If you have read my previous posts you will find my modus operandi is to find an opposable favourite and then look for value elsewhere. Some times it will be to lay the favourite, whichever way I can find an edge.
This race is not a great one for favourites, in fact it can be something of a graveyard for them. However, I have spent a lot of time trying to find a weakness in My Tent or Yours and I have failed. This horse absolutely hosed up in the Betfair Hurdle and he beat some decent rivals making them look like trees in the process.
I am not saying this is the proverbial good thing but in my book he's an Even money shot so the 2/1 on offer is very generous. Now in this race we may find one too good but whichever horse it is it will require a near 12-14lb improvement and that is asking a lot. I really think this horse is 10-14lb better than his nearest rival BUT he is not a machine and things can go wrong. If he has a clear round then I think he will win.
If you want to trade then I see it being run as follows. I hope AP McCoy will get him settled and I expect him to be held up mid to back field out of trouble. They often go off lickety-spit in this race and that should play into his hands. I expect to see McCoy produce him off the turn for home and I think he may still be on the bridle (I Hope!)
Because it is such a premier race I would not lump on but I feel he is worth a bet pre-race and look to trade out in running. I even think he will be odds-on turning for home if all goes to plan.
Good luck if you play.
Cheltenham 12/3/13 Supreme Novices Hurdle
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Thanks....now you have set a high standard for me!mugsgame wrote:Great write up JG as always.
For any newbies JG is THE most respected form expert on the forum. When he speaks I get on.
Cheers JG
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well I was almost correct. He did touch odds on as they turned for home and he then went as low as 1.51 but he could not pass the worthy winner.
He didn't settle which was his ultimate downfall, you cannot run with the choke out in a premier race and expect to win the race.
He didn't settle which was his ultimate downfall, you cannot run with the choke out in a premier race and expect to win the race.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Peter...no problem, mine's a cold one the next time we meet up!!
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
great post jolly ,
pity im working days all week and will miss the fun..
marc
please keep them coming.
pity im working days all week and will miss the fun..
marc
please keep them coming.