Hi
I am relatively new to sports arb trading and have a question.
I am trying to identify the sort of factors to look for in horse racing in the morning with a view to leaving BA to trade in my absence.
I have tried the following:
1.particular race types (Handicap, non-handicap etc.)
2.Value of race (e.g. >£5,000 turnover and/or value of race)
3. % of money bet on favourite relative to the overall total bet on the race.
4.Number of runners
5.Favourite's price
6.Price of second (and third etc) favourites relative to favourite.
I can't seem to identify any logic when trawling through past races. I trade the forex markets also (not using BA) and it seems easy(!) - I look for good, but not wild, voaltility in a particular pair and only trade that pair provided the spread is small.
The problem with races in the morning is that I cannot id which races will be most volatile (although my experience so far does not show this is a particular way to go).
Without giving away any individually developed secret trader's edge, can anyone give at least a few pointers to save many months (years?) of trial and error?
Thanks
Ideal races for scalping
When I scalp I look for these factors. Although there are many ways to scalp a market
1) Liquidity
2) Stability
If you are automating you need to be sure you're on the right side of a book with something underneath you.
My scalping races are high liquidity and very low prices. This works best for me. If the market is not moving. i.e trading in a very narrow range possibly between 3 and 4 ticks, these are favourable to me.
I recorded a video of a race yesterday. The fav was at 1.43 and I said "I don't like these races, I never seem to do very well blah blah, so I am going to show you how I scalp". After a couple of failures the horse started to drift and I caught the swing up to 1.54. If want to see it it's here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfER7XVFyv4
Not sure if this is what your after. But I think a good starting place is under 1.5 with at least 40K traded. Markets like tennis, soccer match odds may be good hunting grounds. The bigger the price the more pain you will feel if you get it wrong. Plus smaller prices will mean you can push more money through.
1) Liquidity
2) Stability
If you are automating you need to be sure you're on the right side of a book with something underneath you.
My scalping races are high liquidity and very low prices. This works best for me. If the market is not moving. i.e trading in a very narrow range possibly between 3 and 4 ticks, these are favourable to me.
I recorded a video of a race yesterday. The fav was at 1.43 and I said "I don't like these races, I never seem to do very well blah blah, so I am going to show you how I scalp". After a couple of failures the horse started to drift and I caught the swing up to 1.54. If want to see it it's here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfER7XVFyv4
Not sure if this is what your after. But I think a good starting place is under 1.5 with at least 40K traded. Markets like tennis, soccer match odds may be good hunting grounds. The bigger the price the more pain you will feel if you get it wrong. Plus smaller prices will mean you can push more money through.
Thanks for very helpful replies - ! think I was looking for answers to imponderables!
I found some useful stuff in the 'Scalping for beginners' area. I did look before but must have got distracted as I missed the most useful bits! Well worth reading if anyone is following this post. Here is a link:
viewtopic.php?p=50326#p50326 which should take you to one of several inputs.
I guess the stability bit is what I find difficult - all the demo clips have it but I can't seem to find it - will start looking today. I just felt that with it all happening in the last 5 minutes how long do I wait for stability?
Again, thanks for input.
I found some useful stuff in the 'Scalping for beginners' area. I did look before but must have got distracted as I missed the most useful bits! Well worth reading if anyone is following this post. Here is a link:
viewtopic.php?p=50326#p50326 which should take you to one of several inputs.
I guess the stability bit is what I find difficult - all the demo clips have it but I can't seem to find it - will start looking today. I just felt that with it all happening in the last 5 minutes how long do I wait for stability?
Again, thanks for input.