I have returned from my latest medical tests and I must admit to feeling a bit yuk
I have been keeping an eye on Crown Choice because his handicap mark has been falling like a stone. I am not saying this horse is a certainty, I am not stupid enough to say that but if he can recapture any small amount of his old form, he would win this easily. I am sorry to say the emphasis is on IF???
You can never be certain why a horse goes off the boil, perhaps they stop liking the racing, perhaps they get overlooked by better horses in the yard, perhaps they get a niggling injury that holds them back. I don't have the benefit of knowing the real reason so I can only go on what I can measure and what I have seen. What I will add is the new yard are not stupid and they have probably been giving this horse a bit of TLC. He was with a much larger yard before so perhaps he went a bit sour and was overlooked?
Today this horse races off 73 and he's won off 91 on the Polytrack at Kempton and 94 on the turf at Goodwood so he clearly had the ability. The trip today is fine for him and the pace of the race should also suit him fine. He likes to race off the pace with horses to run at, coming late. This is a perfect racing style for Lingfield......I am just slightly worried about the recent new surface laid at Lingifeld. There hasn't been enough racing for me to judge if there is a bias anywhere.
In my book this is a 5.5-6.0 shot all day long so the current 9.0-9.2 is value in my hubmle opinion. I see he has drifted from ~5.20 out to 9.2 but that isn't of concern to me. As I said, I can only go on what I can see and measure so if someone is laying him based on "inside info" then good luck to them, it just means a better price for me.
This horse ran at Wolverhampton on 8/10/12 over an inadequate 6f and watching the race let's say the jockey was looking very busy doing nothing to help the horse. Before the racing police descend on me I am not suggesting cheating..
He was dropped 4lb and then ran over 7f again at Wolverhampton and he was running well at this more suitable distance. Sadly the pace wasn't great that day and it didn't totally suit him. Despite this he was 3rd, running on but not quite getting the gaps. The good thing about that race was Matt Chapman drooling over Chookie Avon and marking it as a horse to watch for next time. His comments meant very few saw Crown Choice's run and that is great for us. As an aside Chookie Avon was just touched off next time out by Cut Across who has now been declared a non-runner in this race.
You can try this as another in running back-to-lay trade as I feel this horse will come into the straight running well so the price should shorten considerably. He is not a certainty but at 9.0 on Betfair he is overpriced.
Good luck if you play, small stakes, enjoy and feel free to comment.
JG
