cheers lagos i will
the other bet they had for today was levante v sevilla which has just finished.
their prediction was over 2.5,it ended 1-0..
so its the usual predictive form for these guys
thats 5 pts lost over 8 bets...
they do have predictions from their tool for tomorrow.
so heres hoping, for mr mugsgames recommendation of a site/sites to use.
You would never have guessed he knows the vendors now would you.
beware false prophets (or in this case false profits)
Football profiling (mugs)
Hi Jeff,
Interesting website. Must say it caught my attention. Out of this week’s games I had 26 on my spread sheet that I had looked at through Betform. I compared them to Rateform and hit 20 matches. Out of the 6 it is a tie with 3 to betform and 3 to rateform. Rateform got every PL game right.
So who do they fancy between Villa and Pool, well they agree again, advantage Villa.
Interesting website. Must say it caught my attention. Out of this week’s games I had 26 on my spread sheet that I had looked at through Betform. I compared them to Rateform and hit 20 matches. Out of the 6 it is a tie with 3 to betform and 3 to rateform. Rateform got every PL game right.
So who do they fancy between Villa and Pool, well they agree again, advantage Villa.
Thanks Shamrock. 
Personally, I don't use websites like these to find value though. Whilst the market sometimes gets it wrong, if the market price and the form-based odds are at variance, I take the view that the market knows more than me, and that there may be a good reason for that.
Jeff
Personally, I don't use websites like these to find value though. Whilst the market sometimes gets it wrong, if the market price and the form-based odds are at variance, I take the view that the market knows more than me, and that there may be a good reason for that.
Jeff
Shamrock wrote:Hi Jeff,
Interesting website.
from yesterday also
In summary, this looks a very tough game to call and I like the look of the draw at around 3.35 as I can see Torino keeping up their excellent home head to head record to Napoli. I also think this will be a very tight affair and Under 2.25 goals looks a reasonable shout at 1.91 and will be my play for this match RESULT 3-5!!!!!
Today
Villa v liverpool
prediction was Villa +0.75 goals at 2's
so thats two more for the loss pot.
so far we have 10 recommendations of which 9 were losers. we are -6.7pts
In summary, this looks a very tough game to call and I like the look of the draw at around 3.35 as I can see Torino keeping up their excellent home head to head record to Napoli. I also think this will be a very tight affair and Under 2.25 goals looks a reasonable shout at 1.91 and will be my play for this match RESULT 3-5!!!!!
Today
Villa v liverpool
prediction was Villa +0.75 goals at 2's
so thats two more for the loss pot.
so far we have 10 recommendations of which 9 were losers. we are -6.7pts
Let's say that the service is profitable overall.
Once enough people start using it as a result of its profitability, it will cease to be profitable.
Edges generally only last until the market finds out about them...
Jeff
Once enough people start using it as a result of its profitability, it will cease to be profitable.
Edges generally only last until the market finds out about them...
Jeff
haichless wrote:consty i agree a larger sample is needed, but as an ex pro reviewer, i can honestly say from experience that when a service/review kicks off this badly it is rare for it to turn around.
I have no idea if this is profitable or not, but value betting as mentioned by others is not a short term thing, so it’s more than possible a few losing bets can be overturned over the next few weeks and months, only time will tell i suppose.haichless wrote:consty i agree a larger sample is needed, but as an ex pro reviewer, i can honestly say from experience that when a service/review kicks off this badly it is rare for it to turn around. But this could be the one that proves the rule.
Out of interest what if the opposite was true, if you were reviewing a roulette or a martingale system for example, you may well find yourself in profit in the short term, but unfortunately as we all know this would not last.
So i guess what im asking you is as a pro reviewer,
at what point do you decide to give a positive or a negative review ???.
Surely there are as many systems / services that start off badly and turn good as there are systems that start of good and turn bad ?.
If your only in it for the very short term the reviews are not necessarily going to be accurate reflection of reality. Some unprofitable systems may get the thumbs up whilst other winning systems a thumbs down.
Im just curious to know how it all works
latest from the guys
"As tempting as it is to back Fulham I still feel there is some value in backing over 2.5 goals, especially when we see how both sides have performed against similar opposition. My play for this match will be Over 2.5 goals at 1.92."
so thats a WINNING PREDICTION!!!!
2-11 and -5.68pts so far
in reply to freddy,generally the time elapsed on a trial is irrelevant,its the number of bets and their type. Obviously a system that has 2 bets a week will take longer to evaluate properley than one that has 10 a week.
