Riddle 3

[PeterLe]

Morning!

Ok here's one...I've opened a new thread so they dont all get mixed up...

A man works in an office block, each night he leaves work at random times and heads out to the main road to catch his bus.
He is currently seeing two girlfriends, one lives in the North of the city and one lives in the South. When he arrives at the road after work, he decides that the fairest way of spending equal time with each is to jump on the first bus that arrives irrespective of which way the bus is going. Bus A goes North, Bus B goes South

The buses run in each direction every 60 mins are are very punctual

After a month, he works out that he has seen the girl in the North much more that that the girl in the South. How can this be given that the buses run with the same frequency? (I have discussed this one with Peter (so dont give it away!), because you can apply this to Horse racing too as an angle...or I think you can !)..

[gazuty]

My thought.

The buses are very punctual.

But I assume the man himself is not as reliable. Hence he generally gets to the bus stop at the same time. When he goes at that time, the bus to the North always arrives shortly thereafter on time.

But, when he is late, well depending on how late etc, then sometimes it is the bus to the South.

[PeterLe]

No!
Lets assume that he leaves work anytime between say 4pm and 6pm, totally at random.The buses always arrive at the same time each and every day. He just jumps on the first one that arrives...

[Iron]

Is the answer 'randomness'?

If you were to toss a coin 30 times, it wouldn't be a great surprise if there were far more heads than tails (or vice versa).

It's only over a much larger number of tosses that things even themselves out.

Jeff

[gazuty]

Is the answer 'randomness'?



Jeff

So a classic roulette simulation. Can there be 16 reds in a row? Of course their can.

Does my strategy lead to earning the overround over the long run. You betcha.

[OnGoldWires]

Because the buses are going every 60 minutes, the assumption is that they depart 30 minutes apart, but that is not stated. If for example the North bus goes on the hour and the South bus goes at 5 past the hour, there will be 55 minutes in the hour in which the next bus is the North bus and only 5 minutes when the next bus is the South bus. So on average he will be going North 11 times to every 1 trip to the South.

[Photon]

It’s got to do with the total journey time of Bus A compared with Bus B. If the journey of Bus A is longer than an hour then more of Bus A will be on the road in a given hour and therefore probability of catching this bus is likely to be higher.

[JollyGreen]

Does it involve a chicken crossing the road?

[PeterLe]

Because the buses are going every 60 minutes, the assumption is that they depart 30 minutes apart, but that is not stated. If for example the North bus goes on the hour and the South bus goes at 5 past the hour, there will be 55 minutes in the hour in which the next bus is the North bus and only 5 minutes when the next bus is the South bus. So on average he will be going North 11 times to every 1 trip to the South.

Hi This is the right answer...

Although the buses arrived at each bus stop every 60 minutes, Bus B arrived at 5:00, 6:00 7:00 etc, whist Bus A arrived at 5:05, 6:05 and 7:05, so even though the frequency was exactly the same, the window of opportunity to head South was a narrow 5 minute slot.

If you take this scenario and apply it to horse racing then, some event could occur 50% of the time (Similar to flipping a coin), but the timing is the differential and crucial factor. On paper, mathematically and logically, it could never work..but it can do

in the above scenario, when you knew that the buses arrived like clock work at equal intervals, the mathematicians amongst us may have said that over 1000 days he would visit each girlfriend equally as that is the logical answer..
Eg; total random example.. e.g. you may find the the 3rd fav at Ling failed to produce a profit over a 1000 races, irrespective of whether you backed or laid it (taking commission into account), but by applying some variable (call it timing or what ever), you may be able to turn a losing strategy into a winning one. It could be that when a particular jockey rode that 3rd fav it turns out in profit long term?
I think there many variables (some much more influential than others), Im sure a lot of people who run automated strategies utilise this variable, consciously or subconsciously; I know I do.
I posted something on here a while ago about building a strategy..if you start out with something (anything) and then hone and refine it over time, that variable will start to come to the forefront. Sometimes you never break through that profit line; but sometimes you do...

Regards
Peter
PS I think I may I may have visited them alternative nights myself and hedged my bets!!

[gutuami]

The buses run in each direction every 60 mins are are very punctual

Although the buses arrived at each bus stop every 60 minutes, Bus B arrived at 5:00, 6:00 7:00 etc, whist Bus A arrived at 5:05....

that's not fair Peter.

I was thinking of human emotions/behavior. Over time he liked the one from North more and developed a feeling of time. bla bla bla..

[PeterLe]

I think he ended up marrying the bus driver in the end ..and she lived in the West!

[gutuami]

[gazuty]

I really liked this one and its implications. Thanks Peter.