Southwell 3:00 25/03/13

[JollyGreen]

On the back of my post "Will they ever learn" I was having a quick scan of tomorrow's cards. In this 3:00 we have an awful maiden with a favourite priced at around 2.0

For me to back something at 2.0 or below then I need to see everything pretty much in its favour. I do not want to find negatives or unknowns as this will force me to pass. I know plenty of serious punters who think the same and this often can affect the prices. I am not saying this horse cannot win, I am merely saying I could not back it. Basically when you get doubt you get a drift at some point as players question the value of a price. Obviously it depends on how the early market shapes up but with the doubts listed below, any support for another runner will create a drift.

This horse has the best form on offer but the following is a concern for me.

1. The horse has never run on this slow fibresand surface. The sire produced fast ground offspring so that adds a worry.
2. This horse set a steady pace last time and failed to see out the mile on the faster Lingfield surface. The time of that race was nothing special so that is another worry.
3. The horse has a weird action where it points its toe but then seems to curl it back. The near fore looks to have poor conformation as it almost swings outside the line of the leg. This action together with the near fore action is also a worry.

With those 3 negatives you'd say it was a definite lay but let's try and find something to beat it with.

Corn Snow - now with Mark Johnston, a trainer I have a lot of respect for. Would not settle before so hopefully they have ironed that out. A Godolphin outcast that may do better with Johnston

Helmsley Flyer - not much to go on really and first run wasn't special. Breeding suggests trip and surface will not suit

Zaitsev - unraced but breeding would suggest both trip and surface could suit. A real unknown.

Una Bella Cosa - Rated 52, big shock if this wins, not sure it would win if it started now!

So you can see how hard it is to take a position in this race. I would normally suggest Lay to Back if we were looking to oppose it with a safety net but this horse front runs so the price will probably contract.

You could wait until the race starts and it this horse gets a soft lead take a back position with a view the price will contract in running.

On a pre-race view, if no money comes for Corn Snow or Zaitsev do not be surprised to see this steam in below 2.0 I really cannot see any money coming for the other two and they could be drifters.

This shows how many things you have to consider and for me if I was punting I would put a line straight through this race.

[giulio2010]

The odds are low, simply because there are currently only five horses in the race and none of them has the experience or the strenght to win it. The favorite though in the last race have touched 1.12 in play. The selection is short and hard to pick like you said, but perhaps the only horse who raced this surface and these distances before is Una bella cosa ....... which may simply be a donkey disguised as a horse. He disfigured in both its outputs to southwell but did not do that bad at Wolv..So we can't rule this horse out as possible winner, it may be low rated but it's the only horse that ran in these circumstances..Crazy isnt?
On the other hand we have an unknown horse that might not be put there randomly and could find support in the betting, I am talking about zaitsev ... I think this horse could be the most plausible opposition despite having not form yet in Uk. For me, this is a game to play in play with three selections and with 3 different closures in running. If I choose Zaitsev and Indias Song, I back them at the best available prize with 30 ticks offset for the favorite and 50 ticks offset for Zaitsev to keep in play. If I add the 3rd selection, Una bella cosa ( very unlikely) I set the horse for 20 ticks profit in play..
We will see 2morrow...good night..
P.S. My 1st choice is Zaitsev..

[JollyGreen]

Indias Song.jpg

I have posted the current chart for India's Song. As you can see the niggles/doubts about this horse show it isn't really a 2.0 chance as first offered. I wouldn't be surprised to see this reach 2.50 or ~ 2.62 later BUT please be careful if you trade the drift.

I find that a price drifts but then it reaches a "value" price and serious players will step in. I could write 5000 words to try and guide you on the likely "value" price and still be wrong. On this particular runner I would try and play it like this.

The controlling factor will be the price of both Corn Snow and Helmsley Flyer. For example, Corn Snow has already seen support from ~6.0 to ~3.5 and Helmsley Flyer from ~7.6 into a low of ~5.0. IMHO this is caused by a lack of confidence in the favourite and some confidence (speculation probably) about the two mentioned above. It's a combination of the two and to be honest they are linked.

So as a rough guide.