Looking at this one which has 11 predictions this week, it may take 2 to 3 months or more. However with systems that have a variety of bets win/lose overs/under asian etc at relatively low odds, many are around 2's give or take here, you dont find massive win/lose runs in general. From my experience already I would not be expecting great things from these guys.I have been wrong but not often. The initial performance is very poor,so a large winning run is needed to get back to break even, at the odds they are punting on.
Hope this helps.
P.s im certainly not conducting this review with my usual laser like vision and intense detail, because im doing it for fun. I dont like and we in the betting community should not tolerate charlatons.
Nor should a service be recommended without that persons connection to the service being made clear.
"As tempting as it is to back Fulham I still feel there is some value in backing over 2.5 goals, especially when we see how both sides have performed against similar opposition. My play for this match will be Over 2.5 goals at 1.92."
so thats a WINNING PREDICTION!!!!
2-11 and -5.68pts so far
in reply to freddy,generally the time elapsed on a trial is irrelevant,its the number of bets and their type. Obviously a system that has 2 bets a week will take longer to evaluate properley than one that has 10 a week.
Looking at this one which has 11 predictions this week, it may take 2 to 3 months or more. However with systems that have a variety of bets win/lose overs/under asian etc at relatively low odds, many are around 2's give or take here, you dont find massive win/lose runs in general. From my experience already I would not be expecting great things from these guys.I have been wrong but not often. The initial performance is very poor,so a large winning run is needed to get back to break even, at the odds they are punting on.
Hope this helps.
P.s im certainly not conducting this review with my usual laser like vision and intense detail, because im doing it for fun. I dont like and we in the betting community should not tolerate charlatons.
Nor should a service be recommended without that persons connection to the service being made clear.
Ok so we have 11 bets per week for 2-3 months,
so that’s what 100-150 bets, at around odds of 2.0 ?, seems like a tiny sample size to me .
I guess that’s the nature of reviews though, it’s just a very small snapshot in time.
But in this case win or lose it doesn’t really tell you anything at all i don't think, not over that period of time anyway.
I mean even if you flip a coin 100 times and give your self a massive 5% edge ,
there is still no guarantee you will come out on top over 100 bets.
Long term you would be very rich indeed and
although unlikely, for all we know this may be the same
.
so that’s what 100-150 bets, at around odds of 2.0 ?, seems like a tiny sample size to me
.I guess that’s the nature of reviews though, it’s just a very small snapshot in time.
But in this case win or lose it doesn’t really tell you anything at all i don't think, not over that period of time anyway.
I mean even if you flip a coin 100 times and give your self a massive 5% edge ,
there is still no guarantee you will come out on top over 100 bets.
Long term you would be very rich indeed and
although unlikely, for all we know this may be the same
.
Last edited by freddy on Mon Apr 01, 2013 11:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
freddy I agree 100-150 bets isnt enough, but if we extrapolate the figures as you are doing saying its not enough of a sample.
the result will be 26 wins 120 losses ish and -72 pts ish...
doyou think many punters are going to at say even £5 a point be praepared to stay in their at £360 loss when they are paying £50 a month for the service.You have to be a little more realistic as to what happens in reality.
Nobody even the reviewers is looking after 2 months at those figures.
even with an uplift of 50% it will still be a massive loss.
but we will see who is correct.
I will give you 12-1 that you are and they turn it around, even now..
wanna take it on???
the result will be 26 wins 120 losses ish and -72 pts ish...
doyou think many punters are going to at say even £5 a point be praepared to stay in their at £360 loss when they are paying £50 a month for the service.You have to be a little more realistic as to what happens in reality.
Nobody even the reviewers is looking after 2 months at those figures.
even with an uplift of 50% it will still be a massive loss.
but we will see who is correct.
I will give you 12-1 that you are and they turn it around, even now..
wanna take it on???
You can’t extrapolate the figures on a tiny sample like that, you will get a even more meaningless set of results.
But if results ended up like that over a 3 months period then, yeah sure it would put most people off trying it.
No of cause I will not be taking your bet
,
Lets see who's correct ???, where have I said it’s profitable ? , im not on either side.
All I have said is you can not prove something based on finding Value in a short review of a 100 or so bets that’s all,
Ive tried to illustrate my point with the 5% edge on a coin flip example.
Why not Set up a simple spreadsheet and test this, the results may surprise you.
One could certainly easily give it a bad review based on the 100 flips, but that would clearly be very wrong in the long term.
But if results ended up like that over a 3 months period then, yeah sure it would put most people off trying it.
