The favourite is Tea for Three ridden by AP McCoy so that has already seen the price drop below its correct level....IMHO. If I was trying to compile a book for this race I would have this horse at 7.0 (6/1) before I would consider it to be value. So to me it is a definite lay at the current 4.40 on offer
His form suggests the ground shouldn't be a problem as he's won on heavy but this is on the heavier side of heavy and that has to be a concern. He won over 3m at this course on heavy ground and he did it well. He won over 4m at Cheltenham but that was on good ground. I was in discussion with a punter about this and he pointed at the 4m win as a guide for him staying the 3m5f today. I am not saying he won't stay but 4m on good ground is no guide to staying 3m5f110y on DESPERATE ground and that doubt alone should tell punters that 4.40 is too low. So I would say that if you lay this horse at ~4.40 pre-race there should be a chance to trade out for a profit. At the end of this post I will explain my technique and reasoning behind what I do.Michel le Bon is the current 2nd fav and this price is also pretty ludicrous
This horse has never won at the trip or on heavy ground!!! He is American bred and his pedigree would suggest this is beyond him. Again, I am not saying he cannot win, I am saying the price of 8.80 (at time of writing) is simply too low. You cannot bet on "if and maybe" so if I was looking for a winner this one would have a line put straight through him! It's already drifted to 10.0 but do not be surprised if it doesn't get some support back into single figures just before the off.Viking Blond is currently at 11.0 and I would have it at 21.0 on my book. This horse is now rated 134 a mark from which he has never won. So once again you have to rely on “maybe” which is no good to any serious punter. In this race last year he had a wobbly before the start, couldn’t get to the front and so he spat the dummy. He was eventually pulled up and was the 6/1 fav for the race. He did win a 3m hurdle on heavy at this course but the time was so slow they were thinking of sending out a search party! Yes I suppose he can win but you have to take a great leap of faith if you pay money to find out!
Universal Soldier is a strange one to decipher. The stable were in pretty good form but I have concerns about this one handling the ground and staying the trip. He pulled up behind Tea for Three in heavy ground at Chepstow and has finished behind that horse at Cheltenham. You would say that on straight form lines this horse has to finish behind Tea for Three. The only thing that would make you think twice before putting a line through him is the fact he wears blinkers for the first time today. Now that is still a leap of faith but the old adage is to catch a horse the first time he wears headgear. I’d still put a line through him though!!
You would say that the favourite looks to have a bigger chance based in the weaknesses of the next 3 in the market and I suppose that’s correct. However, the price of the favourite is too low to make him a betting proposition and 6/1 is the lowest I would take if forced to bet.
Some horses of interest are
Giles Cross It is a real shame the Victor Dartnall yard had a virus and was forced to close. This horse handles the ground, stays longer than the mother in law and jumps for fun. You have to take it on trust that he is 100% ready for this race – if he is then he seems booked to place at the very least and go close to winning. Once again it is a leap of faith but this is an honest horse and I would like to see him win it.
Master Overseer On official ratings you would say this horse is well handicapped as he’s due to go up in the weights. He will handle the ground and he stays longer than two mother in laws!! I would not expect to see this one making the pace but when others are crying enough he will just be getting going.
Monbeg Dude I backed this horse in running at huge odds when he won at Cheltenham. He will handle the ground and trip BUT he can be sketchy at his fences and this has cost him in the past. Today he has one of the best hold-up jockeys around so hopefully he can get him settled and jumping in a nice rhythm. Once again do not expect this one to be sighted until the latter stages of the race. If he does settle into a good rhythm he should come with a slow steady run at the end.
Soll This is an unexposed horse but perhaps he’s had issues having had just 7 runs! He was close to Tea for Three in the Hennessey at Newbury. He’s had a break now so if he’s come out of it well then a decent run can be expected. He was brought down at Cheltenham when travelling okay so he could still be on a fair mark. He will handle the ground and the trip doesn’t seem beyond him so a small improvement could see him go close. I have him at 12/1 in my book so the drift to 19.0 is welcome on Betfair. You have to take a small chance that he will or has improved but if he has then he’s not far off Tea for Three but he’s FOUR times the price!!!
If I lay to back, I only use a stake I am willing to lose in full. I place my lay order then when it’s matched I watch the race and the prices in running. I then place a back bet which I have calculated using the profit calculator. It stays in the market right to the end of the race. If the horse runs like a dream and wins the race then I was wrong and my money is gone. However, if the race becomes competitive, especially at the finish there is a strong possibility the price will shoot out quickly and my back order will be matched. The horse may still go on to win but I will have a profit. If you try this manually it is very hard to hit that moving price.
Remember, small stakes and enjoy the race!
