Will they ever learn?

[JollyGreen]

I am not bothering with the racing today but I was keen on the first race. I was out with the family at my favourite coffee shop and as is normal I went to the nearby bookies to watch the race.

Now if you looked at the bare ratings of this race you would have to make Prince of Burma favourite. On official ratings he has 11lb in hand of his closest rated rival Albahan.

I am a cynical old git when it comes to races like this and I prefer to take a different POV to the crowd. To me it is quite simple "Why, if this is a true 78 rated horse, is it running in a selling stakes at Lingfield?"

I can think of one real important reason; he probably has a problem and isn't really that good. So he could have a dodgy leg or a breathing issue that means he's hard to train and never produces his best.

When you think like that it makes you more cautious when it comes to taking 4/9 about a potential dodge pot. Clearly the mugs in the bookies don't think my way and they were lining up to pile into it. I said to the guy next to me that the price was crazy in this race. The replies were pretty much universal "He's a certainty and a great way to get the betting off to a flying start!"

Now he only lost by a neck BUT he lost. The mugs kept saying "how unlucky" or "that's typical of my luck!" but I don't understand where the luck part comes into it? Many had blown all their money and streamed out of the bookies but a few remained. Then I was given the craziest comment I have heard for many a year (I've heard it before)

"Well what did you back? At least we were brave enough to have a bet unlike you who did nothing"

Therein lies the answer. Sometimes it is better to do nothing and you'll be better off! I wanted to reply "Replace brave with stupid and realise I've lost nothing whereas you've lost everything!" but I bit my lip, smiled and returned to collect my family.

It will happen again and again but I still have to shake my head in disbelief!

[steven1976]

As I'm currently stranded in Burma for a 3rd week, I wish I had read this earlier. The API has about an 18 second delay so I could have at least backed him and joined that crowd!

[giulio2010]

just by following your reasoning I thought That mysterial Also was too short and it actually lost.. This one was obviously harder to lose as there was only one good opposition but it did lose..

[JollyGreen]

There are plenty of opportunities like these almost every day. The main reason they work is because bookies are not stupid and they know if they set-up a crazy low price many "mugs" will think "this is such a low price compared to the rest it just has to win!" If the money then comes for it, even more join the stampede and they think "now it really is a certainty"....which of course it isn't!

[JollyGreen]

As I'm currently stranded in Burma for a 3rd week, I wish I had read this earlier. The API has about an 18 second delay so I could have at least backed him and joined that crowd!

Sadly Steven this was after the event as I was out and about.

[steven1976]

Just out of interest, is there any story why the horse is called the "king of burma'?

It seems everyone wants a piece of Burma these days. We cant make stuff quick enough anymore as everyone wants a "made in Burma" tag on it. Or so it seems.

[haichless]

Doesnt this apply to all sports, and situations where you have a fancied heavily odds on fav, the market tends to over react and produce odds that are too low. Racing, football, tennis, rugby anything which is punted by the masses.
I tend to oppose such favourites, but ive no stats to say whether long term this is the correct decision or not, it seems to be, and value betting principles would say it should be. But I dont think doing so makes me superior, im just playing the percentages.
Its also interesting,to see the disdain that many seasoned bettors have for people backing such favourites, I am sure a professional psychologist can tell me why that is, but its very prevelant on forums such as this.

[giulio2010]

In the other hand I would not mind backing Mubtadi for a INPLAY strategy...I have already set a clousure at 1,81..
My only concern is the fact that this horse has made is best performances in class6 races if I am not wrong. I am not an expert ofc, I don't know what difference will make one grade below on this poor standards!
However I have also backed Chrissycross at 11 with the clousure in PLAY at 6,4..
Bare in mind this is for in PLAY strategys..the average return should be around 60% up to 75% of the stake.
This is not an advice, I am just sharing my position in the last race..
good luck

[JollyGreen]

Doesnt this apply to all sports, and situations where you have a fancied heavily odds on fav, the market tends to over react and produce odds that are too low. Racing, football, tennis, rugby anything which is punted by the masses.
I tend to oppose such favourites, but ive no stats to say whether long term this is the correct decision or not, it seems to be, and value betting principles would say it should be. But I dont think doing so makes me superior, im just playing the percentages.
Its also interesting,to see the disdain that many seasoned bettors have for people backing such favourites, I am sure a professional psychologist can tell me why that is, but its very prevalent on forums such as this.

