Stock Picking - Man vs Cat
Their trading decisions were key: at the end of the final quarter they swapped Mulberry for Aviva and Betfair for Tesco. In the final quarter, Aviva's share price increased by 17% (compared with a rise of only 6.6% for Mulberry during that time) and Tesco rose by 1.2% (far superior to a fall in the Betfair share price of 5.4%).
On a similar subject here's an interesting book I recently read (it's available for free download on the homepage of the author's website):
http://monkeywithapin.com/contents/
http://monkeywithapin.com/contents/
Looks interesting.
Here are some predictions by high profile commentators that were completely out:
http://www.businessinsider.com/dow-jone ... 013-3?op=1
Jeff
Here are some predictions by high profile commentators that were completely out:
http://www.businessinsider.com/dow-jone ... 013-3?op=1
Jeff
switesh wrote:On a similar subject here's an interesting book I recently read (it's available for free download on the homepage of the author's website):
http://monkeywithapin.com/contents/
Hi Jeff,
Yeah, some of the ""experts"" on that list that base their entire decision purely on Technical levels do seem a bit silly without looking broadly on the underlying businesses & human behavior (which is where the core focus should be).
On a side note:
I was a bit amused to see the big 'G' (George Soros) on that list. I find his lecture series on Financial Markets & Reflexivity, immensely stimulating.
Though, I think if Cats and Monkeys knew what they were actually doing by stock-picking (trying to find the best furry mice and bananas in their world) they'd be more likely exhibit similar behavioral characteristic traits that humans do in the stock market.
Yeah, some of the ""experts"" on that list that base their entire decision purely on Technical levels do seem a bit silly without looking broadly on the underlying businesses & human behavior (which is where the core focus should be).
On a side note:
I was a bit amused to see the big 'G' (George Soros) on that list. I find his lecture series on Financial Markets & Reflexivity, immensely stimulating.
Though, I think if Cats and Monkeys knew what they were actually doing by stock-picking (trying to find the best furry mice and bananas in their world) they'd be more likely exhibit similar behavioral characteristic traits that humans do in the stock market.
But that assumes that fundamentals are useful for prediction purposes, when the cat study and other studies suggest that's not the case.switesh wrote:Hi Jeff,
Yeah, some of the ""experts"" on that list that base their entire decision purely on Technical levels do seem a bit silly without looking broadly on the underlying businesses & human behavior (which is where the core focus should be).
I would draw an analogy with horse racing. There is a tiny group of people who are good enough at form reading to beat the Betfair odds. However, the vast majority of people don't stand a prayer, including leading commentators. I suspect the same applies to the stock market.
Jeff
I bet somebody that I could beat a PEP (remember those) over a ten year period and the winner would keep the value of the PEP.
I trashed it but using some really simple stock picking techniques based on fundamental.
Cats and monkey are always likely to perform well now and again due to the variabilty of returns but they shouldn't win over very long time periods.
My bet on the PEP was that fees would deflate the peformance so much that I would beat it without too much trouble.
I trashed it but using some really simple stock picking techniques based on fundamental.
Cats and monkey are always likely to perform well now and again due to the variabilty of returns but they shouldn't win over very long time periods.
My bet on the PEP was that fees would deflate the peformance so much that I would beat it without too much trouble.