Has anyone ever done any studies into whether long term you're better off greening up as opposed to having an 'all or nothing' position on the horse you're trading?
Jeff
Greening up
I always green up, I always red up
It's important to separate trading from gambling, and in my early days I often left full green amounts. However, I got frustrated after my hard work ended up with nothing when the selection lost, and this just put me in the wrong frame of mind for future trades. Also, it's a dangerous game psychologically because it leads to a tendency to leave full reds on bad trades, and this tactic will eventually rip your underpants off.
It's important to separate trading from gambling, and in my early days I often left full green amounts. However, I got frustrated after my hard work ended up with nothing when the selection lost, and this just put me in the wrong frame of mind for future trades. Also, it's a dangerous game psychologically because it leads to a tendency to leave full reds on bad trades, and this tactic will eventually rip your underpants off.
As Le Tiss says not greening up is basically gambling albeit with a better downside in that you won't lose if he horse fails to win (vice versa for a red though)
Nothing wrong with that tactic if you feel you have sufficient knowledge about the race in question but it is gambling.
Nothing wrong with that tactic if you feel you have sufficient knowledge about the race in question but it is gambling.
Well Jollygreen or mugsgame probably disagree. They can speak for themselves but in other forums have said they will ride a green/ red imbalance if they have backed or laid "for value".
For me I always green or red up.
It's horses for courses.
For me I always green or red up.
It's horses for courses.
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Personally, I don't mind to have an unhedged position if I considerer it 'valuable', wether by having some more money on a value back or by using part of the green to lay a selection. I'm aware most won't agree with this and I can't sustain my position on a fact based argument, but some of my biggest greens came this way.
In the end it's all up to 'value' so if you are only doing the 'number's game' you should not do this (as I don't on most of the markets) but if you are taking an informed position, I don't see why not.
As an example I remember very clearly, last season there was a playing away favourite that conceded the first goal but then was really going for it. I backed them at a 'sensible' price and after some time they had a penalty kick with the defender from the other side being sent off. I then laied them with the stake I had backed them with and only fully greened out at 1-2, but ultimately I was making a value call.
In the end it's all up to 'value' so if you are only doing the 'number's game' you should not do this (as I don't on most of the markets) but if you are taking an informed position, I don't see why not.
As an example I remember very clearly, last season there was a playing away favourite that conceded the first goal but then was really going for it. I backed them at a 'sensible' price and after some time they had a penalty kick with the defender from the other side being sent off. I then laied them with the stake I had backed them with and only fully greened out at 1-2, but ultimately I was making a value call.
Over the very, very long term it makes no difference. But that only evens out of 10,000's of events. But rather than being an advantage, I position it as being actually no advantage to letting it run.
If you hedge all profits and losses then you get a nice smooth equity curve will will allow you to grow your bank quickly and efficiently. So I'll always green / red up where appropriate. If you don't hedge you are making a judgement on value, which is fair enough. Some sports and strategies do lend themselves to not greenning immediately, but you would still hedge at some point.
But you definately can't mix gambling and trading. You are either gambling or trading and if you gamble then the commission paid on that open ended gamble will dwarf a trading strategy.
If you hedge all profits and losses then you get a nice smooth equity curve will will allow you to grow your bank quickly and efficiently. So I'll always green / red up where appropriate. If you don't hedge you are making a judgement on value, which is fair enough. Some sports and strategies do lend themselves to not greenning immediately, but you would still hedge at some point.
But you definately can't mix gambling and trading. You are either gambling or trading and if you gamble then the commission paid on that open ended gamble will dwarf a trading strategy.
I've think that most successful Traders could make gambling pay just by using their techniques and knowledge of the markets .
but the real question is why would they want to ?
It's a massive roller coaster even for the best.
One of my friends used to use scalping to back/lay under s.p but he quickly realised that althoe he was pretty much guaranteed to make a profit long term their wasn't really much point in having losing weeks and months when he could just green / red up and hardly have a losing day
.
but the real question is why would they want to ?
It's a massive roller coaster even for the best.
One of my friends used to use scalping to back/lay under s.p but he quickly realised that althoe he was pretty much guaranteed to make a profit long term their wasn't really much point in having losing weeks and months when he could just green / red up and hardly have a losing day
.Always gren or red up thats one of the main reasons i invested in the software for Trading 100% win win when you make the positionfreddy wrote:I've think that most successful Traders could make gambling pay just by using their techniques and knowledge of the markets .
but the real question is why would they want to ?
It's a massive roller coaster even for the best.
One of my friends used to use scalping to back/lay under s.p but he quickly realised that althoe he was pretty much guaranteed to make a profit long term their wasn't really much point in having losing weeks and months when he could just green / red up and hardly have a losing day