not sure i've got the balls to do it but am getting increasingly tempted.
Mental Bomber
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
that ran a stinker but the price stayed down until the off.
i remember that from previous bombing raids - the ones earlier on in the day tend to get followed but then resistance builds as people realise they are fake gambles.
i remember that from previous bombing raids - the ones earlier on in the day tend to get followed but then resistance builds as people realise they are fake gambles.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I have stopped on Betfair but I have to say over the years the bomber earned me an absolute fortune. I found I had to adapt my trading when he was around depending on what he did.
I found that the vast majority of the time he was very predictable in what he did. If he showed up I would sit that race out and just sit and watch.
If he removed the money and then when he re-entered he did so at a higher price a few ticks away form the action I would be wary if it was actually him. But if he came back in in the process taking out some of the market I would be confident it was him as he showed he wanted his money on.
So the next race I would make a judgement call as to what the horse had been doing, if it had been coming in I would be more inclined to get on but if it had been drifting you would be daft to get on ahead of him showing up as by the time he does show up the price could have drifted out further and his entry may not take it back to where I entered. So make a call on it from that point.
When he does enter see how the market reacts, does it run scared and push in further but then spring back out when he removes or does it stay at where it got pushed to, or does it continue to shorten. A generalisation but the markets tend to react in one way each day or gradually change. As has been said they may over the course of the day push back against him.
Also I try to workout how long he leaves it before re-entering, that way you could try to judge when he would come back and thus give you the greatest gain, ofcourse he may not return. It is a judgement but over a long enough period of him doing it I found the odd losses were massively outweighed by the much bigger gains I got. But this was a judgement that came with experience and knowing when it was worth risking it or not.
You need to judge how much he has left and how quickly it may get taken. Don't be sat there waiting to exit but not with your exit ready.
I would use to try to work out how much of the market he would take out if he were to use up all of his stake and then place my exit order into the market, if it was a big move I would have part of my hedge included as well. I wouldn't then just sit and wait though, I would have my order in and dragged up to a much higher price but not released. This meant that if things went to crap I didn't have to move my mouse I just released my mouse button and I exited using all the money left in the market. Yes you could sometimes be exiting at worse prices than had you not bailed but again this was a judgement call that I made each time he showed up. More often than not I would exit this way and over the years it saved me huge amounts. I was out before others had leap frogged each other trying to exit.
Hope some of that helps, but imo when the bomber is about you should be looking to make huge profits. They were some of my best ever days on Betfair and I know the same is true for others.
Embrace the bomber and what he does to the markets - it was always the best way to get my heart beating a little faster
Hope that lot helps some, there is a lot more to trading him effectively but those are some of the simple pointers.
I found that the vast majority of the time he was very predictable in what he did. If he showed up I would sit that race out and just sit and watch.
If he removed the money and then when he re-entered he did so at a higher price a few ticks away form the action I would be wary if it was actually him. But if he came back in in the process taking out some of the market I would be confident it was him as he showed he wanted his money on.
So the next race I would make a judgement call as to what the horse had been doing, if it had been coming in I would be more inclined to get on but if it had been drifting you would be daft to get on ahead of him showing up as by the time he does show up the price could have drifted out further and his entry may not take it back to where I entered. So make a call on it from that point.
When he does enter see how the market reacts, does it run scared and push in further but then spring back out when he removes or does it stay at where it got pushed to, or does it continue to shorten. A generalisation but the markets tend to react in one way each day or gradually change. As has been said they may over the course of the day push back against him.
Also I try to workout how long he leaves it before re-entering, that way you could try to judge when he would come back and thus give you the greatest gain, ofcourse he may not return. It is a judgement but over a long enough period of him doing it I found the odd losses were massively outweighed by the much bigger gains I got. But this was a judgement that came with experience and knowing when it was worth risking it or not.
You need to judge how much he has left and how quickly it may get taken. Don't be sat there waiting to exit but not with your exit ready.