If Corn Fox gets to ~3.30 and Helmsley stays around but above ~5.0 then the favourite is very likely to peak at around 2.50.

If Corn Fox is supported into ~3.00 and/or Helmsley Flyer gets a bump to just below 5.0 do not be surprised to see the favourite head out to 2.62 where it may stop and reverse.

Just remember you can see the inverse of this effect. So if support for the other two wanes and they drift back to ~3.70 and ~6.00 respectively you will see the favourite drop to 2.26 for example.

Please please please, use small stakes and be aware of the price interaction. These are guidelines and everything could go South if one horse is smashed in the market. I am trying to offer a view of what I expect to see and what happens on a lot of markets. It is not written in stone!

Good luck, please feel free to ask questions or offer your own thoughts.

Share the knowledge!!!

[giulio2010]

I would be happy to pay Indias song from 2,4 to 3.0
If the horse will keep drifting it's a bonus because it will get the value that horse deserve! However I have backed Zaitsev between 18.5 to 16.5 with small amounts but I am already in profit. If Zaitsev will steam back around 8.0 the profit would be greater then I expected with little money at risk. In that case I can achieve the in play strategy with free money!

[JollyGreen]

Just had a quick look at the price of India's Song and it's peaked at 2.62 for now which is around the mark I mentioned earlier. However, what's happened is some support has come for Zaitsev and the other two have held station.

[giulio2010]

Just had a quick look at the price of India's Song and it's peaked at 2.62

There is so little money that with one click I can push the price back to 2.02-2.1..
It's a sign though that may drift even further but at the moment I am buying at the rate of £5 each tick towards 3.0

[herbie]

thank you both..this is a great insight.. you have taught me some much..thanks again

[JollyGreen]

Just had a quick look at the price of India's Song and it's peaked at 2.62

There is so little money that with one click I can push the price back to 2.02-2.1..
It's a sign though that may drift even further but at the moment I am buying at the rate of £5 each tick towards 3.0

Yes so could I but if the market perceives it as incorrect it will soon drift back out again.

[giulio2010]

Yes so could I but if the market perceives it as incorrect it will soon drift back out again.

I am not crazy enough to even try that....I know the conseguences if I did it...I was just kidding...Meanwhile the prices are taking shape...
...I may have to apply the in play strategy and with my money as Zaitsev jumped back on 16/1
Fingers crossed!

[giulio2010]

I have just picked the steam I was looking for....FREE bet for the in play strategy!
NICE

[JollyGreen]

InidasSong drift.png

For me to back something at 2.0 or below then I need to see everything pretty much in its favour. I do not want to find negatives or unknowns as this will force me to pass. I know plenty of serious punters who think the same and this often can affect the prices..............basically when you get doubt you get a drift at some point as players question the value of a price. Obviously it depends on how the early market shapes up but with the doubts listed below, any support for another runner will create a drift.

You can see how the drift occurs..if there is doubt the price will often move out!

[JollyGreen]

More importantly do not listed to Matt Chapman on At the Adverts! What he knows about horse racing could be written on the back of a postage stamp and you'd still have room for your name and address.

He started off by saying "this is the maiden I would expect India's Song to win or she isn't going to win that much" He failed to bother with the fact she is unproven on the surface, her breeding suggests it would not suit and her run last time suggests she would not get home.

She then was stuffed so he tried to blame it on connections holding her up. I didn't expect that but I can fully see why they did it. As mentioned above, there is doubt about her getting the trip on this surface so rather than sit in front waiting to be shot at they tried to hold her up to try and get the trip. She failed but Chapman slates them and tries to cover his @rse by saying "they know better than me!" Well Mr Chapman that is the most truthful thing you have ever said!!!

This shows that you must always paddle your own canoe. Do not listen to the people in the media, they often have little or no knowledge and they have another hidden agenda!

[giulio2010]

I always said if I mix your predictions with mine or viceversa, I would double up my profits..It's incredible.
I did not lay Indias song ( very Poor race btw) but still managed to make a cracking result without backing the winner..Sometimes I feel it's all crazy..
Ps here below why I made a cracking result.
PS2..Nice one Jolly....dont worrie about that chap, you have proved enough here your capacitys. You have many followers for a reason.