No of cause I will not be taking your bet
, Lets see who's correct ???, where have I said it’s profitable ?
, im not on either side.All I have said is you can not prove something based on finding Value in a short review of a 100 or so bets that’s all,
Ive tried to illustrate my point with the 5% edge on a coin flip example.
Why not Set up a simple spreadsheet and test this, the results may surprise you.
One could certainly easily give it a bad review based on the 100 flips, but that would clearly be very wrong in the long term.
freddy.
money where mouth is,you seem to be defending these people.
If not I amnot seeing the neutral here....hey the performance is poor, get the good odds that it will turn out ok whilst you can and prove you believe..!!!!
strange you wont do it..
coin flip no i wouldnt be toooooo surprised at a 5% edge over 100 results, but i would be sceptical of a guy saying he used www/tail.com .....bet site and found that they won overall and even though hes not recommending them here is a link to their site, join up fee is free for month one (when you cant evaluate in that time) and then £50 a month.
without actually saying he knows them!!!!!
but I would be disappointed if this "so called" well respected trader was advertising the service based on "tails are it" to other perhaps less shrewd players without saying he was a member of tails r us!!!
hey lets play who can be the most gullable, and who can have the least integrity...
wanna play..LOL
money where mouth is,you seem to be defending these people.
If not I amnot seeing the neutral here....hey the performance is poor, get the good odds that it will turn out ok whilst you can and prove you believe..!!!!
strange you wont do it..
coin flip no i wouldnt be toooooo surprised at a 5% edge over 100 results, but i would be sceptical of a guy saying he used www/tail.com .....bet site and found that they won overall and even though hes not recommending them here is a link to their site, join up fee is free for month one (when you cant evaluate in that time) and then £50 a month.
without actually saying he knows them!!!!!
but I would be disappointed if this "so called" well respected trader was advertising the service based on "tails are it" to other perhaps less shrewd players without saying he was a member of tails r us!!!
hey lets play who can be the most gullable, and who can have the least integrity...
wanna play..LOL
A Strange comment reallyhaichless wrote:
freddy.
money where mouth is,you seem to be defending these people.
If not I amnot seeing the neutral here....hey the performance is poor, get the good odds that it will turn out ok whilst you can and prove you believe..!!!!
As you already know and Ive said many times before i have no idea if these tips are profitable or not and to be honest i don't really care , Mugsgame has already said that he doesn't use these tips anyway, he just uses the software,
so im not sure what point you trying to prove really.
But Regardless if your going to review them,
they at least deserve a fair trail,
I would have thought with you being a ex pro reviewer you would agree on this.
To be honest im not following most of this, but you seem to have missed the point about my coin fip with a 5% edge.haichless wrote: strange you wont do it..
coin flip no i wouldnt be toooooo surprised at a 5% edge over 100 results, but i would be sceptical of a guy saying he used www/tail.com .....bet site and found that they won overall and even though hes not recommending them here is a link to their site, join up fee is free for month one (when you cant evaluate in that time) and then £50 a month.
without actually saying he knows them!!!!!
but I would be disappointed if this "so called" well respected trader was advertising the service based on "tails are it" to other perhaps less shrewd players without saying he was a member of tails r us!!!
hey lets play who can be the most gullable, and who can have the least integrity...
wanna play..LOL
The point was even with things massively stacked in your favor you can still lose in the short term.
And That's all i really have to say on the subject.
If your reviews in general consist of such a tiny sample size then some unprofitable systems will be deemed profitable and some profitable deemed unprofitable, so it's all seems a bit pointless if you ask me.
Last edited by freddy on Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:19 pm, edited 3 times in total.
I'm a 60+ dinosaur, having been gambling for over 40 years. One thing I learned in that time is DO YOUR RESEARCH, learn different systems, methods, etc store/update your records. Sometimes it costs you, other times you learn yourself. Keep details of what does/does not work for you. Have different markets/systems. Losing streaks always occur, so change your markets. Staking plans are individual, choose one that suits you. Bet angel I use mainly for dutching and greening up. I can use charting and excel etc(having learned as far back as lotus- a precursor of excel)but choose not to. As soon as "its green" at a profit I want I "green up", or if my loss limit for that event is reached I still "green up". Every day there are thousands of markets, my ideology is get in and get out. BE PREPARED, and if the money is going against what "should" happen either keep out of the market or risk small amounts. (Chelsea-Man United was a good example) Why this happens is because somebody somewhere knows something that others don't. Good luck eventually like me you will over each year make money.