Temporary Reversal or Trend Change?

[Euler]

It's really easy to over complicate things when trading. You need a simple set up then you need to practice to execute it well. You can't win everyone but as long as you focus on doing simple things very well, with some underlying logic, it's difficult to go wildly wrong.

[superfrank]

the problem with using technical indicators (all lagging by their very nature) for fast moving markets like racing is that, by the time you've identified the entry/exit opportunity, you've missed the boat (assuming the trading is manual).

True, but apart from a crystal ball, what's the alternative?

Jeff

to act unconditionally when your intuition tells you to do so. subconscious probabilities!

[James1st]

Sorry Mugs. I wasn't trying to use technical jargon for namesake, but because that is actually what I use in trading.

As a trader struggling to understand Why and When I should enter or exit a trade was difficult without guessing, and hence I started reading about technical analysis just to give me a starting point to make 'educated' decisions about entry and exits.

Yes, traders have been (and still remain) successful long before technical analysis was introduced in a trading platform. Therefore, I realize (and am only well too aware) that my methods are not very effective.

I probably sounded stupid describing my methods, but from my standpoint how else can a trader learn without trying different things, silly as they may appear.

Hi Switesh,

I wouldn't go around apologising because you are able to and do see beyond the "suck it and see" approach by many traders.

Just to add some balance to the discussion. It is a fact that the majority of traders using Bet Angel and other interfaces do not bother with technical indicators (except for Mugsgame, who swears by the default BA technical indicator viz Wom ).

However not all the action in the pre race markets are conducted by BA traders and looking at the bigger picture, certainly the majority of real traders, do use technical indicators, much like the ones you are experimenting with. Traders who operate on behalf of all the big bookmakers trade within technical frameworks.

A novice trader can do worse than use all the tools available (and I can testify to trying many dozens of technical indicators) in an attempt to understand what the market is doing and why it is doing it. This beats, hands down, someone spending years with a putter on the golf course before discovering that other clubs are available. (Just as an aside, I do remember having attended the BA seminar that Mr Webb uses moving averages, at least to exit a trade)

Take it from me that there isn't a single indicator that is leading and all of them are trailing but that doesn't mean that studying odds patterns within the framework of technical indicators is a waste of time. There is much to learn from pattern analysis and you will eventually conclude that certain things are very predictable.

If your ultimate aim is, and it should be so for all traders, to move towards automated systems then without the use of "triggers" initiated by technical indicators, replicating processes would be impossible.

So Swiitesh, stick with your approach and even though its a longer and lonlier road, you are much less likely to suffer a motorway collision.

James

[steven1976]

Im a bit mixed on the issue of technical indicators. I never use them now on pre horse racing.

I think the technical indicators use to be important but as more and more people are looking and using them and looking for some kind of indication they can be used in the opposite affect. When they were first introduced they may have offered a true picture of resistance, WOM or other indicators but I think as things evolve it changes. So i guess Im saying they are important although I ignore them as I think they could be used against me if I entered a trade based purely on what the graphs are showing.

If I used a big enough bank I would use the indicators as a point to move against the technical resistance points knowing that a lot of people who are relatively new or looking for answers in indicators like switesh could likely enter a trade where a previous resistance occurred.
I must add that I trade very short term so this may sway my thinking as Im not looking at where the price was 2-3 mins earlier.

[hoodie07]

switesh

Thanks for your efforts in giving an insight to your approach. I too, look into the technical aspect of trading and whilst I don't believe that the indicators you have mentioned are all as transferable from the financial world of trading to the betting exchanges, I do believe there is a place for using them on betfair.

I thought I would share a few charts to demonstrate some signals I received from the markets today.