Total Traded Volume On Each Selection In A Race

[GMBing]

Hi everyone – Just an opened ended question that I throw into the forum to see if any more experience traders and market analysis experts can help me make sense of.

My understanding is that the total matched volume for each selection in a race reflects the sum of the bet and liability. i.e a bet of £2 at say 10.5 would add £21 to this figure and likewise a bet of £2 at 100 would add £200 to this figure.

Now in the days before exchanges and indeed to this day in the betting ring of a race course if all this data was compiled it would return a relatively even figure for each selection regardless of its price with of course industry margin build in.

So I’ve always been curious as to why in a 102% - 98% market the favourite total matched volume should be so high relative to outsiders and quite often a mid-market selection can have the second highest value. If true market forces were being applied these values should be very similar for all selections regardless of price.

So my logic would conclude the a high total matched volume could on one hand represent a weak selection as money is matched at bigger prices but of course could also represent a strong selection as greater volumes of money is matched at shorter prices. Which brings me full circle as to why these values are not much more equal regardless of price.

Now as a relatively novice trader but with strong VBA and excel knowledge I develop must of my trading strategies using automated recording Marcos and while I can’t grasp how this value varies so widely for each section I wonder if we monitor the value as a % of the total matched in event would a rising or falling value be a reliable indicator of support or otherwise for a selection.

Any comments or observations welcome
Regard
G

[JollyGreen]

On Betfair it doesn't work like that unless they have changed it. They simply show the money traded on a selection so £10 is £5 back and £5 lay irrespective of price. Betdaq display it the way you described.

The high volume on the favourite is normal and I don't think it has changed over the years to any great amount.

[Photon]

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=4762

This post was similar in nature

[GMBing]

So I am to assume that the total traded is not quite what it says but the total bets regardless of liabily.

Very strange in which case it is pretty much a totally meaningless figure then

Thanks for you reply

G

[GMBing]

So I am to assume that the total TRADED volume is not quite that but the total bets plsced regardless of liability which thus makes it a meaningless indicator

Thanks for your reply

G

[gazuty]

GMbing why would you find that meaningless?

I find it very useful and would find your suggested method meaningless.

But then stats mean different things to different people.

[GMBing]

I suppose that if you assume every selection is base at even money as earlier reply aserted then perhap a key indicator can be drawn by basic arithnatic. Just strikes me that total matched should be sum of two sides of a trade

Must ponder

[gazuty]

Disagree (from my perspective). I'm more interested into total volume matched and what % of the market I make up across the field vs the total volume matched.

There is always more than one way to view stats.

[GMBing]

To make a more open ended reply it comes down to 1 of 3 possibilities

Does the total traded volume equal sum of bets and liability - Clearly not

Does it equal half of all bets placed on that selection ( as if all selections are even money - Possibly

Or perhaps is there another process to reaching this value.

I am more curious than even

Regards
G

[GMBing]

Disagree (from my perspective). I'm more interested into total volume matched and what % of the market I make up across the field vs the total volume matched.

There is always more than one way to view stats.

Then in one way you agree with me

Regards
G

[GMBing]

Or perhaps to me more accurate - once we find exact clearification of the exact measure of this value then we are likely to reach same conclusion to its importance in reading markets

[JollyGreen]

On Betfair it's a very simple measurement. For every pound, euro or dollar backed there has to be the same amount laid. That is how the exchange functions and therefore it is better IMHO to show the traded volume using that method. All you need do is halve the amount displayed and know 50% was Backed and 50% laid.

As Gazuty said it depends on how you interpret the figures but here's a clue to help you.

The favourite always attracts more money than it's implied probability suggests. This is normal in betting as punters (poor ones) tend to back the favourite.

If there are two closely priced favourites you generally find that even then one attracts more money. If however they are close and the smaller volume increases the original favourite usually starts to drift.

On horses other than the favourites whose implied probability is >10% and also with volume greater than the implied probability these horses are attracting money and invariably shortening.

[gazuty]

Could not have said it better myself big JG.

[GMBing]

Some very useful information and advice for which I thank you . Is always easier to make judgement on data and trends when you understand how the figures are derived.

Many thanks
G