Will they ever learn?

The sport of kings.
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2047
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

haichless wrote:the criteria were quite broad with a view to honing in.
e.g horses, must be fav between specific odds on odds.
between specific course distances.
specific field sizes
between specific LTO results
between specific days since run..
etc, etc, etc.
i keep returning to them along with many to refine, tweak, change etc..
its an interesting challenge, and of course you learn things just by doing it, succeed or fail.
Have you read this book? Winning without Thinking by Nick Mordin

I've had the privilege of exchanging data and ideas via e-mail with him. Many call him the Nutty Professor but he's a true genius in my eyes, I have learned so much from him.
giulio2010
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am

JollyGreen wrote:I would interested to know what criteria you used to analyse the racing for your system?
Prince of Burma has given signals that the horse may have steam, despite the gambling conclusion, which I totally agree with about being too short.
However history showed that Prince of Burma have been shortening in similar scenarios at lingfield before today and between 2012-13 and did quite bad in terms of odds at kempton and generally on turf. I had the stop and loss ready to fire up but luckily I was right and I let run the odds down to 1,47 for 20 ticks profits. It was all preset for 20 ticks profit but ofc if the odds would have drift back I was happy to take even a 10 ticks profit.
On the other race I have done my research as well in term of history. Mubtadi has done quite well in term of same distance in play. I had not much infos about pre-off so i decided that It was a good in play opportunity. The horse is also on fire this year. I checked websites and other things to make that decision. History suggested 30-50 ticks profits in play. I have also choose chrisscross for the same criteria. This horse has done well 11-12 times out 16 in all weather races and on the same distance. History suggested between 20 to 30 ticks in play..There are other things that I check sometimes and then...Depending of the race and the class. I don't trade 5-6 grade horse racing as much as 1-2-3 class unless I have good infos in hand!
giulio2010
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am

Sorry Jolly, I thought you have asked me about with what criteria i search my horses for my strategy. Forget about my explanation! :lol:
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2047
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

giulio2010 wrote:Sorry Jolly, I thought you have asked me about with what criteria i search my horses for my strategy. Forget about my explanation! :lol:
No I like to read what others are doing.
haichless
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 5:04 pm

cheers jolly green, thats right up my street...
i cant believe I didnt know about it.
Thanks, I will look forward to reading it.
Was it worthwhile communicating with the author via e-mail.
That sounds like a treat,that not every author would be polite enough to do.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

haichless wrote:Doesnt this apply to all sports, and situations where you have a fancied heavily odds on fav, the market tends to over react and produce odds that are too low. Racing, football, tennis, rugby anything which is punted by the masses.
I've been reading the blog relating to a book called All Marketers Are Liars: http://sethgodin.typepad.com/all_marketers_are_liars/

The basic premise of the book is that people often buy stuff based on a narrative. For example, they buy mineral water not because there's any scientific evidence that it's good for you, but because the narrative that it's good for you is seductive, and you go with it. And as I understand it, the narrative comes into existence because it is initially adopted by a group of people - people who are open to new ideas - and then social proof kicks in and the belief spreads.

I suspect the above is exactly what goes on with heavily tipped horses every day. I think the challenge is to distinguish between the horses who deserve the hype and those who don't...

Jeff
elcapitain
Posts: 45
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm

Jeff.

Many people profit from backing fancied horses.

I Would at a guess it would be a similar method in looking for false favourites.

One thing is certain though is that you would need to beat sp to be profitable.

Another note, is anyone using horseracebase? (To any good effect)
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