It does occur in other sports but the difference is the fact a horse is involved. The race will be priced by the bookies who know to always undersell the odds. Because most punters think odds are 1 3 5 7 9 they simply see the short price and assume it must win. Trust me I have spent many years in betting shops since around 1967 and very little has changed apart from TV and a smoking ban.

The bookies know that and so they take advantage of it. I would be interested to know the price on Betfair because I was out at the time and didn't look.

Yes of course you get upsets in football, rugby, cricket etc but they are true shocks whereas results in sellers/claimers with supposed "good things" are normal part of racing yet people fall for it every time. Horses cannot tell us they have a problem but sports people can or someone lets it slip. In racing it is hushed up because connections want shot of a horse. Before you ask, yes I have had shares in a horse and I have known it has a problem and is unlikely to win. We would not disguise this from a potential buyer, they would have to decide if they want to put the time and effort in. Despite us knowing it cannot possibly win the price still shortens in and many join the gamble thinking "somebody knows something!" Of course they don't know anything but that is how it works!

[JollyGreen]

Just out of interest, is there any story why the horse is called the "king of burma'?

It seems everyone wants a piece of Burma these days. We cant make stuff quick enough anymore as everyone wants a "made in Burma" tag on it. Or so it seems.

Coincidence in terms of name but with the Dictatorship supposedly losing its grip and Aung San Suu Kyi being a more friendly face to the west then I assume the opposition to products stamped "Made in Burma" is slowly waning, especially the exotic woods. One of my family is a missionary and she has been trying to help in Burma for years. It is supposedly better these days but she is still having problems.

[giulio2010]

Tx for the 100s compliments I recieved!!
I have just picked the winner and the 2nd place in the last race!

[haichless]

I see where you are coming from, Jg.
Yes a horse cant speak,etc, but in football and rugby, more often than you would think, players play whilst injured or not 100%. Punters/bookies dont know they are injured in some way,sometimes not even the manager or trainer because the player wants to play in a big game, or even in mundame games because he would have to admit,he had a drink last night or his tummys dickie,or he didnt get to bed till 2, or couldnt sleep. A whole host of secrets. Yes its 11,13,15 players so the impact is not as great, but we all know one mistake one pulled out of challenge can lead to a goal a try, which can change a game.
two trials ive run on horses and football, opposing favs within similar criteria have produced the opposite effect to what we are discussing,(horses one lost money,footy very slight profit) so like all things in the betting world, it never seems to be as clear cut as we might imagine, certainly not as i imagine anyway.
good luck.

[giulio2010]

I would be interested to know the price on Betfair because I was out at the time and didn't look.

Hi Jolly, it was not a good gambling opportunity but was a cracking trade pre off.
The horse touched the 1,2 in Play if I am not wrong!!
I have backed the horse at 1,67 10-15 minutes before the off, I had 20 ticks offset which have been matched 2 minutes before the off.
There is a picture below, so you can see how low it was paid pre-off..

[JollyGreen]

I would interested to know what criteria you used to analyse the racing for your system?

I don't pretend you can perform this blind but as I said in response to Giuolio's reply, these opportunities do occur almost every day.

Sometimes you must read between the lines as there is often a stark clue to be found. Prince of Burma is now 5 so there is no real improvement likely to come. He's run 23 times and produced only 3 wins, one of which was one of his maidens as a 2yo. That is a worrying set of results when you look at it. He was also with John Gosden who clearly is a top trainer and the fact he discarded him is also a negative in my opinion. He had back to back wins in January 2012 and then 12 more races produced nothing. That is IMHO a clear sign of a horse with a problem. Even if you took just one negative then 4/9 should ring the alarm bells!

The main difference between a footballer, rugby player or cricketer playing injured is they are just one in a team of many whereas a horse is the be all and end all. I do appreciate many players want to play and will do so through the pain but keeping that under wraps is hard.

A good friend of mine is a caddy for a World class golfer and he once developed a back strain which restricted his swing. The market already knew of the issue and his price had flown out! Loose lips sink ships and all that!

[haichless]

the criteria were quite broad with a view to honing in.
e.g horses, must be fav between specific odds on odds.
between specific course distances.
specific field sizes
between specific LTO results
between specific days since run..
etc, etc, etc.
i keep returning to them along with many to refine, tweak, change etc..
its an interesting challenge, and of course you learn things just by doing it, succeed or fail.