I would use to try to work out how much of the market he would take out if he were to use up all of his stake and then place my exit order into the market, if it was a big move I would have part of my hedge included as well. I wouldn't then just sit and wait though, I would have my order in and dragged up to a much higher price but not released. This meant that if things went to crap I didn't have to move my mouse I just released my mouse button and I exited using all the money left in the market. Yes you could sometimes be exiting at worse prices than had you not bailed but again this was a judgement call that I made each time he showed up. More often than not I would exit this way and over the years it saved me huge amounts. I was out before others had leap frogged each other trying to exit.
Hope some of that helps, but imo when the bomber is about you should be looking to make huge profits. They were some of my best ever days on Betfair and I know the same is true for others.
Embrace the bomber and what he does to the markets - it was always the best way to get my heart beating a little faster
Hope that lot helps some, there is a lot more to trading him effectively but those are some of the simple pointers.
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
Hi Andy, I have 2 questions if possible...
1) Why are you not on betfair?
2) If the bomber is most likely to bomb twice, 3 times why does he find so much opposition between price A and lower price B...
I saw the Bomber entrying the price with 23K at 4.6 then rentrying with what's left 18K-19K at 4.0
Would not be easier to place a back bet at 4.5 and wait the second entry and close at 4.0 insted of opposing him between 4.5 to 4.1
He/She obviously wanted to get matched so why not let him/her take the money available at the lower price leaving blanket or with very little on between 4.5 to 4.0
1) Why are you not on betfair?
2) If the bomber is most likely to bomb twice, 3 times why does he find so much opposition between price A and lower price B...
I saw the Bomber entrying the price with 23K at 4.6 then rentrying with what's left 18K-19K at 4.0
Would not be easier to place a back bet at 4.5 and wait the second entry and close at 4.0 insted of opposing him between 4.5 to 4.1
He/She obviously wanted to get matched so why not let him/her take the money available at the lower price leaving blanket or with very little on between 4.5 to 4.0
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
1) Why are you not on betfair?
I am unwilling to pay Betfair 60% of what I made each week. Yes I could still have made a decent amount of money but in the long term it was not worth the effort so I stopped and am now teaching myself financial trading. I know others have accepted the 60% but with the amounts I was making it just wasn't imo worth it. Had I been making for example £1,000,000 a year I would have carried on.
2) If the bomber is most likely to bomb twice, 3 times why does he find so much opposition between price A and lower price B...
It can depend on what is happening in each market, but if I thought that despite the resistance he would take it down lower I would have jumped on at 4.5 and looked to get out lower but would be ready to exit if things didn't look like working out. Also bear in mind not everyone is trading in these markets, I know it is easy to forget that from personal experience. So a lot of market participants may not be bothered by him or may not even know he is there. Others may be aware of him but may have reasons for resisting the bomb. Keeping an open mind is important.
Hope that helps.
I am unwilling to pay Betfair 60% of what I made each week. Yes I could still have made a decent amount of money but in the long term it was not worth the effort so I stopped and am now teaching myself financial trading. I know others have accepted the 60% but with the amounts I was making it just wasn't imo worth it. Had I been making for example £1,000,000 a year I would have carried on.
2) If the bomber is most likely to bomb twice, 3 times why does he find so much opposition between price A and lower price B...
It can depend on what is happening in each market, but if I thought that despite the resistance he would take it down lower I would have jumped on at 4.5 and looked to get out lower but would be ready to exit if things didn't look like working out. Also bear in mind not everyone is trading in these markets, I know it is easy to forget that from personal experience. So a lot of market participants may not be bothered by him or may not even know he is there. Others may be aware of him but may have reasons for resisting the bomb. Keeping an open mind is important.
Hope that helps.
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
Thanks for your reply...
If I made 1.000.000 a year it means I have enough money to take betfair to court...I am still amazed how they still get away with that..
