. So in your example, I would venture the original favourite was not fancied at 3.8 and as there was no demand for the price it simply started to drift out. This drift will continue as others join the trend and start to force the price bigger and bigger.
At the same time I would also venture another horse was being supported so as one came down the other went up (closed loop again) to balance the market.
This can happen if the horse misbehaves in the preliminaries, sweats up badly, looks in poor condition. It can happen if there is a "word" for a horse and many players will simply try and follow the trend.
Naturally there is a price where players will no longer be interested so if a price shortens from 3.0 to 2.64 for example, you may find a layer who decides the price is now low enough and starts to lay at the new low price. If others agree and join the market to lay then the price will stop and probably reverse. If however there are still people willing to back the horse at 2.64 then it will continue to shorten. So it is back to supply and demand to determine the correct price as perceived by the market where the market is made up of backers and layers with the dominant side winning the battle but not necessarily winning the war i.e. they may not end up with the result they expected.
I hope that helps
JG
Hello JollyGreen,
thank you very much for your explanation. I know that the market's balance should match. An unequal balance is not that good.
To be more precise, my question is how can I see, feel, smell or touch a market which is moving in the wrong direction before I loose my money.
I have a screenshot from thor afternoon attached, it was taken about 1 Mionute after in play. You see, first it came down as it was supposed to. But then it moved. Not only a few ticks, there was a turnaround-scheme.
What do the experts do?
- quit the bets (when? how many ticks or percents?)
- stay on and hope that in play it will turn again bevause we used to bet on the favourite?
Kind regards again from Germany
Chris
... who has now 150€ less than five hours ago...
thank you very much for your explanation. I know that the market's balance should match. An unequal balance is not that good.
To be more precise, my question is how can I see, feel, smell or touch a market which is moving in the wrong direction before I loose my money.
I have a screenshot from thor afternoon attached, it was taken about 1 Mionute after in play. You see, first it came down as it was supposed to. But then it moved. Not only a few ticks, there was a turnaround-scheme.
What do the experts do?
- quit the bets (when? how many ticks or percents?)
- stay on and hope that in play it will turn again bevause we used to bet on the favourite?
Kind regards again from Germany
Chris
... who has now 150€ less than five hours ago...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I'll start with the most important bit - NEVER let it turn in play and hope it goes your way! That is the quickest way to the poor house!What do the experts do?
- quit the bets (when? how many ticks or percent?)
- stay on and hope that in play it will turn again because we used to bet on the favourite?
When you quit and close the bet for a loss will depend on your own pain threshold. What I mean is some people will cut out instantly, some will allow 2 ticks, some 3 ticks etc etc. When you are starting out I would suggest you close out immediately if you are wrong and then reassess the market. Conversely you must ensure that when you get it correct you allow the profits to build. Unfortunately most new traders will hang onto a loss almost to oblivion but close out for a tiny profit when they get it correct. You have to reverse this behaviour in order to succeed.
As you improve you will be able to realise how correct your entry point was and if you can hold your position slightly longer. In this game you must realise that as soon as your order is matched there will be a liability and then it is a matter of you controlling that liability. Some people see it move 1-2 ticks against them and close out for a loss only for it to move the way they expected! I am not advocating holding on forever, I am saying keep practising and as you gain experience you will learn more about when to quit and when to hold. It's not easy but it can be done. Also, too many people want to get into the market right at the top/bottom and then have it move their way for instant profit. If you think like that then you are doomed! Yes, this can happen but not often enough so you must keep probing the markets to learn when/where to enter.
I hope that helps
JG
Hello JollyGreen,
thanks again für helping me. And in fact, you mentioned some behaviour which I pointed out when analyzing what I've done today, too.
Lesson learned: Never go in play with a bad balance.
I'll have to keep on practicing and gain experience, this seehms to be almost everything in order to become a successful trader.
Thanks again!
Chris
thanks again für helping me. And in fact, you mentioned some behaviour which I pointed out when analyzing what I've done today, too.
Lesson learned: Never go in play with a bad balance.
I'll have to keep on practicing and gain experience, this seehms to be almost everything in order to become a successful trader.
Thanks again!
Chris