Newbie question about automation - Variable volume bets

[GeraltRivia]

Hi guys,

Quiet reader, first time poster here . I bought the one month trial package of Betangel almost 4 weeks ago, which was not really smart with all the family stuff during holidays. Now I just have a few days to determine if this is the right package for me . I am "already" reading the manual and watching the video's, but perhaps someone can help me in the right direction with my main problem.

I want to automate the following sequence but I keep failing.

Let's assume the following scenario. Market is not in-play and there are only 2 outcomes, one of the two teams wins (no draw). The last traded price on the favorite was 1.40, the current back price is 1.40, the lay is 1.41. I don't have any positions in the market yet.

Now I put in an order to lay the fav @ 1.38 for 1000e. My order is the first one at that price in the order book (and therefore will be traded first). My liability is of course 380e.

I expect prices to drop around 1.38. The moment the price reaches that level, a part (or even the whole) of my lay order will be traded (as my order was first in line) and I want to automate Betangel to put in a back order 1-2 ticks higher. The back bet has to be the same volume as the amount traded at 1.38, with a maximum of 1000e.

Thanks if you made it that far reading Now here comes the real problem. How do I let Betangel "know", that the back bet has to be exactly the amount that has been traded at 1.38 (with the 1000e as maximum)? I don't want a 2 euro bet that just hits 1.38 to cause a chain reaction of back bets, leaving me with exact the reverse I wanted to do. If 100e gets matched at 1.38, I want a back of 100e at 1.39 etc.

Betangel keeps track of the volume at each price, so in theory the formula should be simple: If price reaches X or lower, place back bet at X+1 tick using the total traded volume at price X or lower, with the maximum back bet equal to the my max liability.

Yet I fail to make this work in the Betguardian Automation section. My current automate setup is this:

Just 1 rule:

Conditions: Rule type: Place back bet, triggers starts 23 hours before event (Btw, is it possible to make 2-3 days triggers?), Repeat trigger 10 times, each 100 seconds.

Parameters:
Place at Fixed price: Odds: 1.39
Stake: Fixed amount - 100e (this should be a variable amount – but how to change this?)

Global settings: none?

Conditions: Type: Fixed odds, Last traded price is less than 1.39.

I tried using volume as a condition, but I can choose only the total volume of the selection or the market, instead of the volume traded at a certain price. I just can't find a way to “tell” Betangel to place a back bet only for the amount that has been traded from my first order.

Sorry for my bad English, I really would appreciate if someone could point me in the right direction. Can this be done in Betangel, should I try to remember my Excel skills or is simply not possible?

Greetings,

Geralt.

[gazuty]

Batch it in.

[GeraltRivia]

Batch it in.

Put the initial lay order in batches, or the sell order?

[gazuty]

If it was me I'd put in multiple lays with batched offsets against them for yr 1 tick game.

Of course I'd never run this type of strategy itself. My general guide for any trader is to look for limited (if any) downsides with large upsides. Don't implement a strategy of picking up pennies in front of the steam roller. The steam roller is slow but it doesn't stop. You trip, get distracted by your wife exiting the shower, sneeze, the steam roller continues.

On timing, you can make it run 24/7. Choose rule trigger times/ fixed date and time. Start it at 00:00:01 and end it at 23:59:59. Ok you are 2 seconds short of the 24/7, but you get the drift.

[GeraltRivia]

Thanks for your reply Gazuty, I will try that.

Btw, the markets I am aiming for have a very limited downside, and I want to use to the variable volumes to let a part of my bet ride, just like your advice - the steamroller . And with the low odds, 1-2 ticks are percentage wise a pretty big change.

[gazuty]

The Steamroller.

You are attempting to make 6.65 (7 * 0.95) taking a 380 risk, assuming you are not going to red out at some point on the downside. (1000 * 1.39 / 1.38 - 1000).

So 6.65 * x > 380 * (1-x) for your strategy to be successful.

You need to successful more than 98.28% of the time for this to be e(x) positive.

Have a read of this article about picking up pennies in front the steamroller - http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

[THENUTS]

gazuty,

facinating article on Taleb. i'd love to follow his low probability only strategy but a) i'd probaly go broke laying everything at 1.01 waiting for a run to hit and b) losing 98 or so out of a hundred would take some resolve of character that i dont have.

for me its about finding the value in the incorrect pricng of everyone following the high probability strategy

Great article though

[GeraltRivia]

You are attempting to make 6.65 (7 * 0.95) taking a 380 risk, assuming you are not going to red out at some point on the downside. (1000 * 1.39 / 1.38 - 1000).

So 6.65 * x > 380 * (1-x) for your strategy to be successful.

You need to successful more than 98.28% of the time for this to be e(x) positive.

Thanks, but the 1.38 was just an example, the markets I am aiming for are more around 1.05-1.10.

Let's say I lay 1000 at 1.07, my liability is 70.

One tick is (1000 * 1.08 / 1.07 - 1000), earning 9,30*0,95=8,88.

So according to your formula:

8.88 * x > 70 * (1-x), I would still have to be right about 91% of the time to make a profit?

But what if it's impossible for this market to get below 1.05, how does that affect my success %?

Thanks for the interesting link also.

[GeraltRivia]

Now having read the article, I wonder if it makes any sense to fully automate such markets.

Only by human observation one can identify an event that sends the price of the favorite downwards.

My system would trade just one tick higher, even if that exceptional event is happening. Instead I could pick up dozens of ticks by waiting a couple of seconds and judging the situation correctly.