Spread Betting
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
You are Alistair Darling and I claim my £5!
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
If you never know if a market is trending or not how can you follow a trend? Surely you can only follow a historical trend from what you are saying?Ferru123 wrote:And remember that all trends are historical - you never know at any given moment whether a market is trending.
So should it not be known as 'historical trend following' as opposed to 'trend following'?
If a market has been trending, you enter in the direction of the trend. If the trend continues, you ride it as far as it goes. If it turns around, you get off.andyfuller wrote:If you never know if a market is trending or not how can you follow a trend?
Yes - Trend following is reactive, not predictive.andyfuller wrote:Surely you can only follow a historical trend from what you are saying?
It doesn't really trip off the tongue, but you can call it that if you want!andyfuller wrote:So should it not be known as 'historical trend following' as opposed to 'trend following'?
Jeff
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
When it stops raining I'm off down the bookies to get a bet on Mon Mome for the 2009 Grand National.
From http://interloping.com/2011/11/03/the-m ... -brain-is/:
The market then, is not rigged against your investment success–you’re brain is. Every investor will look for patterns where none exist and blame the wrong people when it doesn’t work out. The same skepticism you show when a software salesperson comes into your office proclaiming to “improve productivity by 15%” will magically disappear when your broker calls. You will be sorely tempted to climb on market bandwagons late, after a huge run, because of a herding instinct perfectly adapted to the Neanderthal era. You will make important investment “sell” decisions based on the arbitrary price at which you bought the stock and you will fall in love with a current holding that is more likely to torpedo your portfolio than recover to book value. Your broker and the 1% are not to blame; they are just making it easy for you to do what your brain already wants you to.
That's why trend following works!
Jeff
The market then, is not rigged against your investment success–you’re brain is. Every investor will look for patterns where none exist and blame the wrong people when it doesn’t work out. The same skepticism you show when a software salesperson comes into your office proclaiming to “improve productivity by 15%” will magically disappear when your broker calls. You will be sorely tempted to climb on market bandwagons late, after a huge run, because of a herding instinct perfectly adapted to the Neanderthal era. You will make important investment “sell” decisions based on the arbitrary price at which you bought the stock and you will fall in love with a current holding that is more likely to torpedo your portfolio than recover to book value. Your broker and the 1% are not to blame; they are just making it easy for you to do what your brain already wants you to.
That's why trend following works!
Jeff
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
free £200...
http://www.cityindex.co.uk/trading-credit-offer-s/
they contacted me to say i could have this offer despite already having an account. i made 3 trades yesterday (2 wins and 1 scratch) and they credited my account as promised. cashback!
http://www.cityindex.co.uk/trading-credit-offer-s/
they contacted me to say i could have this offer despite already having an account. i made 3 trades yesterday (2 wins and 1 scratch) and they credited my account as promised. cashback!
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
got a letter today from WorldSpreads saying that from 16th Jan they are introducing a flat £1 admin charge for each trade on zero spread instruments... "popularity has a consequence"!!!
only a pound, but it does kind of defeat the object of offering zero spreads if there is a charge.
also they are dropping the DAX as a zero spread instrument (which should tell you which stock market is the best to trade!). 'tis my favourite stock market on futures (most volatile of the major indices and lower transaction costs).
on the plus side they are adding the S&P, Vodafone and RBS as zero spread instruments from 2012 (the last 2 are quite interesting additions).
only a pound, but it does kind of defeat the object of offering zero spreads if there is a charge.
also they are dropping the DAX as a zero spread instrument (which should tell you which stock market is the best to trade!). 'tis my favourite stock market on futures (most volatile of the major indices and lower transaction costs).
on the plus side they are adding the S&P, Vodafone and RBS as zero spread instruments from 2012 (the last 2 are quite interesting additions).
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Cheers for the info SuperFrank. It is good to see a firm trying something new, not so good about the charge though.
Can't beat having some competition in the market place!
Sounds like you have been taking advantage of the Zero Spreads - have you had a positive experience of them?
Can't beat having some competition in the market place!
Sounds like you have been taking advantage of the Zero Spreads - have you had a positive experience of them?
well worldspreads is now out of business http://www.financial-spread-betting.com ... ged-fraud/
that's what happens when things appear too good to be true - and zero spreads were definitely suspect! Never trust a broker offering zero spreads; you have to pay one way or another. At the moment Cantor has also embarked on the zero spread bandwagon and I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole
that's what happens when things appear too good to be true - and zero spreads were definitely suspect! Never trust a broker offering zero spreads; you have to pay one way or another. At the moment Cantor has also embarked on the zero spread bandwagon and I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole
I've said this before on other threads, but I often wonder just how safe our money is with BFluckystar wrote:well worldspreads is now out of business http://www.financial-spread-betting.com ... ged-fraud/
If every customer tried to withdraw their balance, I suspect there wouldn't be enough money in the pot to pay everyone out!
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
There isn't. They have it invested I believe. At one of the recent investor conference call there was a question how exposed the money was to Greece and thankfully they said they weren't.
All the money isn't just sitting in a slush fund ready for withdrawal, just as banks don't keep all our money sat in a big vault.
The money is however ring fenced. I would though be more worried not about Betfair but the banks etc. Remember all the local authorities that were in trouble when the Iceland banks went bust!
All the money isn't just sitting in a slush fund ready for withdrawal, just as banks don't keep all our money sat in a big vault.
The money is however ring fenced. I would though be more worried not about Betfair but the banks etc. Remember all the local authorities that were in trouble when the Iceland banks went bust!
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
you just need to ensure that the companies you have funds deposited with are covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS), or US equivalent.
when WorldSpreads went bust I had £10k in there but got it all back via the FSCS.
when WorldSpreads went bust I had £10k in there but got it all back via the FSCS.