US Presidential Election 2012

[superfrank]

only one incumbent president has failed to be re-elected in the last 100 years (Jimmy Carter).

could be some good opportunities for backing Obama as the election gets nearer and liquidity improves.

http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=2 ... origin=MRL

[hgodden]

Like they said in Wag the dog, you don't change horses mid stream

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qABA0X6IzxU

[Iron]

Obama will probably win, but he's heavily odds on, so what makes you think he's a value bet?

I imagine that the odds reflect all known information about his chances, and are pretty accurate. I hope I'm wrong, and that Romney is a massive value bet at 2.66, but I suspect we're in for a further term of Obama's tax and spend regime... I'm not sure it's an exaggeration to say that the US election result could determine the fate of the global economy.

Jeff

[Iron]

BTW, the UK general election market is interesting: http://sports.betfair.com/politics/mark ... .101416490

I think the Tories are a good lay for an overall majority at 3.9. Labour have a 12 point lead in the latest opinion polls (see http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/), and it's hard to see the Tories pulling anything out of the bag between now and the election to drastically improve their fortunes...

Jeff

[superfrank]

Obama now 1.25 to back on BF.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see some violent late swings if there are some surprising exit polls.

[CaerMyrddin]

Interesting market, I've been giving it a close look lately. Last poll show a tight election.

[Euler]

This has often been a good market in the past. I'll be keeping a close eye on it.

[PeterLe]

Obama now 1.25 to back on BF.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see some violent late swings if there are some surprising exit polls.

I tend to think that Obama will win but at 1.25 and with only a 2% lead I would have thought that the best way to trade this would be to lay Obama now and then trade out before the final announcement.
At worst I would have though you could only lose 10 - 15 Ticks max and the upside could be 4 or 5 times that?
regards
Peter

[LeTiss]

Politics offer great trading opportunities. I remember the UK GE of 2010, and being blown away by the liquidity on a range of markets. I'll definitely be throwing some money around here

[CaerMyrddin]

Things are really messy and Obama can win even having less votes than Romney. It can also take a long time before an official anouncement as it's likely the losing party will ask for a recount (can I say that? lol)

[Euler]

Obama chart from last election.

081104 - Next president - Obama 21-40-10.png

[CaerMyrddin]

€34M matched so far, great market!

[superfrank]

yeah some real big bets going in.

tiresome watching the TV coverage though.

and what a stupid bl00dy system! they've been campaigning for many months now, both sides have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on radio+TV ads (mostly full of lies/half-truths/scaremongering) and each state also has it's own set of election rules!

[Bet Angel]

Obama into 1.08 already, so I laid a little at that price. Still some way to go.

[superfrank]

Still some way to go.

probably a month!