I think that as soon as Betfair will have a licenze in Italy there will be plenty of court cases against them..People here are not scared to have their account closed also because they will reopen a new one very quickly under some relatives name....Some bookmakers did not have to pay a penny in lawyers because some gamblers took the state to court for not licinsing certain internatinal bookmakers and won..So I can only imagine when betfair will take some gamblers profit away what they going to do...Here they call lawyers with the speed of light
Regards as the Bomber I prefer him around then the layers...When the bomber is on, it's quite easy to take advantage of him...When some heavy layers are on, the market became hell and hard to trade
If I made 1.000.000 a year it means I have enough money to take betfair to court...I am still amazed how they still get away with that..
I think that as soon as Betfair will have a licenze in Italy there will be plenty of court cases against them..People here are not scared to have their account closed also because they will reopen a new one very quickly under some relatives name....Some bookmakers did not have to pay a penny in lawyers because some gamblers took the state to court for not licinsing certain internatinal bookmakers and won..So I can only imagine when betfair will take some gamblers profit away what they going to do...Here they call lawyers with the speed of light
Regards as the Bomber I prefer him around then the layers...When the bomber is on, it's quite easy to take advantage of him...When some heavy layers are on, the market became hell and hard to trade
Betfair are seemingly very clever at spotting and stopping people using accounts in other people's names. There's not that many people making decent money on betfair so it's not hard to profile how they trade and then spot if it starts happening in someone else's account.giulio2010 wrote:Thanks for your reply...
If I made 1.000.000 a year it means I have enough money to take betfair to court...I am still amazed how they still get away with that..
I think that as soon as Betfair will have a licenze in Italy there will be plenty of court cases against them..People here are not scared to have their account closed also because they will reopen a new one very quickly under some relatives name....Some bookmakers did not have to pay a penny in lawyers because some gamblers took the state to court for not licinsing certain internatinal bookmakers and won..So I can only imagine when betfair will take some gamblers profit away what they going to do...Here they call lawyers with the speed of light
Regards as the Bomber I prefer him around then the layers...When the bomber is on, it's quite easy to take advantage of him...When some heavy layers are on, the market became hell and hard to trade
IMO the only thing anyone can do is either pay the extra or move on to pastures new. For most people moving on makes sense; if you're only making moderate amounts then it's not worth the stress of trading just to give away 60%, and personally if I was a millionaire or even close I wouldnt be sat here staring at a betfair screen day in day out anyway
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
Hi Hgodden,
I can certainly bet that as soon Betfair will make some unfair moves in Italy, people will report it and take them to court..In this case the 60% PC but also for cases like leapordstwon or for some ambiguous rules that made people lose money...
I can certainly bet that as soon Betfair will make some unfair moves in Italy, people will report it and take them to court..In this case the 60% PC but also for cases like leapordstwon or for some ambiguous rules that made people lose money...
I'd say good luck to them Giulio but I don't know how successful they'd be in court? As a bookmaker I think betfair can just close anyone down that they want to?
Maybe it's just years of seeing how they work has made me cynical enough to feel that there is no way to beat them at anything
Maybe it's just years of seeing how they work has made me cynical enough to feel that there is no way to beat them at anything
How it was explained to me by someone in the know is that the P.C is effectively a voluntary payment.
When you first hit the P.C limit
Betfair notify you about it and at that time you either withdraw all your money and stop using them or continue knowing you will be in the p.c bracket from that point on.
The charge is not a legally enforceable debt,
but it doesn't need to be as people pay it in order to keep their account open.
If there was no P.C i guess betfair would just close accounts like the bookies do, nothing you can do about that either
When you first hit the P.C limit
Betfair notify you about it and at that time you either withdraw all your money and stop using them or continue knowing you will be in the p.c bracket from that point on.
The charge is not a legally enforceable debt,
but it doesn't need to be as people pay it in order to keep their account open.
If there was no P.C i guess betfair would just close accounts like the bookies do, nothing you can do about that either
Can't see why they would close accounts down if there was no pc; after all the bookies do it because it's their money they're losing. With Betfair you're taking money off other traders or punters. Betfair continues to make a profit however much you win. It's just their way of making a totally out of proportion amount of money from their most successful customers. It's 15% higher than the top tax rate paid by millionaires (in theory) for goodness' sake. Totally unjustifiable but nothing we can do about it unfortunately.