I've been trying a 'lay the draw'-system for quite a while now (3 months). It goes absolutely great. Nothing to complain. But last weekend I encountered some problems.
I lay the draw 1 minute before kick-off at the best price. In 3 out of 4 matches I made 2.5% profit (% of lay stake, not liability) within 2 minutes of the game just because of the fact that the price for back the draw went up instead of down. That wasn't what I had in mind. I just want to trade out when a goal is scored.
My question:
1) Is it possible that certain 'bots' put a lot of money in the market at higher odds just to move-out bets like the ones I made?
2) If so; is this a bad thing? I still make profit, but not because of the fact that there has been scored.
Of course I'm aware how to get rid of this problem by tuning some automation-rules, but the question is if it's smart to tune it.
Greening up to soon?
Is the initial price rise on the draw becuase many bots are programmed to lay the draw just as the market is in play?
Maybe they work that way because you can't "keep" football bets as the market goes in-play like you can on horse racing (that was my understanding a little while ago, but I have not kept up-to-date with such things).
Anyway, I would say that profiting from this is not a good thing for you. You want to be executing your plan as you designed it - winning by luck is no guarantee for the long term.
Of course, however, now that you have noticed this anomaly you may want to design a method to profit from it?
Maybe they work that way because you can't "keep" football bets as the market goes in-play like you can on horse racing (that was my understanding a little while ago, but I have not kept up-to-date with such things).
Anyway, I would say that profiting from this is not a good thing for you. You want to be executing your plan as you designed it - winning by luck is no guarantee for the long term.
Of course, however, now that you have noticed this anomaly you may want to design a method to profit from it?
Thanks for the reply, but in my understanding it is possible to keep bets in play for soccer. You could automate that part. So it's not a logic move by the 'bot program'. I lay the draw before kick-off and green up after goal (very simplistic summary 
).
I don't think I can profit from this anomaly. Why? Because I just noticed it in 3 out of a total of 87 trades/bets.
All in all I agree to fine tune my original plan. It should trade when a goal comes, not earlier. Two possibilities arise:
1) Only trigger the 'green up rule' after 1 minute in play. That gives the odds time to drop again to normal level.
2) Increase the minimum condition for 'green all profit'.
In my opinion the first should do the trick without any (more) risk. If a goal is scored in first minute the automation will green up after 3 minutes. Or do I miss something? Option one is my favorite.
The second has some degree of risk. If I set it too high the rule may not trigger. If it's too low we have the same problem as described in original post. Of course I have a possible idea of how high odds will be after a goal, and thus insight in how to set the minimum profit condition. But in most cases the Soccer Mystic signal-bars are 4 out of 5. That means some level of inaccuracy and thus risk for the whole trade.
).I don't think I can profit from this anomaly. Why? Because I just noticed it in 3 out of a total of 87 trades/bets.
All in all I agree to fine tune my original plan. It should trade when a goal comes, not earlier. Two possibilities arise:
1) Only trigger the 'green up rule' after 1 minute in play. That gives the odds time to drop again to normal level.
2) Increase the minimum condition for 'green all profit'.
In my opinion the first should do the trick without any (more) risk. If a goal is scored in first minute the automation will green up after 3 minutes. Or do I miss something? Option one is my favorite.
The second has some degree of risk. If I set it too high the rule may not trigger. If it's too low we have the same problem as described in original post. Of course I have a possible idea of how high odds will be after a goal, and thus insight in how to set the minimum profit condition. But in most cases the Soccer Mystic signal-bars are 4 out of 5. That means some level of inaccuracy and thus risk for the whole trade.
Yeah Draw odds can often go up as well as down in the first few mins of a game, usually it's just the odds Adjusting to how the game has started .
As for the LAYING the draw Strategy,
well it doesn’t really work too well nowadays,
way to many people are doing it.
If you take a note of the lay 0-0 odds At the start of each game you will find that in the long run you would prob be better off doing that from my experience.
But it’s still a losing strategy of cause, unless you’re very selective that is.
As for the LAYING the draw Strategy,
well it doesn’t really work too well nowadays,
way to many people are doing it.
If you take a note of the lay 0-0 odds At the start of each game you will find that in the long run you would prob be better off doing that from my experience.
But it’s still a losing strategy of cause, unless you’re very selective that is.
@freddy: I still have believe that my strategy is profitable
As for one thing; i'm very selective in matches. Matches will only be selected if they meet a bunch of 'keyfactors'. So far only 1 match out of 87 selected (resulting in 0-0) went wrong. Maybe after 1000 matches I'll think otherwise but not now
As for one thing; i'm very selective in matches. Matches will only be selected if they meet a bunch of 'keyfactors'. So far only 1 match out of 87 selected (resulting in 0-0) went wrong. Maybe after 1000 matches I'll think otherwise but not now
Yes sure It will be profitable if you are good at picking the correct games 
,
but then so would laying 0-0
i would advice you to record the lay 0-0 odds and see how much you would have made doing things that way round.
like allot of people before me i tried this out years ago when i first started on betfair and did make a small profit but was surprised to see laying 0-0 was actually more profitable and allot less hassle.
For the record i dont do either now as i have found better ways so things may have changed but i doubt it.
good luck
,but then so would laying 0-0
i would advice you to record the lay 0-0 odds and see how much you would have made doing things that way round.
like allot of people before me i tried this out years ago when i first started on betfair and did make a small profit but was surprised to see laying 0-0 was actually more profitable and allot less hassle.
For the record i dont do either now as i have found better ways so things may have changed but i doubt it.
good luck
Last edited by freddy on Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Good idea
what you will find is that on the games where the favorite scores first or when there is a late goal you will make more than on the lay 0-0.
but when the underdog scores first you will make less or even have to take a small loss.
also problems exist when there are two quick fire goals and you carn't exit the trade in time.
and of cause when betfair forget to turn in-play or
un-suspend or other technical problems.
all in all it tips the balance toward laying 0-0 then if a goal is scored you win regardless Simples .
what you will find is that on the games where the favorite scores first or when there is a late goal you will make more than on the lay 0-0.
but when the underdog scores first you will make less or even have to take a small loss.
also problems exist when there are two quick fire goals and you carn't exit the trade in time.
and of cause when betfair forget to turn in-play or
un-suspend or other technical problems.
all in all it tips the balance toward laying 0-0 then if a goal is scored you win regardless Simples
.Okay. Both matches were profitable this evening. 9% Profit compared to lay-stake.
As far as I can see the lay 0-0 would be better. I don't need to back the 0-0 after the goal. Thus I can see it as a normal bet then? To get the same profit my liability would be way lower.
So it would be better then?
In that case I just need BetAngel to close the trade in case of a 0-0 after x-minutes?
As far as I can see the lay 0-0 would be better. I don't need to back the 0-0 after the goal. Thus I can see it as a normal bet then? To get the same profit my liability would be way lower.
So it would be better then?
In that case I just need BetAngel to close the trade in case of a 0-0 after x-minutes?